The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5350 on: July 18, 2010, 10:49:22 AM »

Pbrower, I disagree with you on Colorado. 55% disapprove of Obama, with 48% of it being strongly approve. 48% are almost guaranteed to vote against Obama, while only 29% is guaranteed. That's be either slight Republican or toss-up, but certainly not slight Democratic.
Well your forgetting to factor in the "plus six" rule so that bumps it to 51% that'll vote for him. Then we cannot forget the "age wave" which should add at least 10% more, leaving us with 61%. Now we must also remember that this is all before the Obama campaign starts to get in high gear, and Obama will be able to utilize Chicago's air hub, we could be looking at Colorado going more than 70% for the president.I don't understand why Pbrower doesn't have CO in a darker shade of red.

The "plus six" is well documented for incumbent Senators and Governors in electoral campaigns. It does not allow for any "age wave", and it has nothing to do with any air hub theory.  Incumbents, to be sure, can have campaigns that melt down (think of Senator George Allen in 2006); they might also start so far behind (Santorum, 2006; Corzine, 2009) that the usual advantages for an incumbent aren't strong enough to allow a recovery from a bad start. It might not be so strong for someone appointed to the position, which doesn't apply this time. I am not going to count on an age wave until I see it.

By having won  election beforehand, the incumbent has shown that he knows how to preside over a campaign. Running for election is ordinarily much like running for election the first time. Does anyone question that the the Obama campaign mastered electoral mechanics in 2008? Does anyone question that the re-election campaign of 2012 wouldn't do much the same? Does anyone believe that those electoral mechanics will be less effective in 2012? I am not asking whether you believe that President Obama is such a failure (that he is the New Jimmy Carter) that no brilliant methods of campaigning will rescue him in 2012.

Successful incumbents do not ordinarily have a primary challenge that gives  copious material for negative campaigning on the Other Side. Any rising star in the Democratic party -- let us say a red-meat populist -- is going to wait for 2016. We all saw 2008. We saw that even though he seemed to be a reasonably-easy target for just about any imaginable GOP nominee in 2008  he found ways in which to establish support for him. He got almost all of those who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Polls suggested that he was doing less than well-enough-to-win in states like Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania that he absolutely had to win to have a chance. He solidified his support there and then went on to other places. Then he went on to campaign in places like Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, new Mexico, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana (!!!), Missouri, Montana, and Georgia where polls seemed to indicate that he had a chance.  He won enough.

He didn't pile up support in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he didn't make vain efforts to win Kansas or Alabama.  I expect much the same. perhaps with a different cast of states.  If he is still doing badly in Colorado or North Carolina and has no chance there but has good chances in Ohio, then he's going to spend lots of time in Ohio. Then again if Tennessee seems like a good place to campaign, then he will be there, and so will be the TV, radio, and billboard ads.

The 6%+ model is actually muted in two ways: first, that I don't expect him to try to campaign where polls suggest that he has an approval rating below 40%, so I give him nothing there; second, that I see him pulling out of any state when he has a comfortable 10% lead. The model indicates that a Governor or Senator who has a sub-40% approval rating goes to desperate efforts to win his state for lack of alternative strategies and that if his approval is around 60% he sticks around and piles up the percentages. The model mutes the high end in that he is not going to try to win 80% of the vote in Vermont or even 60% of the vote in Michigan while losing the election on the whole. My model says that if he has an approval rating of 51% in Iowa in April 2012 he isn't going to win 57%, but instead something like 54%.

Note well the lesson of 2000: the popular vote does not decide the election; the popular votes in the individual states do.

The critical area for deciding whether President Obama and his campaign put early efforts into a state can be predicted by early poll numbers:

40% or lower: Don't try. Other places are more fruitful. Losing 60-39 and losing 53-46 have much the same consequences, and losing 53-46 is no good. There's just not enough time in which to change political attitudes, and if you didn't do so in three years, you won't do so in six months. (Texas)

41-42% -- make token effort in case it works. Maybe you won the state in 2008; there might be some magic left. There might be a positive trend to exploit. See how things turn out; you may need to pull resources away toward something else. You might also pour in resources late or give up when efforts seem futile (the difference between North Carolina and North Dakota in 2008).

43% to 46%  -- the gray area.  In a close election, these are the states that decide victory or defeat. The football coach in every good politician comes to the fore: the extra effort may be enough to win. More resources include appearances with a Governor or Senator who needs some help. Sometimes a politician has a logistical advantage to exploit (probably the difference between Indiana 2008 and Indiana 2012). There might be a demographic trend, and there might be constituencies drifting away from the Other Side. In what ends up a close election, a few such states could be vital. (Colorado is in this area)

50% of the vote is a sure win; it is possible to win with 49%+ (IN, NC; MO and MT were near-misses). There will be third-party candidates, and winning or losing a particular may depend  upon campaigning to cut into support to third-party candidates on one's side of the spectrum (for Obama, Nader in 2008) and treating those who might undercut the main opponent (Barr, 2008) with kid gloves.

47%-49%. It doesn't take much to win a state in this area outright. An incumbent is a proven candidate -- for better or worse. This model assumes that the incumbent knows what he is doing as a campaigner.  The last four Presidents to have no experience in statewide office or the Senate (Hoover, Eisenhower, Ford, G. H. W. Bush) got into the Presidency after facing weak or severely-flawed opposition or got to the Presidency with a series of weird events. Not that it wouldn't have helped him much, Hoover was not the ebullient character that he needed to be to defeat FDR even without the worst economic meltdown in history. Eisenhower did little campaigning in 1956 and didn't need to; I figure that his popularity was in the mid-fifties throughout most of his first term and that's about how he did in the popular vote in 1956, did little campaigning and went nowhere in the popular vote (which was adequate). Ford didn't learn fast enough how to campaign to preserve his Presidency; he was gaining on Carter and ran short of time. The elder Bush? No idea of what to do in a Second Act.

The incumbent usually has an advantage and can turn near-50% approval into 50% of the vote.  Michigan.

50%-53%? In a close election the incumbent won't try to run up the voting percentage in such places. If things go wrong he take desperate rearguard actions that probably lose votes elsewhere. But he's not going to try to raise a 53% approval into 60% of the vote. 55% of the vote is safe enough.  Minnesota.

54% or more? He is probably winning in a blowout anyway at least in that state.  New York.

   

   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5351 on: July 18, 2010, 12:17:56 PM »

Believe it or not, Mississippi - with no poll since Nov. 2008 - checks in:

Rasmussen:

37% Approve
60% Disapprove

(Gov. Haley Barbour)

70% Approve
28% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Mississippi was conducted on July 12, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5352 on: July 18, 2010, 12:22:48 PM »

MS


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5353 on: July 18, 2010, 12:31:29 PM »

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is also up for the second day now:

49% Approve (+5)
44% Disapprove (-4)

Maybe because the oil well is closed, but we need to wait a few more days to evaluate.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5354 on: July 18, 2010, 01:40:44 PM »

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is also up for the second day now:

49% Approve (+5)
44% Disapprove (-4)

Maybe because the oil well is closed, but we need to wait a few more days to evaluate.

Yesterday, the 'bots had him down.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5355 on: July 18, 2010, 02:42:25 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2010, 12:33:44 PM by pbrower2a »

Georgia, Mississippi updates




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

48 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 161
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  34
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 126
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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J. J.
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« Reply #5356 on: July 19, 2010, 10:12:46 AM »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


There could be some pro-Obama movement or statistical noise; we've seen two days of moderately better numbers.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5357 on: July 19, 2010, 12:17:27 PM »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


There could be some pro-Obama movement or statistical noise; we've seen two days of moderately better numbers.

It could be the reduction of political tension over the end of the blowout in the Gulf. So far it looks at most like a rebound. Any ringing endorsement of President Obama yet to arrive, if ever, comes later. I'm not sure that President Obama could do much, as the solution to the gusher was one of engineering and not of politics. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5358 on: July 19, 2010, 12:31:56 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2010, 07:39:11 AM by pbrower2a »

Alaska Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted July 15, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been

doing?

  

    26% Strongly approve

    14% Somewhat approve

      7% Somewhat disapprove

    51% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure

...Better than expected in Alaska.

Connecticut State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

32% Strongly approve
22% Somewhat approve
  8% Somewhat disapprove
37% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

48 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 161
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  37
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 123
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......




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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5359 on: July 20, 2010, 12:11:39 AM »

Maine (Rasmussen): 50-49

Link

Arkansas (Magellan Strategies-R): 26-69

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-AR-US-Senate-Kagan-Nomination-Press-Release-071910.pdf

Nebraska (Magellan Strategies-R): 30-63

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-NE-2012-US-Senate-Kagan-Nomination-Survey-Press-Release-071910.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5360 on: July 20, 2010, 12:21:41 AM »

PA (Rasmussen): 45-54

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5361 on: July 20, 2010, 12:42:23 AM »

NJ (Monmouth University):

Adults: 52-42

Registered Voters: 51-42

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP34_3.pdf
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5362 on: July 20, 2010, 12:50:58 AM »

Arkansas has earned its own category,
AR, ME, PA, NE, NJ, & AK


Arkansas - Dark Blue
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Following in Pbrower's footsteps, I'll post a incumbant re-election map

Light blue - lean GOP
Blue - even leanier GOP
Dark blue -  Obama, just give up on.

Light red - On the verge of voting GOP
Red - Safe Obama
Dark red - Bad samples of polls

Grey seceded
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J. J.
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« Reply #5363 on: July 20, 2010, 09:34:50 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.


The moderately better numbers were just noise.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5364 on: July 20, 2010, 11:06:24 AM »

Idaho Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    18% Strongly approve
    14% Somewhat approve
      7% Somewhat disapprove
    61% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure

AR, NE updates as well. It's safe to assume that NE-03 is even more Republican-leaning than Nebraska than the whole -- probably about as much as Wyoming. Hint: Dick Cheney was born there. For lack of precision about districts that do not vote alike, I will give only the poll result for NE-03 as well as the statewide poll in the top map of polls and project that President Obama would lose NE-01 by at least 10%.

NE-01 votes like Texas.
NE-02 votes like Indiana.
NE-03 votes like Wyoming.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled. .





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 161
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  37
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5365 on: July 20, 2010, 12:45:15 PM »

OH (Rasmussen): 46-54

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5366 on: July 20, 2010, 12:49:46 PM »

FL (PPP): 45-49

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_720.pdf

NV (PPP): 44-52

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_720.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5367 on: July 20, 2010, 12:58:11 PM »

WI (Magellan Strategies): 41-52

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-Wisconsin-US-Senate-Elena-Kagan-Survey-Press-Release-072010.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5368 on: July 20, 2010, 01:28:25 PM »

Here's a good reason to avoid using polls by Magellan Strategies in maps of approval:

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/about/company-info

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You can trust that I will not be using their polls on my maps.
 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5369 on: July 20, 2010, 01:43:02 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2010, 01:52:17 PM by pbrower2a »

Magellan polls removed, Arkansas and Nebraska.  See the previous post for the reason.  FL, OH, NV polls by PPP and Rasmussen recognized

March poll dropped for Nebraska, and it is shown in 40% color once to show the visual contrast between 30%, 40%, and 50% yellow in it and neighboring states. I doubt that anyone believes that Obama's support in Nebraska is anywhere near 44% (it's probably in the high 30s).





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

48 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House (not counting a poll by a near-affiliate of the GOP in Nebraska. The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  37
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


Note that I have just added a level of support of 44% to fit the "too close to call category".
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« Reply #5370 on: July 20, 2010, 01:50:38 PM »

Here's a good reason to avoid using polls by Magellan Strategies in maps of approval:

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/about/company-info

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You can trust that I will not be using their polls on my maps.
 

To be fair, since it's an (R) pollster and excluded, i'm just gonna point out that PPP is a (D) pollster...
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5371 on: July 20, 2010, 02:07:00 PM »

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You can trust that I will not be using their polls on my maps.
 

Phew, thank goodness. For a moment there, I was worried your maps might get infiltrated with partisan bias.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5372 on: July 20, 2010, 07:28:47 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2010, 07:13:42 AM by pbrower2a »

OK, a legitimate poll for Nebraska:

   Nebraska State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

18% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
15% Somewhat disapprove
51% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

....

NE-03 is one of the most GOP-leaning districts in the US; NE-01 is fairly close to Nebraska as a whole in its voting, and NE-02 votes about 8% less R than the state as a whole.

Minnesota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 19, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

32% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
38% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House (not counting a poll by a near-affiliate of the GOP now including a valid poll in Nebraska. The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  38
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 131
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


Note that I have just added a level of support of 44% to fit the "too close to call category".
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Derek
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« Reply #5373 on: July 20, 2010, 11:53:50 PM »

That map is looking better everyday. Will the GOP win it back? Yes we can!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5374 on: July 21, 2010, 12:53:52 AM »

MN (FOX News 9/Rasmussen): 49-50

http://media2.myfoxtwincities.com/docs/ToplinesMNGovernorJuly192010.doc
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