The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I'm back!

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I still want to know how in hell the Northwest is in Red.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Hawaii(Rasmussen)

Approve 77%
Disapprove 23%

NC, TN, ND and FL updated as well.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

A bit strange that SC's approval ratings are higher than NC.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

This is the map that goes with Sam's first chart: Blue is tie, Red Disapprove and Green Approve.

I'd say 45% approval is the even out point.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Do you all think if Obama flips Texas to Democrat (the largest surprise we could think of probably), should the Republican Party really reimagine themselves?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Bad tidings for the GOP here, perhaps due to the attention on financial reform?

I think AZ will either get further to the GOP or flip if immigration is tackled next.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Bad tidings for the GOP here, perhaps due to the attention on financial reform?

I think AZ will either get further to the GOP or flip if immigration is tackled next.

Reform of the financial system may be closing the barn door after the horse has left. If the GOP had any sense it would try to co-opt the Democrats on this one rather than line up for campaign funds from lobbyists for crooks of the Double-Zero Decade. 

Well today's vote was certainly an indication that the GOP isn't going to co-opt this one.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Notably, though, when you compare North Dakota to the recent polls in Georgia and Florida, the strength of that approval is much weaker. (That is, many more of North Dakota's approvers only "somewhat" approve.)

But all that really matters is the strongly disapprove...the 51% who strongly disapprove in GA will not vote for him. He at least is in the mid-40's in the Dakotas, but then again the Dakotas aren't the type of states that would get too riled up about a politician.

41% approval (Georgia) and 44% approval (North Dakota) implies a huge difference. Add about 6%  to the approval rating for an incumbent at the start of a campaign and you get a fair idea of how he will do in the general election in a state. The incumbent as a Governor, Senator, or (in a one-Representative state) Representative has plenty of advantages by being able to use the perquisites of office, most significantly the ability to set the agenda that a challenger doesn't have. Some who disapprove will disapprove of the challenger, too, and either won't vote or will vote for a third-party candidate. Adding 6% suggests a likely vote share.

The 41% approval in Georgia probably translates to about 47% of a vote share... which isn't close enough to get the President to make lots of appearances there unless the state is the difference between winning and losing the nationwide election. That is close to how Obama did in Georgia in 2008... and he abandoned the state as an electoral target in favor of others.

Sure, Obama could win Georgia in 2012... if certain things go right. Successful wind-downs of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq might do the trick if such convinces active military people... but that is asking for things that have yet to happen, are not sure to happen, and have no obvious precedent. He could also lose Wisconsin if unemployment skyrockets.

North Dakota showed two polls in two months in which the President has an approval rating of 44%, which translates into about a 50% share of the vote. That is where Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina were in 2008. Such translates into a phrase that causes many people to reach for antacids:

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

The bad news for the GOP: North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964 and hasn't been close to going for the Democratic nominee except in an electoral blowout for a very long time.

The good news for the GOP: North Dakota is unlikely to be the difference in the 2012 election.

Further bad news for the GOP: take a good look at South Dakota.

You really think Obama would have a chance at carrying two states where he is strongly disapproved of by 48% of voters?

... Okay.

But seriously, pbrower, you're cherry-picking polls that are favorable to your candidate.  I've never heard you say "IMPENDING DEMOCRAT DISASTER!" when there's a poll showing Obama below 50% in states like Oregon and Washington.  How about a little consistency?

But you have to account for 3rd parties or not voting which at least 5% of these 48% disapproval will do.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Could we be getting low numbers possibly due to the attention on the oil crisis?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I can't get over Obama being at 47% in Florida. That seems way too high for how he is doing nationally. Florida is usually about 5 points to the right of the nation at the presidential level.

The fact that SD is actually red should worry people more.

Of course, poll data did suggest (Nov 2008) that Florida would go McCain and SD to Obama.

What is the margin of error usually between polls and actual elections?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Hmm, by that map the election would be 08 all over again without Indiana (and possibly Virginia).

Main difference would probably be that there would be tons more battleground states for the opposition to work out of.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

That's about where George W. Bush was in the spring of 2008. He won, if feebly, despite being a weak campaigner.

Freudian slip?

No. Just a plain, simple typo. 2004.

Dubya may have been dreadful, but he still won.

Well there's still controversy to that (with the Ohio factor)

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Arizona Republicans (Rasmussen)

10% Approve
88% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 541 Likely GOP Voters in Arizona was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 17, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link

Damn, that sure won't do the Dems any good in the Southwest.  And to think some were actually hoping that the GOP would lose the seat in November.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum).  What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.

FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.

Which is?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Sam, is there still a real reason this is occurring, or is there now a fake reason?  Please advise.

There's both a real and a fake reason.  Can't figure out why.

Maybe just a proportionate number of Americans shift their views and keep the scales balanced.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.

/facepalm

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I want to make a prediction. Obama's approval will have a high of 53% by the end of this week.

He's gonna have to pull something big out of his ass to get 8 points by the end of the week.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% , -3.

Disapprove 57% , +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Could be a bad sample.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

This is very very bad.  He needs to pull something big off soon in order to recover and still have a chance at keeping control.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Out of all honesty, I think it's time we've had an engineer for president.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Out of all honesty, I think it's time we've had an engineer for president.

We had Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter. Both were good people, but poor Presidents, and one-term for good reason.

Law is for intellectual generalists; engineering is for intellectual specialists.  Generalists are almost always better managers.   

Well true, but both were put into situations where it was near impossible to win their elections.  Hoover, I can say wasn't directly responsible for his predicament.  Carter on the other hand....well, I just wish he had more balls....

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Surprising that Obama's numbers have been pretty stable still.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Well they must be the stereotypical Californians who skate board and do drugs because according to you they're remembering things that aren't real. It might just take a worthless president like Obama to lose CA and WA in 2012.

Dude, seriously, this isn't even a generalization of Californians.  You just described the stereotype for the white male teenager in America.

Back on topic, yeah, the Bay Area liberals have been demoralized.  Berkeley (Telegraph Ave. particularly) has been pretty quiet as of late, with only a few stands and whatnot. 

Though, I have to admit, the place does have a cleaner feel when there's less activists on the streets.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Obama Approval Rating July 2010 (Gallup):

46% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 40/43 (July 1978)

Reagan: 42/47 (July 1982)

Bush I: 62/25 (July 1990)

Clinton: 43/49 (July 1994)

Bush II: 72/22 (July 2002)

All in perspective, it's not all that bad.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

The whole spectrum in this country is starting to get sadder and sadder....if this keeps up, Franzi would be considered an extreme leftist.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Isn't a populist the exact opposite of a libertarian?

No, not in the least.  

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That would be de-alignment and we are getting more partisan.  

You seriously think there will be a realignment towards Republicans when more people disapprove of their job in the congress than the Democrats? It doesn't mean the Democrats don't lose big in 2010, since they are the incumbents. But what it means is that Republican support will be very shallow and the electorate could abandon them for the slightest of reasons.  

The electorate is changing.  Looking at 1980, the people who won were very different that the people who lost in 1976.  It is more than hating the incumbents; they are starting to hate what the incumbents stand for.

If we're going to go by that, then this leads to anarchy...maybe even fascism....

This means all hell breaks lose.  And by extension, the implosion of the two party system.