Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Eraserhead]

The NRA is basically a partisan Republican organization at this point, so that's not really surprising.

The NRA endorsed Deeds in 2005. Is Deeds a Republican? No...

Is 2005 the same as 2009?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clarus Research Group:

McDonnell: 42%
Deeds: 37%

10-14 September 2009, 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_mcdonnell_42_deeds_37_claru.php

I don't really know what to say; I can't find the sub-numbers, so I don't know the breakdown, and 21% undecided is a bit surprising.  I'll call it an outlier, maybe 48-42 McDonnell at this point, give or take.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Clarus Research Group:

McDonnell: 42%
Deeds: 37%

10-14 September 2009, 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_mcdonnell_42_deeds_37_claru.php

I don't really know what to say; I can't find the sub-numbers, so I don't know the breakdown, and 21% undecided is a bit surprising.  I'll call it an outlier, maybe 48-42 McDonnell at this point, give or take.

Several points.

First, Clarus is NOT one of the better polling outfits (watch what Mason-Dixon says).

Second, its Registered NOT Likely voters. 

So, in conclusion, don't give it too much weight.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Posted: Thursday, September 17, 2009 2:28 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2009
From NBC's Mark Murray

McLEAN, Va. -- In today's debate here, moderator David Gregory also asked Democrat Creigh Deeds about whether race was behind some of the protests and opposition aimed at President Obama.

Deeds answered in the affirmative, saying that there is a "hint of racism that is crystal clear."

[Meeker]

Posted: Thursday, September 17, 2009 2:28 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2009
From NBC's Mark Murray

McLEAN, Va. -- In today's debate here, moderator David Gregory also asked Democrat Creigh Deeds about whether race was behind some of the protests and opposition aimed at President Obama.

Deeds answered in the affirmative, saying that there is a "hint of racism that is crystal clear."

Drive up that black turnout...

[CARLHAYDEN]

By Jim Nolan
Richmond Times-Dispatch
Published: August 12, 2009

Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds today said that if the General Assembly passed a bill to fund the state’s transportation needs that included an increase in taxes, he would sign it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

God forbid we should actually fund transportation for once...

[cinyc]

Posted: Thursday, September 17, 2009 2:28 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2009
From NBC's Mark Murray

McLEAN, Va. -- In today's debate here, moderator David Gregory also asked Democrat Creigh Deeds about whether race was behind some of the protests and opposition aimed at President Obama.

Deeds answered in the affirmative, saying that there is a "hint of racism that is crystal clear."

Drive up that black turnout...

Depress that supportive white turnout...  or make them vote for the other guy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've updated my House of Delegates forecast:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/5608/virginia-house-of-delegates-targets-midseptember-edition

[Tender Branson]

Washington Post:

McDonnell: 51%
Deeds: 47%

"In Northern Virginia, where statewide Democrats have been successful but Deeds was slow to win support, he now leads McDonnell, 57 to 40 percent, among likely voters. In the innermost Washington suburbs, Deeds leads 63 to 34 percent. A month ago, the two men were running about even in Northern Virginia."

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as governor?

59% Approve
38% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

53% Approve
47% Disapprove

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone September 14-17, 2009, among a random sample of 1,003 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Virginia including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Sample:

32% DEM
29% REP
34% IND
5% Others

39% IND/Others (19% REP, 12% DEM, 8% No Lean)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/19/AR2009091902552.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nice try, WaPo, but Kaine doesn't have an approval that high.

[Rowan]

Nice try, WaPo, but Kaine doesn't have an approval that high.

Or Obama for that matter among 2009 Likely Voters.

[Eraserhead]

It definitely seems like the race is at least somewhat competitive again, which is a good thing.  We don't want to lose in a landslide or anything here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

At least one person was predicting a George Allen-type blowout back when McDonnell was leading by 15 percent, and that's just ridiculous, because the Virginia of 1993 is completely different from the Virginia of 2009. McDonnell was never going to win that kind of margin, because no serious statewide candidate of either party these days is going to get below 45% or so of the vote. The ones this decade who have, Gilmore in 2008 and McEachin in 2001, were both joke candidates.

So, as I've said before, the ceiling for McDonnell is about 54-55% of the vote. Of course, his floor is probably around 48-49% at this point. If Deeds pulls off a win, it will be by the skin of his teeth.

Steve Shannon might lose by more than 10 percent, but his campaign has just been that bad. He might be able to mitigate his loss with a lot of media spending in the last couple weeks, since he's got a 2-1 cash advantage over Cuccinelli, but I don't see how he could come close at this point.

Jody Wagner may actually be the one to watch, which would have been unbelievable six months ago. Bolling's numbers are incredibly soft for an incumbent (though he's got a lot more money, essentially nobody knows who he is), and Wagner seems to be doing a little better than Deeds in the polls. Bolling will probably squeak by on McDonnell's coattails, but I think he will do the worst of all the statewide Republicans this year.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

McDonnell can fall a lot more than Deeds, I think.  Deeds' areas of strength are the most populous areas in Virginia (NOVA, Henrico, etc.).  McDonnell, by contrast, will do the best in the less populated areas in the Southwest.  In 2005, only one of McDonnell's top 30 counties had more than 50,000 voters; Chesterfield was his 30th best performance, and it had 88,000.  Deeds, by contrast, had 2 in his top 10 (Arlington and Richmond), with Fairfax at number 25.  Deeds' top areas have gotten more Democratic, while the opposite has occurred for McDonnell (Chesterfield swung 18% to Obama in 2008).

It would be much easier for Deeds to rack up votes than it will be for McDonnell - 65% in Fairfax goes a lot farther than 65% in Virginia Beach, which had only 96,000 voters in 2005, and which McDonnell won by 14.23%, and which has gotten more Democratic, compared to Deeds' 15.50% in Fairfax, which had 267,000 voters in 2005, and has also gotten more Democratic.

I don't think either candidate will break 51%, but if either one does, it will most likely be Deeds.

[ajc0918]

McDonnell can fall a lot more than Deeds, I think.  Deeds' areas of strength are the most populous areas in Virginia (NOVA, Henrico, etc.).  McDonnell, by contrast, will do the best in the less populated areas in the Southwest.  In 2005, only one of McDonnell's top 30 counties had more than 50,000 voters; Chesterfield was his 30th best performance, and it had 88,000.  Deeds, by contrast, had 2 in his top 10 (Arlington and Richmond), with Fairfax at number 25.  Deeds' top areas have gotten more Democratic, while the opposite has occurred for McDonnell (Chesterfield swung 18% to Obama in 2008).

It would be much easier for Deeds to rack up votes than it will be for McDonnell - 65% in Fairfax goes a lot farther than 65% in Virginia Beach, which had only 96,000 voters in 2005, and which McDonnell won by 14.23%, and which has gotten more Democratic, compared to Deeds' 15.50% in Fairfax, which had 267,000 voters in 2005, and has also gotten more Democratic.

I don't think either candidate will break 51%, but if either one does, it will most likely be Deeds.

I thought Deeds was the rural candidate and McDonnell was the urban and suburban candidate. Maybe I'm wrong. And wasn't McDonnell was leading deeds by a good margin in the NOVA suburbs?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds has a greater appeal to rural Virginia than the average Democrat, but that doesn't at all detract from him in NOVA.  McDonnell has tried to paint himself as the suburban candidate (NOVA's own Bob McDonnell signs, for example), but his ideology is simply at odds with the Region, and now that people are paying attention to the race, it's showing.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In 2005, McDonnell won the suburban counties of Loudoun, Prince William, and Henrico, but only by a few percent each. Deeds won Fairfax County 58-42. Deeds also won all the cities in Hampton Roads except for Virginia Beach and Chesapeake. I really think McDonnell's suburban credentials are overblown.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In 2005, McDonnell won the suburban counties of Loudoun, Prince William, and Henrico, but only by a few percent each. Deeds won Fairfax County 58-42. Deeds also won all the cities in Hampton Roads except for Virginia Beach and Chesapeake. I really think McDonnell's suburban credentials are overblown.

Not to mention the fact that all those areas have swung Democratic in the intervening 4 years.

[Stampever]

God forbid we should actually fund transportation for once...

Didn't VA have two consecutive Democratic governors, one who increased taxes unnecessarily that resulted in millions of excessive funds?  I think the residents of Virginia might find it hard to believe that a third Democratic governor would be any different, especially since he's campaigned on their reputation.

[fezzyfestoon]

Excess funds, what a crock!  Virginia should be more like California and cut taxes when it has the biggest deficit in the country.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

God forbid we should actually fund transportation for once...

Didn't VA have two consecutive Democratic governors, one who increased taxes unnecessarily that resulted in millions of excessive funds?  I think the residents of Virginia might find it hard to believe that a third Democratic governor would be any different, especially since he's campaigned on their reputation.

No, Mark Warner raised taxes to patch the gaping holes in the budget left by Jim "No Car Tax" Gilmore.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Here's what one of the former Democrat Governor's has to say about Deeds:

http://virginiatomorrow.com/2009/09/24/l-douglas-wilder-statement-on-the-2009-governors-race/

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Douglas Wilder is an attention whoring idiot.

[Rowan]

Douglas Wilder is an attention whoring idiot.

But if he endorsed Deeds he would have been brilliant I bet.