Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[PSOL]

This is more boring than April.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, still sceptical that much will come of it.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1459568000382742540?s=20

[BigSerg]

This is a very "mysterious" accident
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1459618076727644166?s=20

[Woody]

Why would they invade when winter is around the corner?

[CumbrianLefty]

That is indeed a reason for scepticism!

[BigSerg]

When asked if the risk of a Russian military aggression was higher than during the past years, she said: “Information of our [military intelligence services] coincides with the information of partner countries about the high probability of destabilisation of the situation in Ukraine this winter.”

Maliar added that allies’ conclusions were “based not only on information about the number of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border”, suggesting Washington had additional intelligence about Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s intentions.

https://www.ft.com/content/d4eada1f-2849-4d3a-9c40-be797addd8cb

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1459958532359524352?s=20

[BigSerg]

Some 3D chess here, but if I'm Poland I make a formal request from the EU for a small military deployment in light of actions on our border from Belarus:

Macron wants an EU-wide strengthening of European defense post-Australians killing the submarine defense contract and AUKUS completely reformatting the Indo-Pacific/U.S. defense relationships. The Eastern Europeans don't buy that the EU are serious on defense. This would serve as a put up or shut up question to Western and Central Europe. If a real deployment is accepted and western/central states' troops are deployed, this shows the Russians the Europeans are serious about standing up for their eastern members which is a positive for all of them. If they punt or offer only something token that does nothing, the Poles and other vulnerable Eastern European states will know the EU is nothing geopolitically and to only focus on their NATO (read: American) relationship.

To do what exactly? You want French military to fight illegal immigrants?

Broader security while getting continental buy-in.

Moreover, Poland gov doesn't want to look weak begging for help.

It's not weakness inasmuch of they're there for security if Russia's about to launch a broader conflict on Ukrainian soil.

Poland doesn't have any problem with "security".

Poland-Belarus standoff has nothing to do with Russia's possible (extremely unlikely, but let's pretend it is possible) attack on Ukraine. I don't know, why the thread includes both.


People here seem to think, that there is a military conflict between Poland and Belarus. There isn't. Belarus basically does the job as coyotes on Mexican border. Does US use tear gas against illegals? Well, Poland does (see the video) and therefore doesn't want to have there anyone, nor journalists, human aid workers or French army.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1459966780022087683?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1459960640831959045?s=20

[dead0man]

Why would they invade when winter is around the corner?

solid point, war in winter is hard (even in 2021), but it's also not a good time for our soft brothers in Europe to be forced to give up their cheap Russian gas.  Perhaps Putin thinks that Dieter and Juliette would rather another of slice of Ukraine go to Russia than be chilly for a month.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putin's got the Nord Stream 2 from pro-Russia Joe Biden. I doubt, Putin would risk it now.

[BigSerg]

Why would they invade when winter is around the corner?

solid point, war in winter is hard (even in 2021), but it's also not a good time for our soft brothers in Europe to be forced to give up their cheap Russian gas.  Perhaps Putin thinks that Dieter and Juliette would rather another of slice of Ukraine go to Russia than be chilly for a month.

It is better for them to attack now because of the spring/fall mud (Rasputitsa)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why would they invade when winter is around the corner?

solid point, war in winter is hard (even in 2021), but it's also not a good time for our soft brothers in Europe to be forced to give up their cheap Russian gas.  Perhaps Putin thinks that Dieter and Juliette would rather another of slice of Ukraine go to Russia than be chilly for a month.

Most of "cheap Russian gas" goes through Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine would stop it, if they are attacked. In fact, one of the Ukraine's argument against NS2 is... that it allows Russia to attack Ukraine, while keeping sending gas to EU 

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1459970762664722432?s=20

[BigSerg]

Uff, if this is true it is a very bad sign...
https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status/1459983695444647941?s=20

[BigSerg]

“They are deeply, deeply, deeply concerned about what's happening,” Ivo Daalder, who served as the U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration, said of the Biden administration officials who briefed him on the Russian buildup of forces on Ukraine’s border. "Hints I'm getting from friends in the administration is that what we should really be doing is sharing battlefield intel, providing surveillance and reconnaissance, flying drones over [the Russian buildup] to really figure out what's going on."

Daalder said that, unlike a Russian troop buildup in the same region last spring, administration officials told him the current concentration of forces, as well as their night-time maneuvers and Moscow’s claims of Ukrainian provocations, closely resemble Russia’s military moves prior to its 2014 invasion and annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.

“There is a real worry that something really bad is afoot,” Daalder, now president of the Chicago Council  on Global Affairs, told me.

https://www.spytalk.co/p/biden-may-up-ukraine-intelligence?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Kanishka183/status/1460047565664129027?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Lukashenko: "I’ll Cut Off Europe’s Natural Gas Supply. Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians, and other headless people think before speaking"

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-dictator-ups-ante-poland-130505193.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Russia (Gazprom) owns the pipeline.

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/1459576833209470981

"Of course, in theory, Lukashenko as president of a transit country could order our (gas) supplies to be cut to Europe. But this would mean a breach of our gas transit contract and I hope this will not happen," Putin added.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

BBC:

https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1459303875010338819

[BigSerg]

Big
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1460250088647897088?t=333cS2ugur2uvrlMjbs3j...

[BigSerg]

Gg
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1460251367193255938?t=2cenNYMo73S4KM9dY-Tysg&...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1460253609166315523?t=xhYrn4vhm0ZvvH8WRk6sG...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1460253358862880776?t=niv86Cz7vTI3jnT7Cr5we...

[BigSerg]

"Sleepy Joe, don't  f***k with us in Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1460281422896369671?t=tOGUqHSVJZCFUwGW9vfC...