The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5325 on: July 15, 2010, 09:39:12 PM »
« edited: July 15, 2010, 09:45:33 PM by Vote Yellow, Get Blue »


This amused me:
Do you think are more responsible for the current condition of the economy?
30% Democratic policies, 41% Republican policies, 21% both equally

Do you think are more likely to improve the condition of the country?
37% Democratic policies, 40% Republican policies, 9% both equally

So, Republican policies got America in its current state and Republican policies will fix it... sure, that makes sense...
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Smid
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« Reply #5326 on: July 15, 2010, 09:42:38 PM »

Does anyone want to predict what happens to polls after Wall Street Reform and the first stop of the gusher in the Gulf?

We shall see.

The change in the polls will probably be about the same as the change in the polls following the passage of Health Reform legislation.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5327 on: July 15, 2010, 11:09:30 PM »


This amused me:
Do you think are more responsible for the current condition of the economy?
30% Democratic policies, 41% Republican policies, 21% both equally

Do you think are more likely to improve the condition of the country?
37% Democratic policies, 40% Republican policies, 9% both equally

So, Republican policies got America in its current state and Republican policies will fix it... sure, that makes sense...

Republocratic policies got us into this mess, and Republocratic policies will make it worse. However Americans keep falling for the same old lies and run back-and-forth between the two wings of the Republocrat party.
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Derek
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« Reply #5328 on: July 16, 2010, 03:36:52 AM »

TX, MD, WI & DE

Rasmussen : DE: 49 / 48
Link


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green


I'd laugh if he lost Biden's home state.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5329 on: July 16, 2010, 05:50:29 AM »

Rasmussen polled Mississippi a few days ago - but only about oil.

Meh.

We could have seen the first approval rating there since Nov. 2008 !

Angry
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J. J.
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« Reply #5330 on: July 16, 2010, 09:51:39 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 54% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

Still within range.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5331 on: July 16, 2010, 10:13:32 AM »

WI (Univ. of Wisconsin Badger Poll):

Adults (500): 49-46
Likely Voters (297): 47-50

Results shown here are based on 500 persons who were randomly chosen within households with working landline telephone numbers and interviewed between June 9th and July 10th, 2010, inclusive. During this time period, the UWSC made 12,889 phone calls to 2,245 telephone numbers. Additionally, advance letters describing the survey and its procedures were sent to 800 households whose randomly chosen telephone numbers were matched to a known listed address. The response rate for this survey was 38.2%, as defined by the American Association of Public Opinion Research Response Rate 3. Calls were made between 9AM and 9PM Monday through Friday and between 10AM and 5PM on Saturday and from 12 noon to 9PM on Sunday. All telephone numbers were randomly generated by computer. The UWSC made up to 10 attempts on each number in order to confirm if it was a residential number, select an eligible respondent and/or to convert first time refusals. Approximately 51% of the 500 interviews were completed in the first two weeks of calling. Theoretically, results from this survey have a "margin of error" of a little over +/- 4%.

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP30PressRelease4_AppRatings.pdf
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You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5332 on: July 16, 2010, 10:28:25 AM »

WI (Univ. of Wisconsin Badger Poll):

Adults (500): 49-46
Likely Voters (297): 47-50

They think there's gonna be 60% turnout? LOL
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5333 on: July 16, 2010, 10:29:48 AM »

Does anyone want to predict what happens to polls after Wall Street Reform and the first stop of the gusher in the Gulf?

We shall see.

The change in the polls will probably be about the same as the change in the polls following the passage of Health Reform legislation.

In fact, the gusher in the Gulf tore at approval ratings for President Obama. I expect some rebound.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5334 on: July 16, 2010, 10:31:20 AM »

Does anyone want to predict what happens to polls after Wall Street Reform and the first stop of the gusher in the Gulf?

We shall see.

The change in the polls will probably be about the same as the change in the polls following the passage of Health Reform legislation.

In fact, the gusher in the Gulf tore at approval ratings for President Obama. I expect some rebound.

To be fair, it wasn't so much the gusher as the awful response in that White House televised address.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5335 on: July 16, 2010, 12:43:12 PM »

WA is 50-49 btw, according to Ras.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5336 on: July 16, 2010, 02:57:36 PM »

Colorado is 45-55 (Rasmussen).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5337 on: July 16, 2010, 05:18:42 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2010, 05:22:19 PM by pbrower2a »

Colorado Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted July 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   29% Strongly approve
   16% Somewhat approve
      7% Somewhat disapprove
   48% Strongly disapprove
      0% Not sure

Washington State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted July 14, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    28% Strongly approve
    22% Somewhat approve
      7% Somewhat disapprove
    42% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

47 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 161
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  52
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  50
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 103
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5338 on: July 16, 2010, 06:31:37 PM »

I've been kind of lazy in doing the charts of state-by-state national averages, but here's the national numbers as of now:

All State Polls:  46% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Rasmussen (3-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Rasmussen (1-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 52% Disapprove
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve, 49% Disapprove
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Chief Justice PiT
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« Reply #5339 on: July 16, 2010, 06:35:19 PM »

     Hmm, Rasmussen is showing the same margin as other pollsters; it is merely that the undecideds are basically nonexistent in the Rasmussen poll. I suppose this will have no effect on the (albeit relenting) Democratic narrative that Rasmussen is in the pocket of the Republican Party.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5340 on: July 17, 2010, 08:37:23 AM »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -2.

Disapprove 55% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Upper edge of the range on the Strongly Approve number.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5341 on: July 17, 2010, 12:38:49 PM »

Pbrower, I disagree with you on Colorado. 55% disapprove of Obama, with 48% of it being strongly approve. 48% are almost guaranteed to vote against Obama, while only 29% is guaranteed. That's be either slight Republican or toss-up, but certainly not slight Democratic.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5342 on: July 17, 2010, 12:54:55 PM »

Pbrower, I disagree with you on Colorado. 55% disapprove of Obama, with 48% of it being strongly approve. 48% are almost guaranteed to vote against Obama, while only 29% is guaranteed. That's be either slight Republican or toss-up, but certainly not slight Democratic.
Well your forgetting to factor in the "plus six" rule so that bumps it to 51% that'll vote for him. Then we cannot forget the "age wave" which should add at least 10% more, leaving us with 61%. Now we must also remember that this is all before the Obama campaign starts to get in high gear, and Obama will be able to utilize Chicago's air hub, we could be looking at Colorado going more than 70% for the president.I don't understand why Pbrower doesn't have CO in a darker shade of red.
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#CriminalizeSobriety
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« Reply #5343 on: July 17, 2010, 10:47:03 PM »

Pbrower, I disagree with you on Colorado. 55% disapprove of Obama, with 48% of it being strongly approve. 48% are almost guaranteed to vote against Obama, while only 29% is guaranteed. That's be either slight Republican or toss-up, but certainly not slight Democratic.
Well your forgetting to factor in the "plus six" rule so that bumps it to 51% that'll vote for him. Then we cannot forget the "age wave" which should add at least 10% more, leaving us with 61%. Now we must also remember that this is all before the Obama campaign starts to get in high gear, and Obama will be able to utilize Chicago's air hub, we could be looking at Colorado going more than 70% for the president.I don't understand why Pbrower doesn't have CO in a darker shade of red.

That seems to be a little hackish towards the Republicans, no?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5344 on: July 18, 2010, 12:22:51 AM »

Georgia (Mason-Dixon):

37% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.onlineathens.com/stories/071810/new_677548058.shtml
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #5345 on: July 18, 2010, 12:24:39 AM »


tossup
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5346 on: July 18, 2010, 12:29:40 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2010, 11:48:24 AM by SE Gov. JBrase »

CO, WA, WI, & GA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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5280
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« Reply #5347 on: July 18, 2010, 08:02:25 AM »

pbrower has his maps skewed in favor for democrats, it's freakin obvious he wants Obama to win or he'd cry a river like a baby.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5348 on: July 18, 2010, 08:48:05 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +2.

Disapprove 54% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5349 on: July 18, 2010, 09:01:29 AM »

pbrower has his maps skewed in favor for democrats, it's freakin obvious he wants Obama to win or he'd cry a river like a baby.

I confess that after both victories of George Worthless Bush I played the Reuqiem Mass of Giuseppe Verdi on my sound system. Some people have their ways of dealing with grief. A bad political scene does not begin with  the same inevitability as an elderly loved one with congestive heart failure.

 I have a right to be a partisan hack. I have a right to optimism on behalf of Democrats and pessimism on behalf of likely achievements of Republicans, especially those who exhibit an odd combination of deference toward wealth and corporate power and demagoguery that capitalizes on and promotes gross ignorance. Well, so does everyone else here, and I can understand that some GOP  supporters believe that if we all defer to corporate power, accept that rewards of pie in the sky are adequate compensation for economic insecurity and gross inequity, and that a twisting of language to support a political agenda has justification in any success is worth it. Most of us agree that major elections have consequences, and I see few neutrals here.

I see no evidence that the GOP has learned anything from its last episode of power except to be more secretive, stubborn, and ruthless.    
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