The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #5100 on: June 17, 2010, 09:01:25 PM »

I don't know what to make of this poll.  Do Republicans believe that Democrats in Congress  well represent Democratic voters (if not Republican conservatives) and Democrats believe that Republicans in Congress represent  republican voters (if also not Democrats) badly?



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Whatever, Republicans in Congress seem to have more problems with credibility.

ROTFLOL!!!

I can explain that with relative ease.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5101 on: June 17, 2010, 09:35:31 PM »


Based on what?  The last time Obama ran for reelection?  Bush was at the mid-50s at reelection, he didn't win in the mid-60s.  But you know, Republicans don't see boosts only Democrats do.  Add 5% for Democrats being polled, subtract 5% for Republicans, right?

First of all, prbower2a is Vanderblubb, who has frequently parodied me.  Vanderblubb is a gadfly to be ignored. I do not endorse his mock-extremist rhetoric.

Second, I have set my own rules for my set of maps. I base my prediction of how a politician will do if running a re-election campaign based on the observation by Nate Silver at the reputable www.fivethirtyeight.com -- that incumbents ordinarily gain about 6% support (interpreted as "vote shares")  in the last few months of a campaign. An incumbent with an approval rating of 44% in a gubernatorial or senatorial race a few months before the election has about a 50% chance of winning. Silver suggests that 44% is also the borderline for a 50% chance of winning the Presidential election nationwide. But I am going on a state-by-state basis, and I assume that winning a state is much like winning by a governor or Senator who has a statewide election.

Third, this is MY model, and I have the prerogative to do with it what I want.  If anything I mute the effect for states in which the President is above 46% (in which he is less likely to see a need to campaign in a state) or below 40% (in which he has no real chance of winning) in an approval rating. The 2008 election showed Barack Obama cutting down on his efforts to win a state when he was down by more than 10% (effort would be futile) or by more than 10% (in which case such effort would be wasteful of resources better used elsewhere).  I expect much the same in 2012 if the election is at least as close as the election of 2008 -- either way.

That is the only way in which President Obama could have won by such large margins as he did in some states and lose so badly in others and win most of the close states.  

Fourth, I have found myself judging few polls. Whatever bias Rasmussen has, his polls seem consistent enough. For some states, polls can jump wildly (look at South Dakota) -- polling is not a perfect science. So who are you to claim that this poll of Tennessee isn't valid?  The state hasn't been polled since February, so what would I know? What do you know?

Fifth, I have stated that I consider the Tennessee poll a surprise, especially in view of the poor and even execrable approval ratings for the President in Arkansas and Kentucky, states that I would consider likely to be most like Tennessee in voting in 2008.  If Rasmussen shows Obama with a 38% approval rating then Tennessee goes orange or even brown on my approval map and deep blue on my prediction map. Sure, Rasmussen might have a bad sample -- one that perhaps has too many people from Greater Memphis. Such can happen, at least in theory.

Sixth, although most of us can reasonably predict who the Democratic nominee for President will be in 2012 (even that involves some assumptions) we have little idea who the Republican nominee will be that year. Without question, Mike Huckabee would do far better against Obama in Tennessee than would, let's say, Rudy Giuliani. No fooling!  
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« Reply #5102 on: June 17, 2010, 09:55:20 PM »


Based on what?  The last time Obama ran for reelection?  Bush was at the mid-50s at reelection, he didn't win in the mid-60s.  But you know, Republicans don't see boosts only Democrats do.  Add 5% for Democrats being polled, subtract 5% for Republicans, right?

First of all, prbower2a is Vanderblubb, who has frequently parodied me.  Vanderblubb is a gadfly to be ignored. I do not endorse his mock-extremist rhetoric.

Second, I have set my own rules for my set of maps. I base my prediction of how a politician will do if running a re-election campaign based on the observation by Nate Silver at the reputable www.fivethirtyeight.com -- that incumbents ordinarily gain about 6% support (interpreted as "vote shares")  in the last few months of a campaign. An incumbent with an approval rating of 44% in a gubernatorial or senatorial race a few months before the election has about a 50% chance of winning. Silver suggests that 44% is also the borderline for a 50% chance of winning the Presidential election nationwide. But I am going on a state-by-state basis, and I assume that winning a state is much like winning by a governor or Senator who has a statewide election.

Third, this is MY model, and I have the prerogative to do with it what I want.  If anything I mute the effect for states in which the President is above 46% (in which he is less likely to see a need to campaign in a state) or below 40% (in which he has no real chance of winning) in an approval rating. The 2008 election showed Barack Obama cutting down on his efforts to win a state when he was down by more than 10% (effort would be futile) or by more than 10% (in which case such effort would be wasteful of resources better used elsewhere).  I expect much the same in 2012 if the election is at least as close as the election of 2008 -- either way.

That is the only way in which President Obama could have won by such large margins as he did in some states and lose so badly in others and win most of the close states.  

Fourth, I have found myself judging few polls. Whatever bias Rasmussen has, his polls seem consistent enough. For some states, polls can jump wildly (look at South Dakota) -- polling is not a perfect science. So who are you to claim that this poll of Tennessee isn't valid?  The state hasn't been polled since February, so what would I know? What do you know?

Fifth, I have stated that I consider the Tennessee poll a surprise, especially in view of the poor and even execrable approval ratings for the President in Arkansas and Kentucky, states that I would consider likely to be most like Tennessee in voting in 2008.  If Rasmussen shows Obama with a 38% approval rating then Tennessee goes orange or even brown on my approval map and deep blue on my prediction map. Sure, Rasmussen might have a bad sample -- one that perhaps has too many people from Greater Memphis. Such can happen, at least in theory.

Sixth, although most of us can reasonably predict who the Democratic nominee for President will be in 2012 (even that involves some assumptions) we have little idea who the Republican nominee will be that year. Without question, Mike Huckabee would do far better against Obama in Tennessee than would, let's say, Rudy Giuliani. No fooling!  

Keep dreaming. Bush could have very easily been voted out of office with a 53% approval rating the night he was reelected. Don't forget that Obama can win the popular vote and still win the election.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5103 on: June 18, 2010, 08:47:14 AM »


Arkansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

24% Strongly approve
14% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
49% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure

As Tennessee goes, Arkansas usually goes, too.  Not this time!

TEXAS

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 16, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

28% Strongly approve

12% Somewhat approve

  9% Somewhat disapprove

51% Strongly disapprove

  0% Not sure

(note that a small change in the approval rating makes a big difference at that level. I have suggested that Obama would likely to do better in Texas in 2012 -- if not win it - than in 2012... but this poll says that the improvement would not be enough to swing the giant state).



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.


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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5104 on: June 18, 2010, 10:15:05 AM »


Arkansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

24% Strongly approve
14% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
49% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure

As Tennessee goes, Arkansas usually goes, too.  Not this time!

The polls are virtually identical where it counts:

In Tennessee, 25% strongly approve. Compare that with 24% here.
In Tennessee, 47% strongly disapprove. Compare that with 49% here.

Those are the most important numbers. Surely, you must agree that people who strongly disapprove of the president are almost guaranteed to vote against him, and that people who strongly approve are almost guaranteed to vote for him. It's the "somewhats" who are fluid enough to tip the balance.

Even if you go down to the somewhat approve/disapprove numbers, you're 14 vs. 17 and 12 vs. 10. A little better for the President, but Tennessee was a little better for the President in 2008. He lost TN by 15%; Arkansas by 20%.

If anything, the poll is shockingly... unshocking!

TEXAS

Texas Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 16, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

28% Strongly approve

12% Somewhat approve

  9% Somewhat disapprove

51% Strongly disapprove

  0% Not sure

(note that a small change in the approval rating makes a big difference at that level. I have suggested that Obama would likely to do better in Texas in 2012 -- if not win it - than in 2012... but this poll says that the improvement would not be enough to swing the giant state).

Obama is strongly disapproved of by more than half of the state. I mean, Jesus, that's worse than how he's viewed in Arkansas!

Obama's numbers in Texas suggest a loss there of epic proportions. It amuses me to no end that you reminded everybody that you think (or perhaps thought) that Obama can win it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5105 on: June 18, 2010, 01:16:52 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 41% -2.

Disapprove 58% , +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, u.

First, this might be a bad sample.

Second, this is the lowest Approve and highest Disapprove numbers Obama has ever had.  This is also the first time that his Strongly Disapprove have been ahead of Approve for three days running.  If it is there tomorrow, Obama will be showing a major decline.
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Derek
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« Reply #5106 on: June 18, 2010, 01:33:18 PM »

Did you guys see him at only 54% in New York. He would lose California with that kind of approval rating trend.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5107 on: June 18, 2010, 01:52:11 PM »

Obama is also at 45% Approve, 46% Disapprove on Gallup.

I doubt that he'll have an eight point jump by tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5108 on: June 18, 2010, 01:58:59 PM »

In CNN's new poll, Obama is at 50-48 approve.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/06/17/rel9a.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5109 on: June 18, 2010, 02:09:49 PM »

New York State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 16, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
23% Somewhat approve
11% Somewhat disapprove
33% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.



[/quote]
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5110 on: June 18, 2010, 02:13:56 PM »

AR, TX, & NY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5111 on: June 18, 2010, 02:20:12 PM »

AR, TX, & NY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Maine needs to be a "6" on your map I think ...
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5112 on: June 18, 2010, 02:43:09 PM »

AR, TX, & NY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Maine needs to be a "6" on your map I think ...
I keep on trying t type in 6 but every time it just shows up as 4
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5113 on: June 19, 2010, 09:10:04 AM »

Rasmussen (June 19)Sad

42% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (-1)

25% Strongly Approve (nc)
45% Strongly Disapprove (-1)
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J. J.
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« Reply #5114 on: June 19, 2010, 09:43:29 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% +1.

Disapprove 57% , +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

(for formatting)

This is not a bad sample and represents a very significant decline in Obama's numbers.  His Approve numbers are now consistently running below his Strongly Disapprove numbers. 

This could be the beginning of a summer slide like last year.

The only "good" news for Obama is that his Strongly Approve numbers are slightly above the record lows.
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« Reply #5115 on: June 19, 2010, 09:52:22 AM »

This is very very bad.  He needs to pull something big off soon in order to recover and still have a chance at keeping control.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5116 on: June 19, 2010, 10:08:35 AM »

Right now, on Gallup's monthly Obama has the highest disapproval numbers of any president since Carter at this point in his presidency, except for Reagan.  The difference is Reagan's approval numbers were lower than Obama's, but there more "no opinion" people.  In Obama's case, there is very hostile anti-Obama element to the population, and it is growing. 

Where people are making up their minds about Obama, they are deciding against him and there is also a shift from approve to disapprove.
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« Reply #5117 on: June 19, 2010, 04:28:07 PM »

They'll be chasing this guy out of town with pitchforks before all is said and done.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5118 on: June 19, 2010, 06:07:27 PM »

omg the end is clearly near
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« Reply #5119 on: June 19, 2010, 06:30:05 PM »

America isn't liking Obama as well as they used to. Fine.

They still prefer him to Palin-Romney-Huckabee-Gingrich-Johnson-Paul etcetc.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5120 on: June 19, 2010, 06:50:24 PM »

America isn't liking Obama as well as they used to. Fine.

They still prefer him to Palin-Romney-Huckabee-Gingrich-Johnson-Paul etcetc.

I wouldn't be too sure about that.  It can become ABO situation, anybody but Obama.  That is why the strongly disapprove number is important.
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« Reply #5121 on: June 19, 2010, 09:12:48 PM »


Not until the economy collapses again.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5122 on: June 20, 2010, 07:14:41 AM »

Rasmussen (June 20)Sad

43% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (nc)

28% Strongly Approve (+3)
44% Strongly Disapprove (-1)
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Rowan
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« Reply #5123 on: June 20, 2010, 08:30:43 AM »

Rasmussen (June 20)Sad

43% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (nc)

28% Strongly Approve (+3)
44% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Obama SURGEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
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« Reply #5124 on: June 20, 2010, 10:03:09 AM »

Rasmussen (June 20)Sad

43% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (nc)

28% Strongly Approve (+3)
44% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Obama SURGEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

Actually, it marks the fifth day in a row where Strongly Disapproved is higher than Approve.

The "surge" to 28% might be a bad sample.
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