Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Lunar]

Douglas Wilder is an attention whoring idiot.

But if he endorsed Deeds he would have been brilliant I bet.

all he says is he disagrees with Deeds' willingness to raise taxes for transportation improvements, and guns, and it's not like Wilder is some super leftist.

there's no need for a has-been governor to try and make the news over his non-endorsement of anyone unless he's attention whoring (I doubt he's an idiot).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Douglas Wilder is an attention whoring idiot.

But if he endorsed Deeds he would have been brilliant I bet.

No, because then he would've been a former Democratic Governor endorsing the Democratic nominee.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Douglas Wilder is an attention whoring idiot.

But if he endorsed Deeds he would have been brilliant I bet.

No, Wilder is a has-been who wants to be in the spotlight as much as possible. Why else would he run for Mayor of Richmond a decade after leaving the governor's mansion?

[Tender Branson]

New InsiderAdvantage poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 44%

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27543.html

[Tender Branson]

New PPP poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_929717.pdf

And Sen. Mark Warner with a spot for Deeds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qm42PeCJ4o

Former Gov. Linwood Holton (R) also endorsed Deeds.

[YankeeFan007]

New PPP poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_929717.pdf

And Sen. Mark Warner with a spot for Deeds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qm42PeCJ4o

Former Gov. Linwood Holton (R) also endorsed Deeds.

Deed is doing really well in Virginia.  He has gained in every single poll that's come out.  He was out of striking distance about a month ago and now he is within range.  I think he could definately win this one if he gets some high turnouts in favorable areas.  Of coure Mcdonnel would have to also lose some suburban counties. 

[Umengus]

Party ID:

D: 37 %
R: 29 %
other: 34 %

what a joke... who thinks that it will be the party id of the election day ? it's manipulation to make good story for medias.

If with a D+8 sample deeds is behind, he is in very bad position.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So all the other polls that show a similar margin are wrong too, I guess.

[ajc0918]

Party ID:

D: 37 %
R: 29 %
other: 34 %

what a joke... who thinks that it will be the party id of the election day ? it's manipulation to make good story for medias.

If with a D+8 sample deeds is behind, he is in very bad position.

McDonnell leading by 5 with D+8 would make McDonnell leading by at least 10. We all know Republican turnout is higher in off years.

[CARLHAYDEN]

New PPP poll:

McDonnell: 48%
Deeds: 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_929717.pdf

And Sen. Mark Warner with a spot for Deeds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qm42PeCJ4o

Former Gov. Linwood Holton (R) also endorsed Deeds.

Deed is doing really well in Virginia.  He has gained in every single poll that's come out.  He was out of striking distance about a month ago and now he is within range.  I think he could definately win this one if he gets some high turnouts in favorable areas.  Of coure Mcdonnel would have to also lose some suburban counties. 

First, welcome to the forum.

Second, no, Deeds has NOT gained in every single poll that's come out.   Here's a recent one from SUSA:

In the race for Governor, Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds by 14 points, 55% to 41%. Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released four and nine weeks ago, little has changed. McDonnell receives majorities from both men and women, young and old, rich and poor, college graduates and those who did not attend college. Deeds leads by 3:1 among African Americans, by 7:1 among Democrats and liberals, and by 14 points among moderates. McDonnell and Deeds tie in Northeastern Virginia; McDonnell leads in the rest of the state.

Third, given your moniker, are you aware that several weeks ago Deeds came out for choice, well, at least with regards to abortion?

[YankeeFan007]

That poll came out yesterday afternoon.  I made my comments yesterday morning before the poll came out.  At that time every poll that was in the highlighted section on real clear politics (Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, RK2000, etc) showed gains for Deeds.  Right now I don't put much weight in the new poll, but I will have to if others come out with the same results. 

Don't all Democrats usually come out for 'choice?'

[CARLHAYDEN]

That poll came out yesterday afternoon.  I made my comments yesterday morning before the poll came out.  At that time every poll that was in the highlighted section on real clear politics (Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, RK2000, etc) showed gains for Deeds.  Right now I don't put much weight in the new poll, but I will have to if others come out with the same results. 

Don't all Democrats usually come out for 'choice?'

First, Rasmussen is a very good survey research firm, whereas Quinnipiac is a mediocre pollster and  R2K is a lousy pollster.

Second,  timing is very important.  The latter poll I cited had time for the public to react to Deeds equivocation on increasing taxes.

Third, no, most Democrat candidates are opposed to choice, except for abortion. 

Fourth, so are you saying you will support any candidate nominated on the Democrat party line irrespective of his/her position on abortion?

[Eraserhead]

Quinnipiac is a good firm. Stop spinning.

[Umengus]

The party id of the susa poll:

R: 37 %
D: 32 %
I: 29 %

My opinion is that the race is pretty stable for one month. The changes are due to pollsters...

McDonnell can not lose if he wins the independent vote by great margin and all polls say that it's the case for now.

[YankeeFan007]

First, Rasmussen is a very good survey research firm, whereas Quinnipiac is a mediocre pollster and  R2K is a lousy pollster.

Second,  timing is very important.  The latter poll I cited had time for the public to react to Deeds equivocation on increasing taxes.

Third, no, most Democrat candidates are opposed to choice, except for abortion. 

Fourth, so are you saying you will support any candidate nominated on the Democrat party line irrespective of his/her position on abortion?
[/quote]


Your full of it.   Republicans only think Rasmussen is good because they show more positive results than other polls.   That's why Don Rasmussen gets air time on Fox.  They are no better than any other polling station.  Actually I"ve seen CNN do better than them on some elections. 

Okay, now that that is out of the way.  RAsmussen just came out with a poll showing Mcdonnel up by 9 so I don't think Survey USA is too much of an outlier. 

I think Demcorats are for for choice and the REpublicans are against choice. 

I don't vote on abortion.  ACctually I"m on the fence when it comes to that issue.  By the way, if Republicans support choice, why are they against a big government law like the DEfense of Marriage Act, which takes away the choice of gay Americans to get married and why are they against gays joing the military?  Doesn't sould like they are the party of choice.

[Umengus]

First, Rasmussen is a very good survey research firm, whereas Quinnipiac is a mediocre pollster and  R2K is a lousy pollster.

Second,  timing is very important.  The latter poll I cited had time for the public to react to Deeds equivocation on increasing taxes.

Third, no, most Democrat candidates are opposed to choice, except for abortion. 

Fourth, so are you saying you will support any candidate nominated on the Democrat party line irrespective of his/her position on abortion?

Your full of it.   Republicans only think Rasmussen is good because they show more positive results than other polls.   That's why Don Rasmussen gets air time on Fox.  They are no better than any other polling station.  Actually I"ve seen CNN do better than them on some elections. 

Okay, now that that is out of the way.  RAsmussen just came out with a poll showing Mcdonnel up by 9 so I don't think Survey USA is too much of an outlier. 

I think Demcorats are for for choice and the REpublicans are against choice. 

I don't vote on abortion.  ACctually I"m on the fence when it comes to that issue.  By the way, if Republicans support choice, why are they against a big government law like the DEfense of Marriage Act, which takes away the choice of gay Americans to get married and why are they against gays joing the military?  Doesn't sould like they are the party of choice.
[/quote]

Historic proves that Rasmussen is a top pollster: cfr 2004 and 2008 (at national level). Even top pollster can make mistakes.

[YankeeFan007]

My mistake.  You right.  Rasmussen is the second most accurate.  PEW whips everybodies ass.  However, on Election day, CNN got the best final results.

[Alexander Hamilton]

My mistake.  You right.  Rasmussen is the second most accurate.  PEW whips everybodies ass.  However, on Election day, CNN got the best final results.

By luck

[CARLHAYDEN]

Umengus,

First, Rasmussen has a proven track record.

Second, CNN retains ORC to do polls for it (it does not do its own surveys).  Admission: I worked for ORC many years ago.

Third, I adressed my point about abortion to another poster whose moniker implied he was for life but supported Deeds.

Dem4Life

PEW commissions Princeton Associates to do its polls.  Not suprisingly, many of the people at Princeton Associates are former ORC employees.

To both of you,

The key Virginia poll (other than the actual election) to watch is Mason-Dixon.

[Umengus]

Umengus,

First, Rasmussen has a proven track record.

Second, CNN retains ORC to do polls for it (it does not do its own surveys).  Admission: I worked for ORC many years ago.

Third, I adressed my point about abortion to another poster whose moniker implied he was for life but supported Deeds.

Dem4Life

PEW commissions Princeton Associates to do its polls.  Not suprisingly, many of the people at Princeton Associates are former ORC employees.

To both of you,

The key Virginia poll (other than the actual election) to watch is Mason-Dixon.

I'm completely agree with you. Due to a technical mistake, only the last sentence of my post was made by me.

Ironically, the rasmussen poll with mcdonnell +2 was probably a outlier, considering the last ras poll.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Umengus,

First, the prior Rasmussen survey you cited, which indicated a slight lead for McDonnell was probably an outlier.

Second, given the margin of error, the McDonnell lead could well have been five or more.

Third, remember that one time out of twenty the MoE will be exceeded.

Fourth, before Deeds put his foot in his mouth about taxes, there is some reason to believe that he was reducing McDonnell's lead.

Fifth, there is still more than a month until the election and unforseen events could significantly impact the race.

Finally, absent such unforseen events significantly helping Deeds, McDonnel is a likely winner.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd say the most telling thing right now is that McDonnell has dumped the pretense of running a positive campaign and is going 100% on Generic Republican Attack Mode: "THE DEMOCRATS WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES!!!11". If he were really up by 14 like SUSA says, he wouldn't need to be doing that.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I'd say the most telling thing right now is that McDonnell has dumped the pretense of running a positive campaign and is going 100% on Generic Republican Attack Mode: "THE DEMOCRATS WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES!!!11". If he were really up by 14 like SUSA says, he wouldn't need to be doing that.

Deeds did a Mondale by admitting that he wants increased taxes.

[Umengus]

I'd say the most telling thing right now is that McDonnell has dumped the pretense of running a positive campaign and is going 100% on Generic Republican Attack Mode: "THE DEMOCRATS WILL RAISE YOUR TAXES!!!11". If he were really up by 14 like SUSA says, he wouldn't need to be doing that.

and deeds is doing a positive campaign... who has begun to be negative ?

and Mcdonnell is true: deeds wants to increase taxes and it's the good strategy to make: voters must know that.

[Umengus]

Umengus,

First, the prior Rasmussen survey you cited, which indicated a slight lead for McDonnell was probably an outlier.

Second, given the margin of error, the McDonnell lead could well have been five or more.

Third, remember that one time out of twenty the MoE will be exceeded.

Fourth, before Deeds put his foot in his mouth about taxes, there is some reason to believe that he was reducing McDonnell's lead.

Fifth, there is still more than a month until the election and unforseen events could significantly impact the race.

Finally, absent such unforseen events significantly helping Deeds, McDonnel is a likely winner.

the notion of the margin of error doesn't existe when polls are reweighted.

It would be interessant to reweighting all polls with a gop +2 advantage. And I think that the result will be always +- the same.