Senator Gillibrand

[Mr. Morden]

Here's an updated story from the AP:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

And here's the latest from the Politico:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0109/NYPost_Caroline_withdraws.html

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The same blog post says, for whatever it's worth, "News vans were converging on Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand's home, according to an aide."

Meanwhile, Intrade isn't buying that Kennedy is still in it.  She's back down to 7.5

[Purple State]

This is just incredibly interesting. The real question is who originally leaked this information? Was it a Patterson aide? It clearly didn't come from Kennedy's camp.

[Purple State]

This is where the NYT puts us right now. It seems like things are beginning to sort themselves out:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/22/nyregion/22caroline.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1232601303-PguldnlTiMLufaKkJOp2wg

And this notable part:

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So she is still in it now. And looks like she thought it was her choice to make. If she really had been on the verge of the appointment, does this set that back?

[Mr. Morden]

A sign of the confusion:

link

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Meanwhile, Kennedy back up to 17.0 on Intrade, and gaining.  Anyone who bought when she was down to 3.6 could make a killing.

[justfollowingtheelections]

This is as awesome as when Obama/McCain picked their VP candidates!

[Mr. Morden]

OK, now it looks like she's back out again.  She's made a public statement saying that she's out:

link

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Intrade:

Cuomo 61.0
Maloney 24.0
Suozzi 5.0
Kennedy 4.9

[Mr. Morden]

Was this already mentioned here?:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/17790.html

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[Lunar]

WOW EVERYONE'S SOURCES SUCK, ESPECIALLY SOURCES "CLOSE TO THE KENNEDY CAMPAIGN"

It seems the sources that originally broke the story were close to Paterson.  Caroline's entire campaign is JUST AWFUL.  THEY CAN'T EVEN EXIT WITHOUT HAVING FIFTY GAFFES

I don't thing I've ever seen such an inept withdraw, not even Perot's comes close!

[Lunar]

Like, look at the Scorecard:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/

Out, in, out, in, Caroline runs a retarded group of circles, partly responsible for her awful roll-out and her inept campaign attempting to box & barrage Paterson into a choice, but really just annoying him.  Like, when Bloomberg publicly told Paterson that he should pick someone really quickly because of all of the media intensity, Paterson was visibly annoyed because Bloomberg's aides were causing all of the media intensity by guiding CK's campaign and having Caroline do interview after interview and dance in front of the paparazzi the entire time, all the while calling official after official telling them that it's a "done deal so you might as well get onboard now."

[Lunar]

Here's a story to jog our memories how awful this was from politickerny (before she finally quit for good):

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[justfollowingtheelections]

Paterson has balls.

[Lunar]

Paterson has balls.

Not exactly a surprise.  He doesn't have the best instincts, but he has an independent streak.

Also, even for someone who was completely subservient to his political advisers, Caroline just wasn't the best choice after she bungled all of those media interviews and wouldn't release her personal finances and was no longer the public favorite.

[minionofmidas]

Looks like WalterMitty was incorrect with his prediction of Democratic Presidential Contender Caroline Kennedy, 2016

The sun also rose again this morning.

Really? I hadn't noticed.


Must be the thick cloud cover.

[Purple State]

Ok, she has released a statement officially dropping out. Happy days are here again.

I doubt Cuomo will get the appointment now. Anyone Paterson chooses will be qualified and there won't be a question about dynasty vs. experience. Gillibrand is the most likely option followed by Maloney and Suozzi. I am leaning towards Maloney I think for the economic experience.

[Lunar]

Those are all good fundraisers and the most likely picks I agree.  I think the biggest wildcards (beyond Cuomo) could be Byron Brown and Randi Weingarten. 

Maloney is the most solid choice that will probably give Paterson the most momentum.  Cuomo might offend the Kennedy's and stick an unwelcome passenger into the AG slot.  Gillibrand is a bit of an unknown.  Kennedy could run for Maloney's seat in the Upper West Side and be happy, although that botched withdrawal won't help her chances.

[Purple State]

Those are all good fundraisers and the most likely picks I agree.  I think the biggest wildcards (beyond Cuomo) could be Byron Brown and Randi Weingarten. 

Maloney is the most solid choice that will probably give Paterson the most momentum.  Cuomo might offend the Kennedy's and stick an unwelcome passenger into the AG slot.  Gillibrand is a bit of an unknown.  Kennedy could run for Maloney's seat in the Upper West Side and be happy, although that botched withdrawal won't help her chances.

Do you think Caroline wants something in government that badly? She has spent her whole life avoiding it. Likelihood, I think, is that she will drift back to fundraisers, endorsements, and relatively inconsequential roles in politics.

[Lunar]

It will be a tempting proposition for her and could be seen as Paterson offering Obama and the Kennedy family as an olive branch even if she doesn't take it. 

[Lunar]

Remember that I still voted "Gillibrand" in this poll initially


via Politico Scorecard:

[quote]NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell reported this morning that Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has emerged as the frontrunner for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat after Caroline Kennedy dropped out of contention last night.

Mitchell reported that Paterson had a conversation with Gillibrand Wednesday morning, and that the New York governor has her on his short list of contenders for the seat.

Gillibrand, a second-term congresswoman from upstate New York, has a resume that would please the Clintons. She served as a special counsel for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (under Andrew Cuomo!) in former President Clinton’s administration, and helped raise money for Hillary Clinton’s Senate campaigns in New York.

One of Gillibrand’s top political advisers in her first election was former Clinton strategist Howard Wolfson.

Gillibrand would be a savvy political choice, as well. She has twice won election in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in New York, handily defeating her GOP opponent with 62 percent of the vote last year. She has assiduously courted the local officials in her district, almost all of whom are Republican.

She has a voting record that matches the moderate nature of her district. A member of the conservative Democratic Blue Dog Coalition, Gillibrand recently drew fire from a gun control group for her support of gun ownership rights.

But if Paterson appointed Gillibrand, Democrats would risk losing the seat in a special election. The Democratic bench is not deep in the district, and a vacancy would provide Republicans with an early test of their competitiveness in the Obama era.

[Lunar]

The pick should occur tomorrow due to the Sabbath I hear.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/22/nyregion/22caroline.html?_r=2&hp

also, unnamed family members said the same thing.




A bit spoiled growing up you think?

[Eraserhead]

I have a strong feeling about Gillibrand. I really do. (Insert obscene joke here)

[Lunar]

In a sign of how fluid and unpredictable the New York State Senate scrum still is, consider this:

Gov. Paterson's aides told American Federation of Teachers chief Randi Weingarten, a dark horse, that she was still under consideration yesterday, according to a New York Democrat with direct knowledge of the situation.

The top post-Caroline contenders d'jour are upstate Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand and, suddenly, Suffolk County exec Tom Suozzi, who had more seriously rumored to be in the running for Lieutenant Governor.

But nobody's told Steve Israel, Carolyn Maloney or Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown that they're out of the running, according to operatives.

The one thing that seems clear at the moment is this: If announcement is made it will likely take place on Friday, before sundown, to accommodate Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, a religious Jew.

Actually, nothing is clear.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0109/Randis_still_in_it.html?showall

[Eraserhead]

Haha. Love it.

[Eraserhead]

Haha. Love it.

What, me?

Nah, just the insanity. No offense.

[Lunar]

http://www.politickerny.com/1588/source-paterson-gave-chance-take-back-kennedy-advisers-know-thing#comment

Caroline Kennedy's decision to call Governor David Paterson and withdraw her name from consideration for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat took her closest confidants and advisers completely by surprise, according to two sources with knowledge of last night's events leading up to and following Kennedy's withdrawal.

Until as late as yesterday afternoon, the sources said, they felt confident that all was well and that she was going to be picked.

"All the indications were very positive," said one source.

According to the source, Kennedy called the governor between 2 and 3 p.m. -- without telling her advisers.

"He was very understanding about it," said the source. "He said, ‘Take 24 hours and think about it,' and then by the end of the day, in the night, it became clear that she did not need 24 hours to think about it."

Within hours, news of the phone call had leaked and advisers and people close to Kennedy began getting calls from reporters looking for comment. Almost all of those people were in the dark about what had happened.

At around 6 p.m., the New York Post posted the story that Kennedy had called Paterson. But they said she did so only after the governor made it clear that she was not his choice to take Hillary Clinton's senate seat. According to the source, that version of events is incorrect. 

Until the rumors started swirling, said the source, "we had every indication things were fine."

The Times quickly followed with its own story reporting that Caroline had dropped out because she was concerned about the deteriorating health of her uncle Teddy Kennedy.

The source said that this explanation came as news to virtually everyone in the Kennedy camp.

"Unequivocally this was not about Teddy," said another source, a Kennedy aide. "This was about a different personal situation that came about at one o'clock."

When asked what the personal reason was, the aide said, "I don't know."

Associates and friends "couldn't get in touch with her," said the first source, and "assumed she was dealing with a personal matter."

Sometime after 8 p.m., Kennedy's consultants, Knickerbocker SKD, succeeded in making contact with her. After several discussions and conference calls discussing what was at that point a long-shot possibility of repairing the damage done by Kennedy's call to Paterson and continuing with the campaign, a decision was made.

"It was time to put out a statement that it was time to withdraw," said the first source. 

 That statement arrived in the inboxes of reporters at 12:06 a.m.

 "There were a lot of conversations going on," the source said.

"She had to call the governor between 10 and 11," said the aide. "She thanked him for the extra time to think about it and she said she thought about it. But given the enormous responsibility weight that comes with being a U.S. Senator and given this personal problem, she asked for her name to be taken out of contention."