French presidential election, 2022

[Logical]

Detailed support patterns for each candidate. Can someone explain Le Pen's strength in northern Gironde?
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/presidentielle-2022-decouvrez-la-physionomie-du-vote-par-commune-20220410

[Kamala's side hoe]

Not an especially close follower of French electoral politics, but I'm somewhat familiar with the ideological bent and voter base composition of the major parties. The electoral dynamics of my NationStates main are somewhat inspired by the evolution of France's party system. Here's some random takes:

How is Le Pen doing so well in Mayotte? Aren't most of the population black Muslims?

Old story of intense levels of illegal immigration from Comoros, which does put some genuine pressure on the local infrastructure, blamed on rising crime, and is a source of pretty major tension. This gets coupled with a sentiment of neglect from the mainland. For instance, the response so far has been basically to send in the riot police with no genuine attempt to relieve the pressure (ie invest in local resources or make it possible for the Comorian migrants to head to the mainland. There are deportations en masse, but the geographical nature of the whole thing makes it not a viable long term solution).

Sounds kind of like majority Asian + mixed-race Hawaii swinging R from 2016 to 2020 by more than any other US state. Except it isn't because of an immigration crisis.

The scores coming out of Ile-de-France are absolutely bonkers. Mélenchon is ahead in Seine-et-Marne, normally a very right-wing exurban hellscape that I expected to go easily for Le Pen, or at most for Macron if he won big. And remember Vélizy, Pécresse's old stronghold? Well, Mélenchon came in second there with 21% (Pécresse was at 11% lol). Absolutely wild stuff.

Isn't Melenchon's coalition just unexpectedly urban, not unexpectedly working-class? It seems like it's Macron (...or even Fillon) areas he's stealing from, not Le Pen ones.

Without getting into the argument about tactical votes and who stole whose vote - there is a funny consistency in that Mélenchon seems to have won about 70% of the left wing vote both in 2017 and this time. A similar 30% odd of the left electorate who are resistant to his... charms?

The difference is that the left wing vote is actually 5-6% bigger than it was five years ago - the latest projection has it essentially equal in size to Le Pen-Zemmour-NDA combined. Did anyone expect either of those things at any point over the last five years? Like, after all, after everything, we could be waking up to a France where more people vote for the left than for the far right. I'm sorry but that in itself seems like a miracle.

I mean, no matter what shït people will throw at each other, and who will point fingers at who. Remember that there is still a left wing electorate in France, and even despite the circumstances it has grown. At least there's grounds for optimism, and there hasn't been in a while.

Urban, non-Catholic + religious, non-Euro, 1st-2nd gen, COVID-19 era low income + high education under-40 solidarity for Mélenchon!

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.

-snip-

I hope to make similar graphs based on Ifop's numbers once they come out, as well as my usual maps at the constituency level.

Interesting that Macron simultaneously does best with the advanced degrees, retirees, and the most religious.  Not every day that you see that!

Reminiscent of trends towards Biden 2020 from HRC 2016/relative to Generic D, no?

Very american esque, educational polarization pattern.

While these are always dangerous comparisons, it seems like Macron succeeded in building the coalition Hillary Clinton (not Biden!) was expecting to win with.

Mélenchon's relatively strong performance is reminscent of US-PRES 2016.

[Cassius]

So the PCF finally avenges getting f’d over by Mitterrand.

[afleitch]

It looks like Mélenchon has built a coalition he'd rather not have and another candidate could have made the second round with. There's roots of a leftist revival, which long term is extremely promising.

[Vosem]

So, this is maybe a too-specific question, but what the hell happened in Paris's 1st arrondissement? The raw number of votes cast surged (from 9,026 in 2017 to 18,866 this time around), even as on paper turnout declined rather more than in most places, and the character of the constituency changed totally (in 2017 Macron outpaced Fillon 39-31, with Melenchon back at 13% and no one else in double-digits; this time it swung enormously left even by the standards of urban France, with Melenchon outpacing Macron 35-30. Also, LePen surged from 5% in 2017 to 14% this time around, making it her best arrondissement in Paris and by kind of a lot).

I don't think it's an error -- it's not that one candidate has an anomalously high number of votes, they all do -- but it seems like votes from somewhere else were probably added to it somehow?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I think JLM is a pretty vile human being even by the shockingly low standards of what's passed for the French left for much of the last century, but I have no sympathy for any Roussel supporters now finding themselves blamed for him missing the runoff. You inexplicably voted for a meme candidate, own it!

[Coldstream]

Given that the difference between Melenchon & Le Pen is greater than Roussel’s total, Melenchon’s ostracising the Communist Party seems increasingly moronic. I do not understand why people think Melenchon is a good campaigner, had be been a bit less sectarian and aggressive he’d have beaten Le Pen.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Most successful candidate per region

[Zinneke]

I think JLM is a pretty vile human being even by the shockingly low standards of what's passed for the French left for much of the last century, but I have no sympathy for any Roussel supporters now finding themselves blamed for him missing the runoff. You inexplicably voted for a meme candidate, own it!

They voted exactly how Mélenchon told them to : as if the first round of the election was a left wing primary. They should be proud and if Mélenchon had adopted Roussel's nuanced position on NATO for example, it begs a few questions over whether Roussel's electorate would have fallen behind him in rank.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Aren't most people who vite for PCF 90 plus diehards anyway?

[Blair]

Yeah it’s certainly frustrating about Melenchon but as others have said the fact that the numbers for the ‘alternative’ left were so low shows that many of those who didn’t vote for Melenchon very much did so for a reason.

Of course an alternative candidate of the left would have struggled because they would have had Melenchon eating into their vote!

Hopefully it helps to set minds ahead of 2027….

[Coldstream]

Yeah it’s certainly frustrating about Melenchon but as others have said the fact that the numbers for the ‘alternative’ left were so low shows that many of those who didn’t vote for Melenchon very much did so for a reason.

Of course an alternative candidate of the left would have struggled because they would have had Melenchon eating into their vote!

Hopefully it helps to set minds ahead of 2027….

The point about Melenchon is that even if he had made the second round he’d have lost, not because of his economic policies but because of how awful everything else about him is. Personally I think Le Pen would have beaten him, but that’s debatable.

However the spread shows that there is potential for a broad-left candidate to get through in 2027 without the baggage of Melenchon or the PS.

[Coldstream]

Another thing to note is that the top 4 candidates were all essentially personality based parties (3/4 were founded by their leaders) so the French party system seems to be more or less dead. The parties that had some kind of meaningful internal democracy to choose their candidates finished 5th, 6th & 10th.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hidalgo didn't even get 2% in the end? Genuine sad trombone noise.

I actually rated her and at one point thought she might do OK, but in the end her campaign made that of Liz "4.5%" Kendall (someone else who I still actually like personally, despite everything) appear the model of electoral and strategic genius.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Given that the difference between Melenchon & Le Pen is greater than Roussel’s total, Melenchon’s ostracising the Communist Party seems increasingly moronic. I do not understand why people think Melenchon is a good campaigner, had be been a bit less sectarian and aggressive he’d have beaten Le Pen.

Why did he push them away ?

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513426443283402754?t=mNklqfTHAAQOXPS3X...

https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513397665312256003?t=JqdlBbCBu4L4gtFdw...

Zemmour is a vile supporter of antisemitic ideas and these results are shameful, but many of these people escaped to Israel after several devastating attacks. It's an illustration of how the center and left need to find a way to address genuine concerns of the French Jewish community about the rise of antisemitic hate crimes, the most high profile of which had been by Muslim fundamentalists, without resorting to Islamophobic hatred like Macron and Pecresse often did.
That said, it's always been a conservative community:

https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513428563554410496?t=blWFxO8I49kspSEJ6...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is there anything about Le Penn or the FN that's explicitly anti-Paris ?, why were her results so poor in the city proper ?

[Zinneke]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

Is Zemmour, going to be reimbursed for his campaign?

[Zinneke]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

Is Zemmour, going to be reimbursed for his campaign?

Yes unfortunately. 5% gets you the 7 million euros.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

Is Zemmour, going to be reimbursed for his campaign?

Yes unfortunately. 5% gets you the 7 million euros.

Is it a flat payment or does it have to be a reimbursement of the expenses?

[Zinneke]

In case your hard on from last night's video of Zemmour supporters has worn off, here is a video of Pécresse calling on the whole country for donations because she is personally indebted in up to 5 million euros and did not get the expected 7 million. Her party, the party of old French money, didn't even back her financially.

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/valerie-pecresse-je-suis-endettee-personnellement-a-hauteur-de-5-millions-d-euros_VN-202204110240.html

Imagine spending 14 million to humiliate yourself publicly like this. Imagine putting 5 million of your own money into it. And then ask for donations. To run a campaign against the welfare state and putting 200,000 public servants on the bread line.

LMAO

Is Zemmour, going to be reimbursed for his campaign?

Yes unfortunately. 5% gets you the 7 million euros.

Is it a flat payment or does it have to be a reimbursement of the expenses?

the tldr is reimbursement of expenses but these are of course abused and there is now a system in place. If you can read french or google translate you can find info here :

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/presidentielle/resultats-presidentielle-on-vous-explique-les-regles-de-remboursement-des-frais-de-campagne-qui-inquietent-les-candidats-sous-la-barre-des-5_5075356.html

basically you don't just get the money to spend on cocaine and hookers, but Zemmour will likely pay his hooker gf a part of the campaign trail fund so its ambiguous and corrupt.

[Sir John Johns]

So, this is maybe a too-specific question, but what the hell happened in Paris's 1st arrondissement? The raw number of votes cast surged (from 9,026 in 2017 to 18,866 this time around), even as on paper turnout declined rather more than in most places, and the character of the constituency changed totally (in 2017 Macron outpaced Fillon 39-31, with Melenchon back at 13% and no one else in double-digits; this time it swung enormously left even by the standards of urban France, with Melenchon outpacing Macron 35-30. Also, LePen surged from 5% in 2017 to 14% this time around, making it her best arrondissement in Paris and by kind of a lot).

I don't think it's an error -- it's not that one candidate has an anomalously high number of votes, they all do -- but it seems like votes from somewhere else were probably added to it somehow?

The 1st arrondissement of Paris is where is located the seat of the ministry of justice and where is centralized part of the results coming from prison inmates all over France (the ones who haven't been deprived of their civic rights). Since 2019, jailed persons can vote in the prison itself instead of requiring a proxy vote form.

Strange patterns for this very bourgeois arrondissement was already noticed for the 2019 European elections when prison inmates constituted then roughly a third of registered voters in the 1st arrondissement: it was the RN’s best arrondissement (with 13.6% against 7.2% in the whole city) as well as LFI’s best arrondissement (with 9.6% above the popular XIX and XX arrondissements).

According to Le Parisien, results for inmates voters were then: RN 23.6%, LFI 19.7%, LREM 9.0% and EELV 8.9% while results for actual residents of the 1st arrondissement were LREM 40.6%, EELV 17.6, LR 10.2%, RN 7.3%, LFI 3.1% (note that the article isn’t giving the complete results for all lists).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yeah it’s certainly frustrating about Melenchon but as others have said the fact that the numbers for the ‘alternative’ left were so low shows that many of those who didn’t vote for Melenchon very much did so for a reason.

Of course an alternative candidate of the left would have struggled because they would have had Melenchon eating into their vote!

Hopefully it helps to set minds ahead of 2027….

The point about Melenchon is that even if he had made the second round he’d have lost, not because of his economic policies but because of how awful everything else about him is. Personally I think Le Pen would have beaten him, but that’s debatable.

However the spread shows that there is potential for a broad-left candidate to get through in 2027 without the baggage of Melenchon or the PS.

I don't support center left candidates, since center left doesn't support left candidates no matter what.

[Coldstream]

So, this is maybe a too-specific question, but what the hell happened in Paris's 1st arrondissement? The raw number of votes cast surged (from 9,026 in 2017 to 18,866 this time around), even as on paper turnout declined rather more than in most places, and the character of the constituency changed totally (in 2017 Macron outpaced Fillon 39-31, with Melenchon back at 13% and no one else in double-digits; this time it swung enormously left even by the standards of urban France, with Melenchon outpacing Macron 35-30. Also, LePen surged from 5% in 2017 to 14% this time around, making it her best arrondissement in Paris and by kind of a lot).

I don't think it's an error -- it's not that one candidate has an anomalously high number of votes, they all do -- but it seems like votes from somewhere else were probably added to it somehow?

The 1st arrondissement of Paris is where is located the seat of the ministry of justice and where is centralized part of the results coming from prison inmates all over France (the ones who haven't been deprived of their civic rights). Since 2019, jailed persons can vote in the prison itself instead of requiring a proxy vote form.

Strange patterns for this very bourgeois arrondissement was already noticed for the 2019 European elections when prison inmates constituted then roughly a third of registered voters in the 1st arrondissement: it was the RN’s best arrondissement (with 13.6% against 7.2% in the whole city) as well as LFI’s best arrondissement (with 9.6% above the popular XIX and XX arrondissements).

According to Le Parisien, results for inmates voters were then: RN 23.6%, LFI 19.7%, LREM 9.0% and EELV 8.9% while results for actual residents of the 1st arrondissement were LREM 40.6%, EELV 17.6, LR 10.2%, RN 7.3%, LFI 3.1% (note that the article isn’t giving the complete results for all lists).

There’s a certain irony to the fact criminals & police are most likely to vote for the far right.