Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

A thread for those thinking about going to Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/space_osint/status/1498793349033177091?s=20&t=VHMB2Q4ru4...

https://twitter.com/space_osint/status/1498793356620673026?s=20&t=VHMB2Q4ru4...

Personally, I don't have military training or experience. I've only ever fired paintball and airsoft guns (lol). But it would be nice to help some other way. Maybe driving trucks with supplies from Poland, driving passenger buses to help evacuate people, helping refugees in Poland or Romania, or something along those lines. Obviously there isn't such a pressing demand for that skillset compared to those with at least some military experience.

[Omega21]

Breaking: Kherson City Center under Russian Control (unconfirmed)

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498789545072078849

[GoTfan]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

And you’re a fool for falling for the Russian scare tactics that are literally being used to push this narrative. You seem to literally ignore all my points on Russia, and assume that this idea that a war between NATO and Russia would be devastating is something that only you know. Literally everyone in Russia in a position of power in the military is well aware of what would happen in such a conflict, and they themselves have no desire for it. As I clearly stated (which your feeble eyes seemed to have ignored) Russian leadership also dies in a nuclear war. Their children their city, they all evaporate as well.
Why do you think Putin was warning the West more than even justifying his own actions in his speech that preceded the invasion? Because he can’t nor would fight a war with the West at all, and therefore has to resort to scare tactics to keep us from engaging.

Here is what would happen if we actually sent troops to the Western cities of Ukraine, the world would panic, and the scare tactics that Russia has been so successfully using against us would flip. Putin himself would see that he underestimated the West’s resolve, and begin a negotiation process. And if he tried to push further, tried to touch our troops (who wouldn’t be attacking FYI, Russia would have to be the one to pull the trigger) his inner circle will turn completely.

And by the way, when you say we should do literally anything to prevent even a slightly increased risk of nuclear exchange, that includes permitting literal death camps. No Russia isn’t going to do that for a variety of reasons, but the point is that you and the doves here would absolutely allow such to happen even if the actual risk of nuclear exchange due to intervention is near minuscule. There is no hyperbole when you yourself say it.



 

I would advise you go and watch The Day After or Threads to see what is actually the most likely outcome of direct intervention.

I know you're eager to end human life but the rest of us are not.

[NOVA Green]

Breaking: Kherson City Center under Russian Control (unconfirmed)

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498789545072078849

if true.

Not completely unanticipated but....

[GeorgiaModerate]

Facebook has been essentially shut down, but in that case, I would not term that a hindrance to any society.

If anything, it's a net positive for that society.

[Omega21]

if true.

Not completely unanticipated but....

It seems it fell very quickly to a large-scale assault. Reports of Russians entering the city came just a few hours before this picture was taken.

The center now seems firmly in their hands, as we can see dozens of vehicles parked there fully undamaged.

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1498770671844872197

[David Hume]

The biggest problem with the Western doves is that they truly have no red line. To them, anything to prevent something that would slightly raise the risk of a nuclear exchange is something which ought to be strived for at any cost. I am firmly convinced Putin could start sending Ukrainians to literal death camps (this is not excessive hyperbole for several posters have said there is no red line) and would not be stopped from doing it out of Western fear.

There are obviously risks inherent with escalation, but a lot of people seem to have the immediate assumption that any direct involvement=apocalypse. As if those on the Russian side want to do Moscow turned into oblivion and their children dead. Yes we have real stakes in the game, but so do they. That’s why they will fold when pressure gets too high, and the only reason they are doing this now is because they truly want to test the boundaries. The problem is, the West doesn’t have boundaries. In our post-Cold War society, we became accustomed to the idea of no inherent risk of nuclear exchange at all, and now seem attached to that idea at a horrifying cost.

Make no mistake, a world in which Russia invaded Ukraine is not one which will ever resemble a world in which they didn’t, even if we sing the songs of appeasement out of fear.

You’re an insane warmonger, and nobody should take anything you say seriously. The amount of death and destruction a conventional war between NATO and Russia would cause would be catastrophic. And yes, anything that slightly increases the risk of nuclear hellfire raining from the sky, killing all advanced life on Earth, should be avoided at all costs. The West has done plenty to support Ukraine and will hopefully do more in the future, but war with Russia is untenable. And stop with the hyperbole, get a hobby or something.

If Nazi Germany and US or UK both have nuclear weapons in 1939, how would you respond to the German invasion of Poland?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Facebook has been essentially shut down, but in that case, I would not term that a hindrance to any society.

If anything, it's a net positive for that society.

I guess it's similar to Telegram.

Telegram has a controversial status in Germany due to the app allowing the use of channels and groups by right-wing extremists, with our new interior minister even threatening to shut it down here recently.

But it's also used as a platform by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for instance.

So, any communication channel in Russia that is not fully under the control of the government there is a net plus, even if it has a more controverisal status in Western countries.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/joannalamblooby/status/1498799550810628099?s=21

Not 100% confirmed but very interesting.

[Person Man]

if true.

Not completely unanticipated but....

It seems it fell very quickly to a large-scale assault. Reports of Russians entering the city came just a few hours before this picture was taken.

The center now seems firmly in their hands, as we can see dozens of vehicles parked there fully undamaged.

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1498770671844872197

What are the chances that the army can continue underground in that area?

[TheReckoning]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

No, actually.

Not everyone has the same values as you, Dule.

[Storr]

Big if true, literally:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498799589100605444?s=20&t=xbcdMU...

[NOVA Green]

Anybody who thinks war is good for business really needs their head examined.

War does not provide food or clean drinking water.

War does not make clothing.

War does not build shelter.

War does not reduce disease and illness.

War produces only the opposite effect in terms of destroying these human basic essential needs, as well as inhibiting the development of broader post-material needs which is what makes us human above all else.

Another example of how the Russian Invasion of Ukraine will impact humans throughout the planet, access to fertilizer supplies (I imagine the poorest countries in the world will be hit the hardest despite this article's focus on the "Global Core" vs the "Global Peripheral" nations:

(Wall Street Journal excerpt--- link below)

"Russian Invasion Threatens Disarray for Farmers' Fertilizer Supplies

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to a prolonged global supply crunch in agricultural fertilizers, industry officials said, prolonging the current shortage and exacerbating already high prices for farmers.

Ken Seitz, interim chief executive of fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd., said Tuesday that the invasion is disrupting the global supply of potash and nitrogen crop nutrients. The situation also leaves uncertainty about Russia’s ability to export, Mr. Seitz said.

Russia and Belarus are the second- and third-largest potash producing countries in the world. Russia was the top exporter of nitrogen in 2019, constituting 17% of global market share, and was the third-largest phosphate exporter, said Kenneth Zuckerberg, a senior economist at agricultural lender CoBank.

“Should U.S. cooperatives and ag retailers start increasing purchases now ahead of spring planting season on fear, fertilizer prices may continue to break higher into new record territory,” Mr. Zuckerberg said. The invasion's pressure on natural-gas supplies and prices will push production costs of fertilizer even higher, he added.

Canada-based Nutrien said last month that it expects to sell 13.7 million to 14.3 million metric tons of potash this year, up from 13.6 million a year ago. The company could produce more if the global supply problems persist, Mr. Seitz said. However, Mr. Seitz said he’s concerned that if Belarusian and Russian suppliers return to the market, his company would be left holding excess fertilizer that the company can’t sell.

...."


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-01/card/russian-invasion-threatens-disarray-for-farmers-fertilizer-supplies-TLdX3YKW32ZoFGYYoais

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

No, actually.

Not everyone has the same values as you, Dule.

Exactly, which is why I don't have the right to impose my values on them. Hence why authoritarianism is inherently wrong.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/joannalamblooby/status/1498799550810628099?s=21

Not 100% confirmed but very interesting.

What would the implications of this be? I'd speculate myself but this is kind of a weird thing to have happened.

[NOVA Green]

Big if true, literally:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498799589100605444?s=20&t=xbcdMU...

Wasn't that a region where we have previously seen some successful Ukrainian attacks using Turkish supplied Anti-Tank drones?

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/joannalamblooby/status/1498799550810628099?s=21

Not 100% confirmed but very interesting.

What would the implications of this be? I'd speculate myself but this is kind of a weird thing to have happened.

If elements of the motherf***ing FSB (the tweet threads have more details) are secretly against Putin and his war, there may be hope for a regime change.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Time for your meds Mr Green. You can post in the Ukraine thread again in the morning.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Time for your meds Mr Green. You can post in the Ukraine thread again in the morning.

NOVA, despite his odd posting style, has been posting some of the most helpful and substantive information in this thread. Lay off.

[Omega21]

What are the chances that the army can continue underground in that area?

I doubt they can continue highly organized, larger-scale operations.

However, what they can do is hide along the roads & highways and disable soft targets.

Supply trucks are not armored nor tracked vehicles, so very easy to immobilize and just go back into the shadows.


On another note, US & EU officials seem to be claiming RU casualties are actually around 2,000.

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498797330593722379

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Copy+pasting the messages of a 20 year old from Russia whom i am in a SocDem Discord with (unrelated to Atlas):

I feel like sh**t, our family is packing bags and leaving, we might not come back. Rumors are going around about ban on travel for 18-55 men, so everyone is packing and leaving. god im so f-ing scared

He is flying to Istanbul and then going to try to reach relatives in France. I'm sure the projected economic recession (depression?) plays a big role in this but if many young Russian men and possibly also their families try to avoid a draft by fleeing, then we could see a RUSSIAN refugee crisis as well.

[Omega21]

Copy+pasting the messages of a 20 year old from Russia whom i am in a SocDem Discord with (unrelated to Atlas):

I feel like sh**t, our family is packing bags and leaving, we might not come back. Rumors are going around about ban on travel for 18-55 men, so everyone is packing and leaving. god im so ing scared

He is flying to Istanbul and then going to try to reach relatives in France. I'm sure the projected economic recession (depression?) plays a big role in this but if many young Russian men and possibly also their families try to avoid a draft by fleeing, then we could see a RUSSIAN refugee crisis as well.

What makes you think the EU will accept Russian civilians?

Honestly, I'm expecting a wave of unjustified Russophobia, certainly not an open-door policy.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Copy+pasting the messages of a 20 year old from Russia whom i am in a SocDem Discord with (unrelated to Atlas):

I feel like sh**t, our family is packing bags and leaving, we might not come back. Rumors are going around about ban on travel for 18-55 men, so everyone is packing and leaving. god im so ing scared

He is flying to Istanbul and then going to try to reach relatives in France. I'm sure the projected economic recession (depression?) plays a big role in this but if many young Russian men and possibly also their families try to avoid a draft by fleeing, then we could see a RUSSIAN refugee crisis as well.

What makes you think the EU will accept Russian civilians?

Honestly, I'm expecting a wave of unjustified Russophobia, certainly not an open-door policy.

Never said i thought that. You can still have a refugee crisis even with the door slammed shut. Europe stopped caring about refugees in 2018, doesn't mean there isn't a crisis still ongoing

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Putin decides to blow Ukrainian cities to bits from missiles, because his troops have no stomach for carrying out his mad designs, killing tens of thousands of civilians, that is a red line. At that point it is no fly zone time. If Putin can kill from the air in that way, then it is time to close such air from being an arterial for the commission of such unspeakable acts.

And in tandem, I would hope and trust that considerable thought  is being given to the state of Putin's health.

Easy to say from a back bencher I understand. Biden is earning his pay these days. This is where the rubber meets the road. The rest relatively speaking is noise. I hope and trust this is the focus of his SOTU.

The issue is you cannot enforce that no-fly zone without starting WWIII.

[TheReckoning]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

No, actually.

Not everyone has the same values as you, Dule.

Exactly, which is why I don't have the right to impose my values on them. Hence why authoritarianism is inherently wrong.

Except some think imposing values on others isn’t inherently wrong. Which is a valid position to take.