The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Penelope]

2012 Prediction based upon JBrase's map:

Core Obama States: 10% Margin of Victory
Safe Obama States: 5% Margin of Victory
Leaning Obama States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Leaning Republican States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Safe Republican States: 5% Margin of Victory
Core Republican States: 10% Margin of Victory

It should be noted that this assumes that a moderate republican will get nominated, like Romney or Karger.

Obama: 322
Republican: 216

So if things stay similar to the current situation, I'd say we're looking at 1996.

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.

[Penelope]

We appear to be going in circles with the approval ratings by state - considering:

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^ PB's results exactly one month ago.

[Penelope]

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

[Penelope]

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

+3 disapproval since the last poll is rather odd considering President Obama has done literally nothing self destructive in the last few days - unless this is related to Hurricane Earl or that new oil rig explosion, then I could see it.

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Windows calculator begs to differ.

[Penelope]

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

No it isn't, but of course Democratics think anything that shows them in trouble is odd, because they are to stupid to know that the avg america don't like what the Democrats and Obama are doing.

+3 disapproval since the last poll is rather odd considering President Obama has done literally nothing self destructive in the last few days - unless this is related to Hurricane Earl or that new oil rig explosion, then I could see it.

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Windows calculator begs to differ.

No all it means it a really good Obama sample is moving out of the poll window dates.

We can argue Good Obama and Bad Obama samples all day.

Pb's results are to be expected. I was rather surprised that Idaho hadn't gone brown yet. I'm guessing Oklahoma is up next.

[Penelope]

......

Same meaning, but it even looks better (esthetically, if not politically).

Ah yes! Much better. Although I think your electoral predictions are a bit basic..

[Penelope]

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

I don't think so,  Phrasing perhaps.  Obama's disapproval numbers have been higher, 56%-58%.  55% is not bad for him.

Yes, but wasn't he's approval like 52 just in the last poll? I'm just saying I don't know what could've caused such a spike..


Anyways, I'm going to start making daily/weekly 2012 Predictions.

Core Obama States: 10% Margin of Victory
Safe Obama States: 5% Margin of Victory
Leaning Obama States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Toss Up/To Close to Call
Leaning Republican States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Safe Republican States: 5% Margin of Victory
Core Republican States: 10% Margin of Victory


It should be noted that this assumes that a moderate republican will get nominated.

RESULT IF HELD ON SEPTEMBER 3RD, 2010:

Obama/Biden: 325
Republican: 213

It's important to remember that the results of the 2012 election will rely on not only Obama's Approval ratings, but also the performance of the Republican Congress through 2011-2012, and the nominated candidate.

[Penelope]

It's important to remember that the results of the 2012 election will rely on not only Obama's Approval ratings, but also the performance of the Republican Congress through 2011-2012, and the nominated candidate.

It's a tad bit premature to be calling the Congress of 2011-2012 "Republican".

Not really, it's becoming increasingly obvious. Perhaps I should've phrased it better though - the Republican House. The Senate will be a different story, but it could just as easy to call it Republican.

Great, another hack making maps.

OK, if your definition of hack is not showing a republican landslide in 2012, then by all means, I am a hack. I'm sorry, but I'm going by polls here, not some arbitrary libertarian dream that Obama is Black Carter.

[Penelope]

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.

[Penelope]

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.

I doubt. people don"t trust Obama anymore. It's the second time that Obama is strongly down after a speech.

It's the poor economic numbers that have come out that are hurting him, his speech isn't going to help him out so much. I can see his numbers start to rebound once he does his tour and announces this new "recovery package".

What makes you so sure that after his last "recovery package", voters are going to give him the benefit of the doubt?  I for one think that anything he says now is purely political in nature and will almost certainly not be directed at the midterms rather than actually creating a recovery.

People aren't just going to arbitrarily hate Obama because he announces a recovery package. The GOP will, but normal voters are going to welcome it. People are pissed at him because he has been focusing on Health Care and the war and not paying much attention to the economy. His numbers were through the roof when the stimulus packages were signed. 

[Penelope]

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.

I doubt. people don"t trust Obama anymore. It's the second time that Obama is strongly down after a speech.

It's the poor economic numbers that have come out that are hurting him, his speech isn't going to help him out so much. I can see his numbers start to rebound once he does his tour and announces this new "recovery package".

What makes you so sure that after his last "recovery package", voters are going to give him the benefit of the doubt?  I for one think that anything he says now is purely political in nature and will almost certainly not be directed at the midterms rather than actually creating a recovery.

People aren't just going to arbitrarily hate Obama because he announces a recovery package. The GOP will, but normal voters are going to welcome it. People are pissed at him because he has been focusing on Health Care and the war and not paying much attention to the economy. His numbers were through the roof when the stimulus packages were signed. 

What the "normal voters" want is not another failed stimulus package that will coast us billions of dollars that we don't have to spend. What they want is for Obama to keep the Bush tax cuts for the time being and for the Government to stop spending money we don't have.

 "WERE RUNNING OUT OF MONEY! QUICK, LOWER TAXES!!!"


Can you offer some polling as to deduce what the "normal/independent voters" want? As MK ULTRA said, it's what you want, not what independent voters want.

Except GOP approval to drop drastically once he starts his tour, and Indy and Dem votes to increase slightly.

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, u.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 47%, +2.

This marks Obama's highest Strongly Disapprove number.  It is possibly just an overly anti-Obama sample moving through the numbers.

One thing to watch for is if his Strongly Disapprove numbers are higher than his overall Approve numbers.

Now I don't mean to rain on the Conservative Parade, but this is clearly a bad Obama sample...

[Penelope]

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.

Oh! Great news! Lets spend some more.

Independant voters are not conservatives, as much as you want that to be true. They aren't going to care how the economy is fixed, just that Obama is focusing on it again. His numbers have been bad because he was focusing on health care for a year, rather than setting up new jobs and trying to fix the economy.

[Penelope]

PS: Scifiguy, Kentucky as a tossup?

It would likely go GOP, it would be close though.

[Penelope]

Shouldn't North Carolina be Leaning GOP?

[Penelope]

You should colour DE white, it´s a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.

[Penelope]

You should colour DE white, it´s a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.

Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

Ohhhh.... I thought he was talking about Pbrower's 2012 prediction.

[Penelope]

You should colour DE white, it´s a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.

Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

Ohhhh.... I thought he was talking about Pbrower's 2012 prediction.

lol, just ignore Pbrower's prediction map. Its just his wet dreams for Obama's re-election, he has it as currently favoring an Obama win in Alaska lol...

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

[Penelope]

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.

Exactly. Obama could continue to fail as a President and he can still win re-election. The approval ratings effect the result somewhat, but the result is primarily decided by the campaign and debates. And Obama is, to be honest, the most charismatic President since Reagan. You cannot tell me with a straight face that Newt Gingrich will break 200 EV's in 2012 if he is the nominee.

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

Except that can't translate into an election - Obama won't be winning New Mexico while losing Minnesota and Washington, for example.

There's no rule that says that can't happen.

Actually there is. It's the fact that Washington and Minnesota are exceptionally liberal states and the GOP is exceptionally conservative.

[Penelope]

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.

1) This is almost irrelevent by this point. The GOP's best hope is Mitch Daniels, but I still haven't seen any speeches by him, and I doubt he will even run.
2) This, this here is the killer. If Employment numbers are trending into double digits then it's going to get a bit contested.
3) He can still blame the war on Bush, as easy as that would be, but it would still work relatively well.

 Indiana will be in play, unless Daniels gets the nod. And I hardly expect a 1984, perhaps at the most a re-play of 1964 if someone exceptionally insane gets the nod. I think it'll go GOP unless we get Newt/Barbour/Palin as nominee. If N/B/P is the nominee, then you are looking at this:

N/B/P v. Obama

[Penelope]

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Iraq he can blame entirely on Bush but Iraq is winding down anyways so won't matter as much, but pinning any downturns in Afghanistan on Bush will comeback to haunt him and give the GOP the ammo of saying "See, he blames everything on Bush!" wether or not they are justified in doing so, the Democrats have had control of congress for about 4 years the last 2 years of which they had huge majorities not seen for a long time, and the white house for approaching 2 years. It will be harder and harder to continue passing the blame on to the predecessor. It may have worked in 2008, but by 2012 I suspect voters will see the Dem's blaming Bush as a turn off.

The problem is that voters will still hate Bush in 2012, and Obama's approval will be divided, but will not in any way will the average voter see Obama as a failure. Right now there is not a single believable poll that shows the GOP more 'popular' than the Democrats. They are trending higher, but right now people just hate the Democrats - and are voting GOP because they have no choice.

And Kentucky/TN can go Dem, I believe, they are more likely to go Dem than the Deep South.

[Penelope]

I may attempt to purchase an apartment in Canada if things keep going this way.

Still, it's important to remember that the only President to win election and then lose his election to the same opposition party was Jimmy Carter. So if GOPer's want to take back the White House in 2012, Obama will have to be as big of a failure as Carter, and they'll also have to find another Reagan.

[Penelope]

I may attempt to purchase an apartment in Canada if things keep going this way.

So if GOPer's want to take back the White House in 2012, Obama will have to be as big of a failure as Carter, and they'll also have to find another Reagan.

Obama will be.

And the GOP has Mitt Romney.

Nuff said.

This site gets more hilarious every post.

[Penelope]

Looks like Obama's poll numbers are going up a bit. See: West Virginia, Texas.