Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1458597652040400901?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1458584003414401027?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1458609384355991560

The Conservatives of the World, UNITE!

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1458747444766851072?t=W_wKb9rlobU7zz1QMN9uv...

[StateBoiler]

Some 3D chess here, but if I'm Poland I make a formal request from the EU for a small military deployment in light of actions on our border from Belarus:

Macron wants an EU-wide strengthening of European defense post-Australians killing the submarine defense contract and AUKUS completely reformatting the Indo-Pacific/U.S. defense relationships. The Eastern Europeans don't buy that the EU are serious on defense. This would serve as a put up or shut up question to Western and Central Europe. If a real deployment is accepted and western/central states' troops are deployed, this shows the Russians the Europeans are serious about standing up for their eastern members which is a positive for all of them. If they punt or offer only something token that does nothing, the Poles and other vulnerable Eastern European states will know the EU is nothing geopolitically and to only focus on their NATO (read: American) relationship.

[BigSerg]

Lukashenko: "I’ll Cut Off Europe’s Natural Gas Supply. Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians, and other headless people think before speaking"

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-dictator-ups-ante-poland-130505193.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

[BigSerg]

This is nothing like April
https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1458848895891615748?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1458851722709942277?s=20

[BigSerg]

"As we have agreed, from Moscow to Gomel along the southern border of Belarus, then along the western border to Postavy in the Vitebsk Region and flying back to Moscow from Postavy through Orsha. This ring around the Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine must be monitored by Russian and Belarusian servicemen," Lukashenko said at a government meeting.

"We have agreed with Russia on that. There is no time for jokes. The situation is very serious there. The most serious thing is that they have departed from the accords. We do not know what they want," Lukashenko said."

https://tass.com/world/1360171

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Lukashenko: "I’ll Cut Off Europe’s Natural Gas Supply. Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians, and other headless people think before speaking"

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-dictator-ups-ante-poland-130505193.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Russia (Gazprom) owns the pipeline.

This is nothing like April
https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1458848895891615748?s=20

Putin is gonna annex [parts of] Ukraine, while Joe is sleeping busy with inflation/supplies 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Some 3D chess here, but if I'm Poland I make a formal request from the EU for a small military deployment in light of actions on our border from Belarus:

Macron wants an EU-wide strengthening of European defense post-Australians killing the submarine defense contract and AUKUS completely reformatting the Indo-Pacific/U.S. defense relationships. The Eastern Europeans don't buy that the EU are serious on defense. This would serve as a put up or shut up question to Western and Central Europe. If a real deployment is accepted and western/central states' troops are deployed, this shows the Russians the Europeans are serious about standing up for their eastern members which is a positive for all of them. If they punt or offer only something token that does nothing, the Poles and other vulnerable Eastern European states will know the EU is nothing geopolitically and to only focus on their NATO (read: American) relationship.

To do what exactly? You want French military to fight illegal immigrants?

Moreover, Poland gov doesn't want to look weak begging for help.

Moreover, Poland doesn't even allow journalist (and hum. aid worker) to come to the border (state of emergency). All the info we get comes from The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus/Poland. Why? I guess, because of that:


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/world/middleeast/migrants-belarus-border-abuse.html
Iraqi migrants say they face beatings on both sides of the Belarusian border.

SULAIMANIYA, Iraq — Before the Belarus police pushed Hajar, 37, across the border into Lithuania this week, they punched him in the head, he said. But that was just the start of his ordeal.

On the Lithuanian side, the police called for a group of commandos who he said took him and his friends away and started hitting them with sticks and plastic cables and shocking them with stun guns. In a video call from Minsk, he pulled up his shirt to show deep bruises on his side and back.

“They said ‘You don’t have the right to come here to our country,’” he said, speaking in Kurdish through an interpreter. “They said ‘You make our country dirty.’”

It happened in Lithuania, but it, perhaps, even worse in Poland. I guess, it's another reason, they don't want French military observing it.

[StateBoiler]

Some 3D chess here, but if I'm Poland I make a formal request from the EU for a small military deployment in light of actions on our border from Belarus:

Macron wants an EU-wide strengthening of European defense post-Australians killing the submarine defense contract and AUKUS completely reformatting the Indo-Pacific/U.S. defense relationships. The Eastern Europeans don't buy that the EU are serious on defense. This would serve as a put up or shut up question to Western and Central Europe. If a real deployment is accepted and western/central states' troops are deployed, this shows the Russians the Europeans are serious about standing up for their eastern members which is a positive for all of them. If they punt or offer only something token that does nothing, the Poles and other vulnerable Eastern European states will know the EU is nothing geopolitically and to only focus on their NATO (read: American) relationship.

To do what exactly? You want French military to fight illegal immigrants?

Broader security while getting continental buy-in.

Moreover, Poland gov doesn't want to look weak begging for help.[/quote]

It's not weakness inasmuch of they're there for security if Russia's about to launch a broader conflict on Ukrainian soil.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1458884440718028805?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1458890897098264582?s=20

[Mr. Illini]

Ukraine is one thing, but pretty bold of Belarus (really Russia by proxy, let's be honest) to mess with Poland, a NATO and EU member.

Hope Blinken and Biden stand firmly here in support of our democratic allies and against Russian imperialism.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1458996238083186691?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Some 3D chess here, but if I'm Poland I make a formal request from the EU for a small military deployment in light of actions on our border from Belarus:

Macron wants an EU-wide strengthening of European defense post-Australians killing the submarine defense contract and AUKUS completely reformatting the Indo-Pacific/U.S. defense relationships. The Eastern Europeans don't buy that the EU are serious on defense. This would serve as a put up or shut up question to Western and Central Europe. If a real deployment is accepted and western/central states' troops are deployed, this shows the Russians the Europeans are serious about standing up for their eastern members which is a positive for all of them. If they punt or offer only something token that does nothing, the Poles and other vulnerable Eastern European states will know the EU is nothing geopolitically and to only focus on their NATO (read: American) relationship.

To do what exactly? You want French military to fight illegal immigrants?

Broader security while getting continental buy-in.

Moreover, Poland gov doesn't want to look weak begging for help.

It's not weakness inasmuch of they're there for security if Russia's about to launch a broader conflict on Ukrainian soil.

Poland doesn't have any problem with "security".

Poland-Belarus standoff has nothing to do with Russia's possible (extremely unlikely, but let's pretend it is possible) attack on Ukraine. I don't know, why the thread includes both.


People here seem to think, that there is a military conflict between Poland and Belarus. There isn't. Belarus basically does the job as coyotes on Mexican border. Does US use tear gas against illegals? Well, Poland does (see the video) and therefore doesn't want to have there anyone, nor journalists, human aid workers or French army.

[urutzizu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SHGM/status/1459079392689373205

The Turkish aviation authority has announced a ban on Syrians, Iraqis and Yemenis from travelling to Belarus. Already Iraq banned flights (besides repatriation) and this week closed the Belarusian consulate in Erbil and other Belarusian offices in Baghdad to stop them from Issuing Visas. Lebanon, Jordan und Tajikistan have also stopped flights to Belarus.

Not just Border sealed but also the main future migrant flows into Belarus cut off. And shows that if the EU and it's MS are united, we can actually apply real pressure. Problem countries is Syria and Iran, where applying pressure doesn't work if the relationship is non-existent/ed and no economic leverage is there thanks to US stupidity with nuclear deal.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not just Border sealed but also the main future migrant flows into Belarus cut off. And shows that if the EU and it's MS are united, we can actually apply real pressure. Problem countries is Syria and Iran, where applying pressure doesn't work if the relationship is non-existent/ed and no economic leverage is there thanks to US stupidity with nuclear deal.

Yes, another Trump "triumph".

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1459110134987243520?s=19

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1459125052180418562?t=6Z6Ros-FZQvqeEnOn...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1459192452691156993?t=JTrXjE5g6kbQhPPtExXUD...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Convertbond/status/1459215561204940805?s=20

[BigSerg]

“This is very different than what we saw in April,” Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), a member of the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, said Thursday. What we’re seeing now “certainly leads to the conclusion that Russia has different intentions this time.”

In particular, new deployments to Crimea and the arrival of the First Tank Army to Voronezh closer to the Ukraine border have drawn attention. One senior U.S. national security official even suggested Russian leader Vladimir Putin may also be trying to establish some military capabilities along his western borders in case he sees a need to intervene in Belarus

A senior Biden administration official said the United States is consulting allies about the situation, and Vice President Kamala Harris discussed it “extensively” with French President Emmanuel Macron. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, too, is in touch with European allies about the matter, the official said.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/12/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-521139

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1459384036774846464?s=20