2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[fezzyfestoon]

That's the problem, no one knows and Christie's not talking.  There are no specifics, just the not Corzine effect and cleanliness.

Just out of curiosity, have you ever looked at the issues section of Christie's website?

Actually, I hadn't since the primaries.  Good thing you brought that up, because I'm much more impressed with what he's suggesting now than I was back then.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's the problem, no one knows and Christie's not talking.  There are no specifics, just the not Corzine effect and cleanliness.

Just out of curiosity, have you ever looked at the issues section of Christie's website?

Actually, I hadn't since the primaries.  Good thing you brought that up, because I'm much more impressed with what he's suggesting now than I was back then.

Probably since he scrubbed the right-wing sections of his website after winning the primary...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Probably since he scrubbed the right-wing sections of his website after winning the primary...

Those "scrubbed" sections, specifically the "Shared Values" part in which Christie calls himself pro-life (gasp!), has been back on the site and available for viewing for at least a month now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PolitickerNJ just put out their yearly "Battleground 2009" list.

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/29004/politickernjcoms-battleground-2009

The short version: Politicker thinks Republicans pick up two Assembly seats (both in LD 1), which is their top-tier race. Second-tier is LD36, which is rated "lean Democratic." A full eight seats are "likely Democratic, including LD4, 19, 22, and 38. Thirty-six Democratic seats are rated "safe."

Both senate seats are "safe," Republicans will win SD23; Democrats SD5. No surprises there.

No GOP held Assembly seat is rated worse than "likely Republican." Twenty-two Republican seats are "safe."

Republicans are favored to win back control of the Monmouth County Freeholder Board, which Democrats now hold by a 3D–2R margin.
Control of the Freeholder board in Atlantic (currently 6R, 3D) is a toss-up.
Democrats are favored to hold control of the board in Salem.
Three of 7 seats could go to the Republicans in Cumberland—that race is "toss-up" as well. Democrats are favored to hold their 2 vulnerable seats in Bergen (lean Democratic).

Republicans are slight favorites to hold the Cumberland County Clerk office, the only competitive non-freeholder county-wide race in the state.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, and PolitickerNJ rates the Governor's race a toss-up.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Bergen Republicans are finally winning the freeholders seats, I disagree heavily with "leans Democrat".  However, I sitll insist that LD36 is not competitive and only was due to Hipp's 70%+ in 2007 coupled with big wins by Cassella and crew, Roseman, and a few others

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I already posted it in the polls section, but it's worth noting here too: today's Rasmussen has Christie up by 11; up 8 (and at the 50% mark) with leaners. His negatives are way up, though.

[Brittain33]

His negatives are way up, though.

His negatives have finally surpassed his positives. For a NJ politician, that's like having your bar mitzvah. "Today, I am a man."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This Christie press release is kinda cute:

BREAKING NEWS: Christie Spotted Taking a Penny, Not Leaving a Penny

This morning, Chris Christie stopped for a bottle of water at his local convenience store.  At the cash register, Christie nabbed a penny from the penny tray to cover his $1.36 tab, but did not put a penny back.  The Corzine campaign bought their 16th ad space on PolitickerNJ.com to launch a new attack ad asking, “If he’ll take your change, what else of yours is really safe?”

Stay tuned for additional Breaking News Alerts, either straight from the source or from the latest absurd Corzine campaign attack.

To add your own breaking news headlines, #notnews on Twitter.

[DownWithTheLeft]

LOL, that was also funny and coupled with:

Christie Borrowed Lunch Money in Third Grade

as well as a few others

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also noteworthy today: Christie returned with a broadcast TV ad, his first since the primary.

The 30-second spot, titled “Voices,” features residents griping about the state’s taxes, lack of ethics reform, and calling Governor Corzine “out of touch” and a “failure.”   Towards the end of the ad, the residents say they voted for President Obama last year but plan to vote for Christie this year.  —PolitickerNJ

In contrast, Corzine has spent over $5,400,000 on TV ads since the June primary.

[Eraserhead]

Obama for Christie? WOOT!

[War on Want]

It is time for Obama to get more involved in this race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Uber-partisan GQR (aka Democracy Corps) has Christie ahead 43–41, with Daggett getting 7.

http://www.gqrr.com/articles/2383/5448_NJ%20Statewide%20FQ2%20082609.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Uber-partisan GQR (aka Democracy Corps) has Christie ahead 43–41, with Daggett getting 7.

http://www.gqrr.com/articles/2383/5448_NJ%20Statewide%20FQ2%20082609.pdf

But their results were not really off in the 2008 election:

President: Obama+7 (Obama won by 7)

Georgia: McCain 48-45 (McCain won by 52-47)

CA-50: The Republican by 44-42-5 (The Republican by 50-45-5)

[cinyc]

What matters more in polling this far out from the election is trends, rather than the bottom-line numbers.   After all, the election isn't going to be held tomorrow.   The bottom line numbers sometimes differ from pollster to pollster, but the trends are often the same.   The two recent polls are meaningless to me since, best I can tell, there's no baseline of prior polls by the same pollsters to compare them against.  One can't say the race is tightening because 2 partisan polls differ from Rasmussen and the other polls (though it very well may be tightening).

Edit:  Looking at the charts, Democracy Corps did conduct a mid-August poll, and, assuming they used the same pollster, Christie's lead fell from +5 to +2.  Rasmussen also showed a 5 point drop in Christie's lead from early August (+13 to +8).  I think we can conclude the race is tightening.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

In the boy-is-he-an-embarassment-but-he-will-probably-win-anyway file: Assemblyman Chiappone, a Hudson Democrat now under indictment from the summer's earlier rash of corruption busts, is refusing to resign or step down as a candidate for re-election. Chiappone is working without pay or committee assignments—both were stripped from him.

Chiappone has been feeling pressure from both Gov. Corzine and Assembly Speaker Roberts to resign, but continues to maintain his innocence.

His 2007 running mate isn't applying much pressure, because he's not in a position to—fellow District 31 Assemblyman L. Harvey Smith is also under indictment.

[Psychic Octopus]

Corzine is now favored to win on Intrade. (Like that means much, though )

[pogo stick]

My Prediction

Corzine (D) : 52%
Christie (R) : 37%
Dagget (I) : 11%

I doubt a Republican will EVER win in New Jersey again.

I'm sorry, I tried to be optimistic, but it's happened many times where a GOP Nominee leads by a few or trails by a few then gets crushed on election day.

[Rowan]

My Prediction

Corzine (D) : 52%
Christie (R) : 37%
Dagget (I) : 11%

I doubt a Republican will EVER win in New Jersey again.

I'm sorry, I tried to be optimistic, but it's happened many times where a GOP Nominee leads by a few or trails by a few then gets crushed on election day.

You are truly a moron.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Christie will fail >13% of what the lowest poll numbers have him at.  Just to let you know that has never happened in New Jersey.  The only thing that usually happens is Republicans that get near 43-44% and lead in polls never break above 45%.  Christie is already heavily above 50%

[Mart]

I doubt a Republican will EVER win in New Jersey again.

Oh, come on...things have been bad for them, and right now Christie is the last best hope for them for a while.  If he doesn't win, I could see the state GOP losing confidence and morale for a long time to come; but they'll be back, if the right candidate were to emerge.  And even though I reluctantly support Corzine in this race, I think Christie will turn some heads on election day.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My Prediction

Corzine (D) : 52%
Christie (R) : 37%
Dagget (I) : 11%

I doubt a Republican will EVER win in New Jersey again.

I'm sorry, I tried to be optimistic, but it's happened many times where a GOP Nominee leads by a few or trails by a few then gets crushed on election day.

ok thx

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac has a new poll out tomorrow.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'll predict it has Christie +6.