The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1207141 times)
Penelope
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Posts: 1,523
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« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2010, 01:54:13 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 57%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.

103% ?

Itīs 46-54 (+4, -3).

Gallup is at 46-46 (+2, -2) today.

Some wild swings lately ...

Maybe something related to 9/11 remembrance?
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Penelope
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Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #26 on: September 12, 2010, 05:29:07 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +4.

Disapprove 57%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -3.


A bad sample has dropped out.

103% ?

Itīs 46-54 (+4, -3).

Gallup is at 46-46 (+2, -2) today.

Some wild swings lately ...

Maybe something related to 9/11 remembrance?

9/11 is still a GOP "day". In view of the 9/12 Tea Party rallies, so is 9/12.

Hardly. 9/11 is an emotional day. Much more likely that Obama's approval goes up slightly in the wake of his speech.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
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Posts: 1,523
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2010, 02:19:54 PM »

Question: does he have any coattails? 

I'd be oh-so-interested in hearing your take on these upcoming midterm elections.

Changing every day.

Pick a day sometime.

Friday?
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Penelope
Scifiguy
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Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #28 on: September 17, 2010, 07:46:47 PM »

Food for thought, a 2012 analysis:


Dark Red: Even in a best case scenario for the GOP, these states would likely still go for Obama. Although by slim margins in some cases.

Medium Red: These states have voted for Obama, but have been seemingly trending Republican in the last few years. The GOP could potentially win any of these with the right candidate.

Red: These states have either voted Republican at least once in the last 4 election cycles, or have been extremely close to voting republican. If Obama is not re-elected, one of these states is likely to go Republican.

Pink: These states voted for Obama, and appear to be trending Democrat. However, they will also be the first to vote for another Republican.

Teal: These states either voted for Obama, and appear to be trending Republican, or voted for McCain and appear to be trending Democrat.

Blue:
These traditionally Republican states could potentially flip to Obama if the economy recovers to an extent.

Medium Blue:
These states are Republican and are only becoming more GOP-friendly. It would take a fool to lose these states.

Dark Blue: Obama would find a hard time pulling off victories in these states even in a 60-40 landslide.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
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Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #29 on: September 19, 2010, 11:51:05 AM »

The hating on pbrower2 is hilarious. He has the right idea, but his system isn't all the great.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
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Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #30 on: September 19, 2010, 03:32:39 PM »

The hating on pbrower2 is hilarious. He has the right idea, but his system isn't all the great.

You have no idea how much of a terrible hack he is.

Yeah, that lunatic keeps showing Obama getting more than 1 electoral vote in the 2012 election.

/sarcasm
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #31 on: September 19, 2010, 03:51:29 PM »

The hating on pbrower2 is hilarious. He has the right idea, but his system isn't all the great.

You have no idea how much of a terrible hack he is.

Yeah, that lunatic keeps showing Obama getting more than 1 electoral vote in the 2012 election.

/sarcasm

How old are you?

17 going on 18. I'm a bit immature, I know, but the hate on pbrower2 is a bit immature as well. I'm probably biased on this, but I fail to see how pbrower2 is a hack, seeing as how your only argument for him being one (that I can see) is that he is not a Republican.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
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Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #32 on: September 19, 2010, 04:36:02 PM »

17 going on 18. I'm a bit immature, I know, but the hate on pbrower2 is a bit immature as well. I'm probably biased on this, but I fail to see how pbrower2 is a hack, seeing as how your only argument for him being one (that I can see) is that he is not a Republican.
No, the argument is how he seems to think negative approval ratings across the country translate into him winning big in 2012. Then there is his air hub thing, and that "no matter how crappy a job, the incumbent will always see 6%+ magically appear". Then there is his tendency to use a poll that clearly shows an unusually high approval, but firmly reject using a poll that shows an unusually low approval, calling it out as a bad poll.

1. It depends, his 2012 predictions are bogus, with the current approval ratings and unemployment numbers, I can tell you that, but I could see his predictions being right if say, Palin was nominated. If the GOP nominates someone with half a brain, it's going to be a bit closer.

2. I don't necessarily see 6+ percent extra going for an incumbent, I could see maybe a 3% bonus, as a lot of progressives and left-leaning independents disapprove of his job but would vote for him in any case come 2012.

3. I agree with the hack sentiment here, obvious bias. Although, I could see this being acceptable by coincidence if he only took polls from one certain polling organization (say, Rasmussen, or Gallup).

That's spot on.

On an unrelated note, I hate his color scheme. BTW, I couldn't care less what he is registered as. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty close to leaving the GOP myself. I like to vote in the primaries, but they are getting to be a little much with their anti-Muslim rhetoric.

His color scheme? I prefer the Green to Yellow, Jbrase's maps make the situation seem far too anti-Obama IMHO. If pbrower counted states with 39% or less approval as a shade of red then I think it would be perfect.

I could see myself voting for a FisCon one day, as it's ridiculous to claim that one economic system works under ever circumstance, but I could never vote for a SoCon. We can debate about economics all day but when it comes to SoCon's, the argument is usually just bigotry or disdain.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
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Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #33 on: September 20, 2010, 09:51:10 AM »

Still no VA polls from any polling organization?

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Penelope
Scifiguy
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Posts: 1,523
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« Reply #34 on: September 21, 2010, 09:59:46 PM »



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

O=Obama '08 State
M=McCain '08 State

Trying out my own color scheme - I don't like PBrower2's or JBrase's, so I'm trying this one out. Let me know what you think.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #35 on: September 22, 2010, 02:47:55 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2010, 04:23:32 PM by Odysseus »

Nebraska should be a blue state.

Anyways, here's mine, I removed Congressional Districts on request and added the Maine poll:



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 105

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 16
Likely Romney - 118
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15

Obama - 259
Romney - 255
Tossup - 24
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #36 on: September 22, 2010, 04:00:39 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.

FoX News is an oxymoron.
Pbrower, you will lose any credibility you still have if you don't include the FOX polls. Because let's face it, if those polls were very pro-Obama, you would have immediately added them. You just don't want to because they aren't good for your messiah.

And before you jump down my throat I also ignore PPP polls due to their affiliation with the Democrats.  

I took the WV PPP poll, only because I believe PPP got something right (for once), it was 34-60 I believe.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #37 on: September 23, 2010, 04:23:09 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2010, 04:30:54 PM by Odysseus »

Bradley effect in full swing with the Obama approval numbers.

Excuse me? What in gods name does the Bradley Effect have to do with approval ratings?

Oh, forget it your probably trolling.



Took the PPP poll and pbrower's other , and sorry but the Quinnipiac poll is a bit of a bad sample IMO, but I decided to take it. I'm evening it out to mean that current approval is at around 54%.



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #38 on: September 23, 2010, 09:06:12 PM »

NIce maps Odysseus.  One quibble though.  I would change "Romney" to "Republican" as we have no idea who the nominee will be in 2012.

As I said, I choose the leading candidate based off the polls. That feature will become more useful around January of 2011.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #39 on: September 23, 2010, 09:33:02 PM »

Added Alabama



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #40 on: September 24, 2010, 02:36:07 PM »

Added Texas.



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #41 on: September 28, 2010, 02:19:28 PM »

His numbers have been remarkably consistent since early this year.  I wonder why now of all times he would be seeing a bit of a boost when there still seems to be an anti-incumbent fervor out there.  

Funny how Gallup always gave him better numbers before and now that Rasmussen has him back above 50% Gallup is showing him at 44%.

 

Maybe that fervor is waning.  Match Gallup for corroboration or refutation.

Too bad Rasmussen doesn't show statewide polls except on a premium service.

Here is a fairly good source for data on Senatorial races:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/Senate/Maps/Sep25-s.html#3

Keeping grasping at those straws....

Nothing, and I mean nothing, has happened to warrant any rebound for Obama. Ras. is just an outlire  at the moment.

I'm going to go back through the thread and hear your explanation for a low Obama number being perfectly rational.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2010, 05:50:11 PM »

Added Illinois - no effect on 2012 Prediction.



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #43 on: October 01, 2010, 04:44:59 PM »

Added Minnesota and New Mexico



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #44 on: October 03, 2010, 02:08:35 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2010, 02:57:48 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.

Reagan too.

Indeed, but at the moment I'm more inclined to believe that Obama will be more like Clinton than a Democratic Reagan. That'll change in the next 2 years, probably.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2010, 03:44:06 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.

Reagan too.

Indeed, but at the moment I'm more inclined to believe that Obama will be more like Clinton than a Democratic Reagan. That'll change in the next 2 years, probably.

No candidate will be winning 49 states any time soon. Tongue

He could still potentially win 60-40 while only winning 40 states.
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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #47 on: October 08, 2010, 06:32:10 PM »

Added Arizona and Hawaii



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
Q-Quinnipiac
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 108

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 0
Likely Romney - 107
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15


Obama - 270
Romney - 244
Tossup - 24
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #48 on: October 09, 2010, 04:50:00 PM »

Gallup 47/46

First time he's been positive in their rankings in a long time.

He was positive in Late July - it's only been a few months, not too long.

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Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2010, 10:31:04 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

Is it possible for him to actually hit 50 without it being a bad sample?

Yes. If it hits 50 then his improvement will continue rising, and the current bad trend we've had over the past few months will switch over to positive 50s, negative 40s. We're not going to stay below the fifties forever (as much as our GOP friends would love you to believe the opposite). Right now, somewhat ironically, Obama's own approval graph looks remarkably similar to Reagan's.
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