The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Penelope]

If someone could post statewide polling, or direct me to them, I could make some maps again.

[Penelope]

Taking up pbrower's old job, hope people don't hate me too much.

-Missouri added.
-California added.
-Maryland added.

Key:


Below 40%: 60% Red
40-44% Approval: 40% Red  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
50%: 10% Yellow (really white)
50-55%: 30% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Out-dated poll = 30% Orange

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December


IF OBAMA WAS ON THE BALLOT:

(this year, Obama versus Republican Front-runner)

 

               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 102 
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin 99
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 15
white                        too close to call  109
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  5
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  50
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   164  
------
Total Obama 215
Total Romney 214
Toss Up 109

[Penelope]

We want electoral vote totals with those maps!

Done.

[Penelope]

Hillary2012,

 There is no such thing as a "Generic Republican". Secondly, the only way Obama could lose Illinois is if it was discovered he was on a strict all-kitten diet.

[Penelope]

Added Polls:

SurveyUSA (NC)
34/54 Oct. 26
PPP (CO)
43/53 Oct. 25
PPP (KY)
34/61 Oct. 26
Muhlenburg College (PA)
41/52 Oct. 27

Key:


Below 40%: 60% Red
40-44% Approval: 40% Red  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
50%: 10% Yellow (really white)
50-55%: 30% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Out-dated poll = 30% Orange

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December


IF OBAMA WAS ON THE BALLOT:

(this year, Obama versus Republican Front-runner)

 

               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 102
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin 99
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 15
white                        too close to call  109
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  5
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  50
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  164  
------
Total Obama 215
Total Romney 214
Toss Up 109

[Penelope]

FOX
Generic Ballot 50-37 R
Obama at 41%

Because, as we all know, FOX is an unbiased, completely trustworthy network.

[Penelope]

Reagan: 42/48 (October 1982)

So guys, what did you think about the Mondale Administration?

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

To be expected, I suspect the President's approval numbers will not approach 50% until after the State of the Union address.

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

To be expected, I suspect the President's approval numbers will not approach 50% until after the State of the Union address.

There is some variability, as seen in the past week, so I thing a 50% mark may be hit again.  He won't hold it beyond a three day period.

The last time that Obama had numbers at or above 50% over a more than three day period was September 27, 2009.  Even the last State of the Union did not produce it.

No, I believe a 50 mark will be hit again - certainly. His work with the now much more Republican congress will improve his numbers, so I would expect to see modest improvement above his current numbers after the first "major" legislative achievement of this new congress. Next spring perhaps. The state of the union this year could potentially improve his numbers I believe, if he shows some humility, responsibility, and confidence to fix the unemployment numbers. If his state of the union is reminiscent of the 2008 Barack Obama, and not the 2010 Barack Obama, I believe it could help him out a lot.

[Penelope]

No, I believe a 50 mark will be hit again - certainly. His work with the now much more Republican congress will improve his numbers, so I would expect to see modest improvement above his current numbers after the first "major" legislative achievement of this new congress. Next spring perhaps. The state of the union this year could potentially improve his numbers I believe, if he shows some humility, responsibility, and confidence to fix the unemployment numbers. If his state of the union is reminiscent of the 2008 Barack Obama, and not the 2010 Barack Obama, I believe it could help him out a lot.

His major achievement might be repealing Obamacare.

The American people did not elect either Barack Obama or John Boehner to repeal heathcare reform.  Only around 10-15% of the electorate thought that healthcare was a major issue this year. The American people elected John Boehner and the Republicans because the economy hasn't recovered yet - not because they are angry with a healthcare law that won't go into effect until the next midterm elections.

If John Boehner puts his effort into repealing "Obamacare" I would expect a swing back to the Democrats in 2012. 

[Penelope]

Key:


Below 40%: 60% Red
40-44% Approval: 40% Red  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
45-49% with Dissaproval Lower: 50% Yellow
50%: 10% Yellow (really white)
50-55%: 30% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Out-dated poll = 30% Orange

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

[Penelope]

Added Virginia.

[Penelope]

@pbrower2a:

 Virginia would actually be 30% green, as the results of the PPP poll were 50-45-5.

[Penelope]

Obama is at 40%  by YouGov

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbig.assets.huffingtonpost.com%2F20101116.pdf&h=e8505

Okay, we get it, you don't like Obama. This doesn't mean you have to go cherrypicking polls that have the lowest approval ratings for him.

[Penelope]

As I said earlier, shouldn't Virginia be 30% green? It was 50-45-5.  

[Penelope]

Don't worry too much about it, Mr. Phips, it's just a way the hack extraordinaire justifies Obama's mediocre approval ratings.  There's nothing real behind it other than a default defense of everything Obama or Democratic.

So says someone whose avatar is a convicted criminal.

lol

[Penelope]

Shouldn't this thread be titled the Official NFL Quarterbacks Discussion Thread?

[Penelope]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

Highestt Approve number since 3/14/10; I strongly suspect a skewed pro-Obama sample.

Considering that he has passed more successful major legislation than he has in several months, and all in the lame duck session, I'd say this is not too far out of range for the President. If we consider the possibility that Rasmussen may not be hitting as many of the disenchanted liberals as Gallup is, I'd say that a 4 or 5 point gap could reasonably exist between the two pollsters.  

Since November, Obama's Democratic Approval has dropped from 83% to 79% - a four point margin which could explain the drop in Gallup, but the rise in Rasmussen.

[Penelope]

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.

[Penelope]

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.

Gallup is a bouncy poll. It swings a lot.

This is, unfortunately, sometimes true. However, Gallup is the only sufficiently accurate poll that gives as much information as it does without charging me for it.

[Penelope]

But you haven't strongly suspected a skewed anti-Obama sample the last 2 years?

Of course I have, repeatedly.  It generally has been.

Or perhaps Barack Obama is more popular than you assume.

To me, it appears that the President's approval rating has been on the rise (albeit very slowly) since late August to early September, rising from a low of 43% in Gallup's polling in the middle of August.

EDIT: Anvikshiki's reply on the last page includes a poll that would seem to confirm this.

Or a pro-Obama sample dropped.

Now, long term, Obama is up from his lows.

Exactly my point.

[Penelope]

Joe,

He's not getting 50% anywhere besides perhaps the Washington Post poll.

Ras's 51% disapproval is as hardened as you can get.  That number isn't improving even if the economy comes back dramatically.  If you believe Rasmussen, Obama's goose is cooked.

By this logic both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan should be one term Presidents.

[Penelope]

By your logic, if Obama gets over 50%, he's guaranteed to win just like George H.W. Bush was in 1991.

Actually no. If Obama gets over 50% he'll just be better off to win. GHWB had high approvals right up to 1992, and then fell sharply. Such is the trend with Presidents like Carter, Bush 41, and Bush 43. They tend to have high approvals, maintain them for a while, and then see a sharp decline in their approval ratings.

[Penelope]

Brower,

Even your boys at the Daily Kos show her up in Montana, a state that Obama only lost by 3 last time with plenty more undecided Republicans than Democrats.

Explain to me how Obama wins 47 states against her if he cannot win Montana (and there's no way he would win if you look at the undecideds).

You realize there's this whole five month process of campaigning, which includes three debates, and would likely change the landscape of any election by November?

[Penelope]

Incorporating Fair and Poor in the same category is very odd. I'd give the President a "fair" job, and I still think he's doing better than any Republican in next year's field would.