The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, -1.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

Though well of the high, Obama's Strongly Disapprove number has jumped 6 points in just over a week.

Polarization, most likely.

[Penelope]

How about we wait a few days before jumping to conclusions?

Agreed. In Gallup, it's about a four point drop. Not that much, and it could be anything. Seeing how no large event has occured in the US in the past 5 days, I doubt the President's numbers are on a downward trajectory.

People know about Egypt, but that is not enough to change their opinions on the President entirely. Most likely, a few more people who are concerned about the situation in Egypt, who generally support the President, are uneasy and replied "Not Sure". 

[Penelope]

JJ that numbers don't make sense.

Gallup is also down to 46-46 today.

Don't know what caused the fall, maybe Egypt or something else ?

Or the related subject of gas prices?

On Rasmussen, it could be be a blip, but the strongly disapprove numbers have been rising.

Rasmussen, at 53% Dissaproval, is likely a blip, and seems to be polling 2-3% lower for the President than other pollsters.

Really, since the majority of Americans probably don't even know or care about the Egyptian Crisis, I highly doubt his approval is taking a major dip because of it. Moreso, as I said earlier, it's likely because of a few of his supporters getting uneasy about the crisis and answering "Not Sure", which would explain Gallup's 46-46 today.

[Penelope]

I honestly can't think of anything in particular about Obama's handling of the Egypt situation that would cause a drop in approval, one reason why I'm sceptical of these signifying something other than a blip.

It might a temporary boost fading.  He didn't really do anything significant that would have raised his numbers in the first place (despite giving a mediocre SOTU speech), so it be that he just got a moderate, temporary bump in approval after the New Year elections and it's sliding back into more "normal" territory for him.

But i agree with you that we need to wait before this can be called official movement.

Guys, his approval range is going to change a bit soon. It's got to go up or down at some point.

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

That strongly disapprove number is staying up.  It is too early to tell about strongly approved.

If this isn't a blip, it is interesting.  The number of people that basically hate Obama is growing, while the number that love him is dwindling.  That is not polarization.  

To be fair, it is Rasmussen. PPP and Gallup are arguably the only polls I think we should really be trusting at this point.

Gallup solely because it has more information and statistics to back everything up.  It's currently at 46-46 even, which to me makes a little more sense.

[Penelope]

I'd say the blip is leveling out. Remember, in Gallup, his approval fell 4% in about 2 days.

[Penelope]

Gallup is 49-43 today.

[Penelope]

I'll go with 53-44.

[Penelope]

Not really sure why you guys are expecting so much movement either way...

Well, I don't think it'll be much of a movement, IIRC Obama's approval would only have to go up 4 points in the next 2 weeks. Besides, his approval isn't going to stay where it has been in 2010, people are going to begin making up their minds on his Presidency soon.

[Penelope]

It's just Rasmussen. Gallup's Dissaproval actually went down one point today. My trust in Rasmussen continues to deteriorate.

[Penelope]

We're reading too much into them, most likely.

[Penelope]

Gallup National Approval

Approve - 47%, +2

Dissaprove - 44%, -2

Other/Not Sure - 9%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I'm beginning to wonder if Rasmussen just lumps all the "Not Sure" answers in with the Dissaproval percentage.

[Penelope]

Allright, any faith I once held in Rasmussen's polling is pretty much completely gone. Even a Fox News poll is showing more favorable numbers for the President.

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%,  -1.

Definite erosion in Rasmussen's numbers.

Fixed.

There is a -3 swing in Gallup but it definitely has not been as continuous as this Rasmussen erosion.

[Penelope]

Gallup continues to have slightly less approval than Rasmussen, but Rasmussen continues to have +4 more disapproval.

[Penelope]

For once Gallup is the outlier, not Rasmussen. Probably from disillusioned liberals jumping ship after Libya.

[Penelope]

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

After Dubya, any form of war looks unspeakably horrible to many American liberals.

If this war (let's not kid ourselves that it is anything else) is over quickly and decisively with a good result limited to an erratic dictator either in flight, in custody, or in a casket, then this is more like Grenada than Iraq.

So far I give 100% of the fault for the civil war in Libya to Muammar Qaddafi.

1.  It might be more the hypocrisy factor.  Obama was supposedly anti-war, and he's slowly entering one (though I can make the case he should).

2.  This won't be a short war.

And what exactly do you draw this conclusion from other than the (D) beside Obama's name?

[Penelope]

Gallup Approval Polling - Obama (National)

Approve - 46% (no change)

Disapprove - 46% (+1)

[Penelope]

Gallup Approval Polling - Obama (National)

Approve - 46% (no change)

Disapprove - 45% (-1)

[Penelope]

As someone who lives near Roanoke College (as in, 15 minutes away from here), I can safely say the VA poll is really, really off. Unless of course they just polled Salem City. Then it's right on the money.

[Penelope]

Gallup's up to 44-47. Obama seems to be doing about 2 points better across the board.

[Penelope]

We are sure to see a bounce tomorrow, most of these polls were likely taken prior to the announcement.

[Penelope]

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

That's about a +5 shift since Sunday.

[Penelope]

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

The way the polling seems to be going, it seems like he could reasonably be in the upper fifties by tomorrow or Saturday.

[Penelope]

Gallup's at 48-45. Down 2 from Friday, likely a negative sample. We'll see if it goes back up later today.