Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[CityofSinners]

Lula was not great but did what a clear frontrunner is supposed to do. Play defense and don't say anything that will shake up the race.

Bolsonaro also did what he was supposed to do. Be agressive and try to force a moment that changes a race he has been losing for a long time. Which he didn't really succeed in as Lula gave him no real openings and he was overagressive when his weakpoints were mentioned.

I would be surprised if this debate changes anything.

[Red Velvet]

The day after consensus seems to be that both Lula and Bolsonaro were mostly bad or mediocre at best and that Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes were the standouts.

With Lula there’s a giant danger on running on the nostalgia because people will inevitably compare you to the figure you were the past. Lula was always very combative and energetic but here he looked older and more experienced (not in a compliment tbh) in the sense even though everyone was attacking him, he tried to be soft in order to hopefully get their support in the runoff. It may have worked with Simone Tebet tbh, but it DEFINETELY did not work with Ciro Gomes though and the exchange he had with Ciro was more positive to Ciro than to himself.

That said, he should’ve attacked Bolsonaro more and he had the opportunities. The first question about corruption for example was a perfect opportunity to turn tables and go all against Bolsonaro hypocrisy on that own matter. He tried to correct that later when asking Simone Tebet about vaccination corruption schemes from the Bolsonaro government but it was too little too late and not done in a direct exchange with Bolsonaro.

What saved Lula was Bolsonaro own insanity himself. If in the start it sounded like Bolsonaro had the edge by adopting a more aggressive stance on attack-mode, it later became too uncontrolled and he sounded completely childish and unhinged when asked about the pandemic and vaccination (his main weakness) by a female journalist. He did not respond and instead used his time to offend the professional, even verbalizing afterwards that she shouldn’t victimize herself only for being a woman. She had only asked about vaccines, so he sounded insane.

So basically a weak and mediocre Lula trying to not get involved in conflict and trying to be too nice to everyone when everyone is literally trashing the hell out of him and a crazy and aggressive Bolsonaro who goes overboard on the misogyny and also says a bunch of lies and cheap attacks in order to look awesome to his base and literally no one else. Lula was kinda saved from disaster by an even worse Bolsonaro. Will be interesting to see if this affects anything on the polls, especially regarding the Female vote, which observer groups say it was the most critical of the sexist attack against journalist Vera Magalhães. Will it have ANY effect for any of the involved or are things too consolidated they cannot change much? I’m not sure yet. But if  the debate were to have any logical effect, I would expect both Lula and Bolsonaro to drop on the polls.

The distant 3rd and 4th places benefited from the leaders underperformance. Simone Tebet was considered the best overall and Ciro 2nd best, although it’s Ciro that I’m seeing who is gaining the main repercussion online. Lots of his lines viralized even among Bolsonarist segments when he attacked Lula, the response to the “You went to Paris” being the more popular. As much as Ciro was nasty and helping the Bolsonarist narrative with the attacks from Lula not always appearing in the right time IMO (in the question about women being the main example of false equivalence), the Paris line is mainly worthless outside PT segments so I think it was stupid for Lula to use it.

Ciro and Simone both had effective attacks on Lula and Bolsonaro each. But the impression overall is that Simone’s attacks were stronger and more focused against Bolsonaro, while Ciro had great lines on both but the inappropriate obsession with PT even when the question didn’t welcome this commentary definitely made him look more against Lula than against Bolsonaro. Which I will not forgive him for.

It will be interesting to see if Ciro or Simone Tebet can gain some ground after this. Bolsonaro was very impolite, the only candidate to not compliment his adversaries at the debate start and also after he ended he just left without talking to anyone while other complimented themselves. Apparently the only person Bolsonaro complimented before leaving was Ciro Gomes. Not Lula and not any of the two female candidates.

It might be the only debate we will have this cycle, like I predicted because it still was surreal we were even getting one to begin with, as no one thought Bolsonaro would have the guts to go. But he did it and now is apparently annoyed, canceling an appearance on a media that is FAVORABLE towards him and reconsidering future presences in debates:

https://www.twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1564237669885952000?t=UNgqw4KWUWi...

[Red Velvet]

New BTG/FSB poll released today

Because of the time it was made, the poll reflects the effects of the individual interviews from last week made with each candidate during Primetime TV, but it does NOT reflect the effects of yesterday’s debate yet.

Lula 43% (-2)
Bolsonaro 36% (no change)
Ciro Gomes 9% (+3)
Simone Tebet 4% (+2)
Vera Lúcia 1% (no change)
Pablo Marçal 1% (no change)

Other candidates (like Soraya Thronicke or Felipe D’Avila who both participated in yesterday’s debate) did not reach 1%.

Bolsonaro very slowly closing what was a big gap… It could be a close election in the end.

[Niemeyerite]

IMHO, Tebet won the debate, she was the best by far. But Lula won the post-debate by default: everyone is talking today about how agressive Bolsonaro is to both journalists and women, Ciro is being criticized by the left (and fairly!) for being too agressive towards PT and Lula and he just made things worse today by calling Lula senile in a tweet and then deleting it... while Lula sounded like the nice old man that doesn't like to get into fights.

[buritobr]

Lula was criticized even by his supporting base for not talking about Bolsonaro's corruption scandals. But I think this decision was correct. Since Bolsonaro's administration was a disaster in the economy, education, health, environment and foreign relations, it's not good for Lula that the main topic discussed in the campaign is corruption, since both presidents can be criticized in this theme. So, Lula is correct in focusing the debate on the quality of the administration.
The biggest Lula's error in the debate was not offering a compromise on a 50% female cabinet. He mentioned that he appointed Carmen Lucia (woman) and Joaquim Barbosa (black) to the Supreme Court and he remembered Dilma Rousseff, but he said that he could not promise a certain percentage of women and non-whites in his cabinet. I think he should have made this compromise.

Concerning Jair Bolsonaro, at the beggining, he tried to have some appeal to the median voter, but in the end, he did what he always does: he talked only to his 25% loyal supporting base. It's in his DNA.

[kaoras]

Chile sent a letter of protest because Bolsonaro accused Boric of arson lmao.

[buritobr]

Chile sent a letter of protest because Bolsonaro accused Boric of arson lmao.

It was not Bolsonaro's first diplomatic incident and it won't be the last.


https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/08/29/chile-bolsonaro-debate-boric/

[buritobr]

Group "Jews of Democracy" criticized Bolsonaro for speaking "Deus, Pátria e Família" (god, motherland and family), the moto of the Integralistas, a Brazilian far-right movement in the 1930s

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Group "Jews of Democracy" criticized Bolsonaro for speaking "Deus, Pátria e Família" (god, motherland and family), the moto of the Integralistas, a Brazilian far-right movement in the 1930s

It's not too surprising Bolsonaro would quote such a slogan.
Despite Integralism not sharing the racial views of the NSDAP, they were also profoundly anti-Semitic and I can see easily why a group called "Jews of Democracy" would have concern for the President of Brazil using a Integralist slogan.
Bolsonaro sure likes to use extreme rhetoric when he so sees it fit.
Will be nice if Lula can restore a better atmosphere if elected. Brazil has had a hard past five years....

[buritobr]

Ipec Poll, August 26th-28th, 2022 (after the interviews at Globo, before the debate)

Lula 44% (0)
Jair Bolsonaro 32% (0)
Ciro Gomes 7% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

Blank/nill: 7% (-1)
Didn't answer 6% (-1)

Runoff
Lula 50% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)

[Red Velvet]

Chile sent a letter of protest because Bolsonaro accused Boric of arson lmao.

Yeah, on the debate in order to scaremonger people about leftist governments hahaha

Chile needs to get in the line of offended countries by Brazil since Bolsonazi entered office though, because it’s huge. Bolsonaro:

- Put in charge of foreign policy people who were proudly racist against China
- Said that the US election was frauded against Trump, his son was present in White House visiting Trump the day of capitol coup attempt.
- Made fun of the French First Lady looks, comparing her to his own wife. Not to mention innumerable provocations to France, like not meeting Macron last time because Bolsonaro needed to cut in hair in the scheduled time
- Constantly offends the president of Argentina and one of his sons already mocked the fact Alberto’s son is a Drag Queen
- Not only canceled a meeting with Portugal president when he was here only because he had met with Lula, but made a public scandal about it

And that’s only the ones from top of my head because there were many more international gaffes with more countries than just those. I remember Bolivia because of something related to Jeanine Anez; some conflict with IRAN as well…

[Red Velvet]

With Angola he supported a bunch of evangelical Brazilian colonizers ripping people off after Angolans revolted against the abuse and took control.

In South Africa he nominated a giant evangelical crook for Ambassador which it never got a response from the South African government- which basically means it was rejected lol

There was ongoing tension with Nicaragua and Venezuela as well. Different specific reasons but you all can imagine the motivation.

Some stuff regarding saying Boris Johnson from UK was desperate searching for Brazil help regarding food supplies in secrete, when low stocks in UK were in the headlines, which prompted British officials to say that wasn’t true (no one knows whether it was or not until now lolz)

Way more stuff. I think the only person who really likes Bolsonaro among world leaders is Viktor Orban? Vladimir Putin also has respectful relation with him but they don’t really strike me as friends, if anything it’s just strategic for Russia to get along with more places when they need and Putin also wouldn’t care or get outraged by the stuff Bolsonaro says.

Oh I forgot, Bolsonaro also gets along well with Arab Gulf dictatorships for some reason. One of the few visits of State he did was to those countries.

[buritobr]

Group "Jews of Democracy" criticized Bolsonaro for speaking "Deus, Pátria e Família" (god, motherland and family), the moto of the Integralistas, a Brazilian far-right movement in the 1930s

It's not too surprising Bolsonaro would quote such a slogan.
Despite Integralism not sharing the racial views of the NSDAP, they were also profoundly anti-Semitic and I can see easily why a group called "Jews of Democracy" would have concern for the President of Brazil using a Integralist slogan.
Bolsonaro sure likes to use extreme rhetoric when he so sees it fit.
Will be nice if Lula can restore a better atmosphere if elected. Brazil has had a hard past five years....

Bolsonaro is the most pro Israel of all Brazilian presidents, but there is no contradiction between being friend of the recent Israeli right and performing slogans of far-right groups who were anti-semitic in the past.

[buritobr]

This is might be a dumb question given what MDB is like, but what policies/ideas is Tebet running on?

Neoliberal economic agenda, but no conservative social issues

[Red Velvet]

Ipec Poll, August 26th-28th, 2022 (after the interviews at Globo, before the debate)

Lula 44% (0)
Jair Bolsonaro 32% (0)
Ciro Gomes 7% (+1)
Simone Tebet 3% (+1)

Blank/nill: 7% (-1)
Didn't answer 6% (-1)

Runoff
Lula 50% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro 37% (+2)

Mixed feelings about this. The 3rd party candidates growth makes it even harder for Lula to win in the 1st round as he has 44% and the sum of the other candidates in this poll reached 43%. Lula has only 50,5% of the valid votes in this poll and the current trend is for this to reduce even more after the debate because of the good performance of 3rd party candidates there.

On the other hand, two weeks have passed since the last IPEC poll and there was basically no change between Lula or Bolsonaro numbers. Instead of one month and a half to change his situation (or two months and a half if we count a possible runoff), now he only has one month to change the scenario (or two if there is a runoff). Overall stabilization is not good for Bolsonaro at all, he’s the one who needs the numbers to change.

The 3rd party candidate growth benefits Bolsonaro in the sense it it makes Lula 1st round victory harder to see and buys Bolsonaro more time with an extra month to change the election course.

But it’s becoming clear that unless there’s a last moment “Voto Útil” movement from Ciro and Tebet voters towards Lula, there will certainly be a runoff vote this time.

[Red Velvet]

This is might be a dumb question given what MDB is like, but what policies/ideas is Tebet running on?

Centrism/Center-Right. It’s the same party as Michel Temer.

She’s very critical of Bolsonaro especially on the social issues, but not really much change economically, although one of Tebet proposals is to give R$ 5000 to everyone who concludes high school in order to stimulate more impoverished youth to finish it.

Even the centrists and right-wing parties need to  occasionally have policies with a social justice characteristic about it because they live in a place with enhanced inequality, so going full economic conservative like that crazy clown from NOVO who could only scream “State is Evil and Bad!” would make them extremely unpopular and unelectable because the only people who would vote for them would be some white people in the richest segment (which represents a low % of population) and businessman.

So when I say Tebet is an economic conservative I don’t mean in the radical US Republican sense. I mean it in the US democratic sense, throwing minimal crumbs once in a while but being enthusiastic about the neoliberal agenda and structure overall.

For comparison, Tebet is a candidate would fit right into the Democratic Party perfectly. Economic neoliberalism and a bunch of social issues conveniently appropriated for the sake of the election only. In the debate, she reinforced the Gender card as if she was always a big feminist supporting women or something. She voted for the impeachment of 1st female president. It’s typical liberal elitist empty feminism that manifests itself on “Women vote for Women” when she’s the one running but otherwise she never branded herself as a feminist or anything lol

[Red Velvet]

Where’s the Map of the IPEC poll per state?

Because you can add Roraima as an even Safer Bolsonaro state than Santa Catarina lmao

I remember Santa Catarina was being trashed for being Lula 25% and Bolsonaro 50%. Well, these are the results for Roraima, which regionally represents the opposite of Santa Catarina (South of the country), with Roraima being in the extreme North of the country instead, right in the border with Venezuela:

Bolsonaro 66%
Lula 16%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Simone Tebet 2%

[buritobr]

Where’s the Map of the IPEC poll per state?

Because you can add Roraima as an even Safer Bolsonaro state than Santa Catarina lmao

I remember Santa Catarina was being trashed for being Lula 25% and Bolsonaro 50%. Well, these are the results for Roraima, which regionally represents the opposite of Santa Catarina (South of the country), with Roraima being in the extreme North of the country instead, right in the border with Venezuela:

Bolsonaro 66%
Lula 16%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Simone Tebet 2%

Usually, Roraima is one of the most right-wing states in Brazil. Many of its inhabitants are farmers who dislike administrations which set large land areas for indigenous reservation. Besides, there is the issue of the venezuelan immigrants.

Today, Ipec published also the poll in Acre, the most pro Bolsonaro state in 2018. In Acre, his lead became smaller
Jair Bolsonaro 53%, Lula 30%, Ciro Gomes 8%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

XP/Ipespe poll 26 - 29 ago/2022

Lula (PT) 43% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) 35% (0)
Ciro (PDT) 9% (0)
Simone Tebet (MDB) 5% (+1)
Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil) 0% (wasn't in the latest poll)
Felipe D'Ávila (NOVO) 1% (0)
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) 0% (0)
José Maria Eymael (DC) 0% (0)
Sofia Manzano (PCB) 0% (0)
Roberto Jefferson (PTB) 0% (wasn't in the latest poll)
Pablo Marçal (PROS) 0% (wasn't in the latest poll)

Blank/null 4%
DK/DA 2%

Runoff

Lula 53% vs. Bolsonaro 38%
Lula 51% vs. Ciro 31%
Ciro 48% vs. Bolsonaro 42%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2022/08/BRASIL-Eleic%CC%A7o%CC%83es-Gerais-2022-BR-043472022.pdf

[buritobr]

Ipec polls states, August 31st 2022

São Paulo
Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro Gomes 9%
São Paulo metro area: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 25%, Ciro Gomes 10%
Countryside: Bolsonaro 37%, Lula 35%, Ciro Gomes 8%

Minas Gerais
Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 6%
Belo Horizonte metro area: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro Gomes 6%
Countryside: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 30%, Ciro Gomes 6%

Rio de Janeiro
Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 36%, Ciro Gomes 7%
Rio de Janeiro metro area: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 34%, Ciro Gomes 8%
Countryside: Bolsonaro 40%, Lula 37%, Ciro Gomes 4%

Pernambuco
Lula 60%, Bolsonaro 22%, Ciro Gomes 8%
Recife metro area: Lula 52%, Bolsonaro 27%, Ciro Gomes 8%
Countryside: Lula 66%, Bolsonaro 18%, Ciro Gomes 7%

Distrito Federal
Bolsonaro 38%, Lula 31%, Ciro Gomes 10%

Mato Grosso
Bolsonaro 49%, Lula 31%, Ciro Gomes 6%

Mato Grosso do Sul
Bolsonaro 39%, Lula 37%, Simone Tebet 8%, Ciro Gomes 4%

In the next hours, we will see the national Datafolha poll

[Red Velvet]

New DATAFOLHA poll shows that the Lula 1st round win has been canceled as he loses votes to Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet

1st round:
Lula 45% (-2)
Bolsonaro 32% (no change)
Ciro Gomes 9% (+2)
Simone Tebet 5% (+3)
Blank/Null/None 4%
Other Candidates combined 3%
Don’t Know 2%

Runoff:
Lula 53% (-1)
Bolsonaro 38% (+1)
Blank/Null/None 8%
Don’t Know 1%

Bolsonaro Government Evaluation
Good/Great 31% (+1)
Regular 27% (+1)
Bad/Awful 42% (-1)

[Red Velvet]

Here’s DATAFOLHA evolution since May 2022:

[buritobr]

I am lazy to write in English the results according to gender, age, region, scholarity, income, location, religion. You can see the results in this link https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2022/pesquisas-eleitorais/presidente/1-turno/
I think even non Portuguese speakers can understand due to similarity of words

[buritobr]

Datafolha Governor

São Paulo
Fernando Haddad 35%, Tarcísio 21%, Rodrigo Garcia 15%

Rio de Janeiro
Claudio Castro 31%, Marcelo Freixo 26%, Rodrigo Neves 7%

Minas Gerais
Zema 52%, Khalil 22%

The state polls were released before the national poll. When I saw the state polls, I became frightened, because the Bolsonaro's allies increased (Tarcísio, Castro, Zema). I though Bolsonaro could have gone up. But then, I saw the national poll, and it was good to see that he stoped at 32%. Maybe, the Bolsonaro's state candidates increased only because the Bolsonaro's voters found out these candidates. People start to care about the state elections later than the national election.

[Red Velvet]

Demographics in which the candidates do particularly better in comparison to their averages:

Ciro Gomes best segments:

- The Youngest (Ages 16 to 24) - 15%
- Highest Education (University diploma) - 13%
- The Richest (More than 10 MW) - 13%
- People with No Religion - 12%

Bolsonaro best segments:

- The Richest (More than 10 MW) - 48%
- Evangelicals - 48%
- Middle Class (Between 2-5 MW and 5-10 MW) - 40% each

Lula best segments:

- Northeast Region voters - 58%
- Lowest Education (Completed Middle School or less) - 56%
- The Poorest (2 MW or less) - 54%
- Catholics - 51%
- People with No Religion - 51%