2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

Cape May is a Republican county. Bush and McCain both won Cape May so that is Christie Country anyway. Atlantic usually follows the statewide result(Obama won by 15 statewide and won Atlantic by 15), so that will go for Christie.

[Verily]

Union County is uber-polarized; it wouldn't vote for Christie if he won by 15. Same goes for Passaic County.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Union County is uber-polarized; it wouldn't vote for Christie if he won by 15. Same goes for Passaic County.

I don't know how Christie loses Passaic or Union if he wins by 15 statewide. I don't think Democrats are going to put a heck of a lot of effort into either county on behalf of Corzine if he's going to be a clear loser.

Which means we could have some interesting upsets in other races.  For instance, I think people like Greenstein will hold on while Christie romps in her district, but Linda Stender could wind up getting defeated. (I pick her out in particular, because she's got some serious weaknesses and the GOP opponent there is halfway decent.)  How serious are these "safe" Dems going to take turnout?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'm getting the feeling Sarlo is done, which would absolutley make my day

[Zarn]

Odds are in favor of Burlington voting for a winning Christie. Towns like mine, which voted for Obama, would vote for Christie. They hate Corzine, in this area.

[Ronnie]

Any chance Christie breaks 60 in Bergen?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Any chance Christie breaks 60 in Bergen?

No, not really a chance.  Although I could easily see Bergen Republicans finally winning some freeholder seats and picking up the senate seat and both GA seats in LD36.

Q: Does anyone know who is running against Sarlo?  I can't seem to find it, I know Pio Costa and Diorio are running for assembly but I have no idea who is running for senate

[Ronnie]

This is a 53-45 Christie win...



I made Cumberland and Middlesex >40  because I have no idea how those counties would go in a 53-45 scenario...

[DownWithTheLeft]

Based on what?  I think Passaic would go Christie under this scenario

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What about the independent dude with a million on hand? Won't he soak up some votes?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Any chance Christie breaks 60 in Bergen?

No, not really a chance.  Although I could easily see Bergen Republicans finally winning some freeholder seats and picking up the senate seat and both GA seats in LD36.

Q: Does anyone know who is running against Sarlo?  I can't seem to find it, I know Pio Costa and Diorio are running for assembly but I have no idea who is running for senate

Isn't the state senate not up until 2011?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Any chance Christie breaks 60 in Bergen?

No.

Isn't the state senate not up until 2011?

Correct. There are no State Senate seats up for grabs in 2009.

[Ronnie]

Based on what?  I think Passaic would go Christie under this scenario

Verily says that it is too polarized to switch...

[DownWithTheLeft]

Based on what?  I think Passaic would go Christie under this scenario

Verily says that it is too polarized to switch...

I tend to agree there isn't a lot of sway, but I also think that more conservatives areas like Wayne and surroundings will have higher turnout than Passaic/Clifton areas

[Verily]

What about the independent dude with a million on hand? Won't he soak up some votes?

Definitely at least 5%, possibly as much as 15-20% in the end. As the polls have suggested, he's a bit of a danger to Christie, not because he's drawing on the core Republican vote but because he's drawing the anti-establishment protest vote (the sort who won't be convinced by anyone to support Corzine, but aren't at all loyal to the Republicans) away from Christie. Daggett's campaign has at least the potential to really take off since the anger is there, but I don't think it will to the point of him being a serious contender to win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't think Daggett hurts Christie much.  I think the typical Daggett voter voted for Corzine four years ago, and would have gone for Christie in a two-way matchup but instead picks the third.  I don't think he's cutting into that base 45% support that Republican candidates always get

[Hash]

What are this indie dude Daggett's positions on the issues? Comes to me as a Independent conservative/Republican.

[DownWithTheLeft]

What are this indie dude Daggett's positions on the issues? Comes to me as a Independent conservative/Republican.

Not really, I believe he is a former Republican be he seems to be emphasizing his left-wing positions

His positions on his website though appear rather vague, and again he cites this mysterious trend of retirees that move to WYOMING

[Rowan]

He was director of the EPA under Reagan, so the dude is definitely an environmental lefty on those issues.

[War on Want]

What are this indie dude Daggett's positions on the issues? Comes to me as a Independent conservative/Republican.

He seems like a pragmatic center-right Republican. His tone seems more comprimising and he really seems to support environmental things.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What about the independent dude with a million on hand? Won't he soak up some votes?

Definitely at least 5%, possibly as much as 15-20% in the end. As the polls have suggested, he's a bit of a danger to Christie, not because he's drawing on the core Republican vote but because he's drawing the anti-establishment protest vote (the sort who won't be convinced by anyone to support Corzine, but aren't at all loyal to the Republicans) away from Christie. Daggett's campaign has at least the potential to really take off since the anger is there, but I don't think it will to the point of him being a serious contender to win.

Daggett's numbers depend on how well Corzine can smear Christie. Daggett will be the "none-of-the-above" choice, but he'll struggle to find votes without a solid angle. Daggett is a supposed moderate, so he won't be getting any ideological votes in the way that, say, Murray Sabrin did in 1997.

Without a solid attack on Christie (and no, calling Christie a pro-lifer isn't a solid attack), Daggett might not even get to 5%, his $1 million bankroll aside.

[Badger]

He was director of the EPA under Reagan, so the dude is definitely an environmental lefty on those issues.

Are you saying this sarcastically or just with historical cluelessness? You do realize Reagan was in a class of his own, even compared to prior Republican presidents, at rolling back environmental protections at every turn. And he used the very agencies created to protect and advocate for environmental protection (EPA, Interior Dept.) as spearheads in this effort.

James Watt, Anne Gorsuch, any of these names ring a bell?

Before anyone goes off about "environmental extremists" consider this: Since it's founding in 1905, The Audubon Society has been the county's premier conservation advocacy group while adamantly avoiding any endorsement of political candidates---until 1984 that is. Reagan's environmental record was so horrendous it forced Audubon to make an exception to it's near 80 year tradition of non-partisanship and endorse Mondale.

[Verily]

What about the independent dude with a million on hand? Won't he soak up some votes?

Definitely at least 5%, possibly as much as 15-20% in the end. As the polls have suggested, he's a bit of a danger to Christie, not because he's drawing on the core Republican vote but because he's drawing the anti-establishment protest vote (the sort who won't be convinced by anyone to support Corzine, but aren't at all loyal to the Republicans) away from Christie. Daggett's campaign has at least the potential to really take off since the anger is there, but I don't think it will to the point of him being a serious contender to win.

Daggett's numbers depend on how well Corzine can smear Christie. Daggett will be the "none-of-the-above" choice, but he'll struggle to find votes without a solid angle. Daggett is a supposed moderate, so he won't be getting any ideological votes in the way that, say, Murray Sabrin did in 1997.

Without a solid attack on Christie (and no, calling Christie a pro-lifer isn't a solid attack), Daggett might not even get to 5%, his $1 million bankroll aside.

Personally, I think there's at least 5% of the vote out there for the taking for "None of the Above", provided people know it's available before they enter the voting booth. Daggett's money means that they will know it's available, unlike for most random independents.

[fezzyfestoon]

I've got to agree with Mr. Moderate here.  Without a solid message Daggett's not going to be able to come anywhere close to 5%.  People that would vote for him will just stay home like they usually do.  Independents tend to overpoll.  Getting 5% for the total "Other" vote gives him about 2%.

[fezzyfestoon]

Unimportant: All three candidates are from awesome places and I might just vote for Daggett because he graduated from my high school.  Though I live in the same town as Christie and plan on living in the the same town as Corzine after I graduate.  Cool.