2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Based on the internals of the poll, the entirety of the movement to Corzine came from solidifying the base.  He was leading 76–19 amongst Democrats in July; he's now leading 83–10.

Christie leads amongst Independents by 35 points, down from 36 in July.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This would suggest that Republicans' best shot for winning Assembly seats would be in places like LD36 and 38 rather than LD 1 and 3.

You honestly think so?  I highly doubt this Republicans can win LD36 thing despite Pio Costa and Dioria being great candidates.  People need to realize they came so close in 2007 because the towns in the Meadowlands were furious over EnCap (much moreso than now).  Hell, Hipp and his running mates got 70%+ of the vote and it trickled down, that's not happening again

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This would suggest that Republicans' best shot for winning Assembly seats would be in places like LD36 and 38 rather than LD 1 and 3.

You honestly think so?  I highly doubt this Republicans can win LD36 thing despite Pio Costa and Dioria being great candidates.  People need to realize they came so close in 2007 because the towns in the Meadowlands were furious over EnCap (much moreso than now).  Hell, Hipp and his running mates got 70%+ of the vote and it trickled down, that's not happening again

I can't say for sure, but I'd have to guess that Republicans will wind up getting something, and Ferriero is now out of the picture in 36. I'm not really that sold on Pio Costa and Dioria as good candidates, but considering the GOP's shoddy recruitment statewide, they're some of the best you have.

Right now Democrats control the General Assembly by 48–32. Given a strong cycle, the GOP may be able to cut that to maybe 44–36 if they're lucky. Most likely, gains will be marginal, and Republicans may not pick up anything even if Christie wins by 10.

To stray further from reality, the GOP stealing control would probably require:

(1) GOP holds in all 32 currently-held seats. This is more likely than not.
(2) A sweep in LD1, which is doable-but-not-likely. There's no Van Drew on the ballot, so that helps the GOP. It's a really Republican seat. And the GOP candidates don't suck this go around.
(3) A sweep in LD36. After LD1, this is probably the GOP's next-best bet, even though it's basically a Democratic seat. This is one of the few districts on the list that could flip if Christie merely wins without landsliding.
(4) At least one pickup in LD14. Harder than it sounds, even though the GOP has proved competitive here this decade. No Bill Baroni on the ballot makes it an uphill climb, and the GOP candidates here aren't an inspiring bunch.
(5) LD22. Yes, it's really Democratic.  But the GOP has the best candidate they can get in Marty Marks, and Stender's been beaten up pretty good over the last four years. It could be a surprise sleeper pick-up.
(6) Miracles in South Jersey in general. LDs 4, 6, and 7 are all pretty solidly Democratic, but Christie could seriously wind up winning all three. There's a handful of "open" seats spread out across those 7 races (6 Assembly, 1 State Senate), but the GOP pretty much just punted candidate-wise.  Note that I left out LD3—if the GOP has lackluster candidates in 4, 6, and 7, it has an unmitigated disaster in LD3.
(7) Middlesex. The GOP has a built in base of 40% in Barbara Buono's district, and Corzine has been notably weak in the county. Are Edison and Metuchen ready for their first GOP legislator since the 1990s? Probably not, but Republicans probably need them to if they hope to get back to a majority this year.

[Ronnie]

Corzine narrowing gap:

Christie: 51%
Corzine: 42%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1362

[Vepres]

Corzine narrowing gap:

Christie: 51%
Corzine: 42%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1362

However, Christie is still above 50%, and that's more important.

[Ronnie]

Corzine narrowing gap:

Christie: 51%
Corzine: 42%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1362

However, Christie is still above 50%, and that's more important.

Well, Christie was at 53% before and now he's at 51%

I think it's just the Dems coming home.  Corzine will probably outspend Christie in the last months anyhow.

Plus, with Daggett in the race, Christie only leads by 6.

I predict Christie will end up winning by a margin of 50-46.

[Verily]

Basically. Even with Christie so far ahead, it should have been clear to everyone that Christie was not going to win by 15 points, even if he polled that well. Corzine is unlikely to win at this point, and I don't think Republicans really need to worry about him coming from behind to victory, but it will be reasonably close, probably within five points.

Also, the splits on that poll basically confirm what  was saying about where Daggett draws votes. His support is (as you would expect), highest among independents, and he takes his independent vote mostly from Christie. Yet Daggett's support is marginally higher among Democrats than Republicans--he's taking the disaffected people who usually vote Democratic but are considering Christie and don't like Corzine much.

[cinyc]

I think it's just the Dems coming home.  Corzine will probably outspend Christie in the last months anyhow.

Corzine held an event with and is running ads featuring Obama.  I wonder how much of his gain was due to Obama voters who weren't going to vote getting back into the likely voter screen.  This is a huge problem in Virginia, where the likely voter composition favors McCain voters even though Obama won the state.  We won't know because they didn't poll the question.  Maybe PPP will in their next NJ iteration.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow, Corzine's people are pathethic:

http://www.politickernj.com/editor/32223/rove-says-he-talked-christie-about-gubernatorial-bid

How dare Chris Christie think about his future while still US Attorney!!  I mean its not like Jon Corzine ever held another office and then became governor

[Rowan]

OMG! EVIL REPUBLICAN BOOGEYMAN KARL ROVE! OH NOES!!!! TORTURE! IRAQ! OMG! FAIL! FAIL!

[DownWithTheLeft]

OMG! EVIL REPUBLICAN BOOGEYMAN KARL ROVE! OH NOES!!!! TORTURE! IRAQ! OMG! FAIL! FAIL!

Did you read the end though?  The Karl Rove thing isn't anywhere near as ridiculous as "We want to know when Chris Christie thought about running for governor!"  GODDAMN HIS THOUGHTS

I mean seriously I think Gporter is Corzine's CM

[Rowan]

OMG! EVIL REPUBLICAN BOOGEYMAN KARL ROVE! OH NOES!!!! TORTURE! IRAQ! OMG! FAIL! FAIL!

Did you read the end though?  The Karl Rove thing isn't anywhere near as ridiculous as "We want to know when Chris Christie thought about running for governor!"  GODDAMN HIS THOUGHTS

I mean seriously I think Gporter is Corzine's CM

Where's the Freedom of Information Act Request for his diary? We need to know if he EVER thought of running for Governor at any time. EVER.

[Mr.Phips]

This would suggest that Republicans' best shot for winning Assembly seats would be in places like LD36 and 38 rather than LD 1 and 3.

You honestly think so?  I highly doubt this Republicans can win LD36 thing despite Pio Costa and Dioria being great candidates.  People need to realize they came so close in 2007 because the towns in the Meadowlands were furious over EnCap (much moreso than now).  Hell, Hipp and his running mates got 70%+ of the vote and it trickled down, that's not happening again

I can't say for sure, but I'd have to guess that Republicans will wind up getting something, and Ferriero is now out of the picture in 36. I'm not really that sold on Pio Costa and Dioria as good candidates, but considering the GOP's shoddy recruitment statewide, they're some of the best you have.

Right now Democrats control the General Assembly by 48–32. Given a strong cycle, the GOP may be able to cut that to maybe 44–36 if they're lucky. Most likely, gains will be marginal, and Republicans may not pick up anything even if Christie wins by 10.

To stray further from reality, the GOP stealing control would probably require:

(1) GOP holds in all 32 currently-held seats. This is more likely than not.
(2) A sweep in LD1, which is doable-but-not-likely. There's no Van Drew on the ballot, so that helps the GOP. It's a really Republican seat. And the GOP candidates don't suck this go around.
(3) A sweep in LD36. After LD1, this is probably the GOP's next-best bet, even though it's basically a Democratic seat. This is one of the few districts on the list that could flip if Christie merely wins without landsliding.
(4) At least one pickup in LD14. Harder than it sounds, even though the GOP has proved competitive here this decade. No Bill Baroni on the ballot makes it an uphill climb, and the GOP candidates here aren't an inspiring bunch.
(5) LD22. Yes, it's really Democratic.  But the GOP has the best candidate they can get in Marty Marks, and Stender's been beaten up pretty good over the last four years. It could be a surprise sleeper pick-up.
(6) Miracles in South Jersey in general. LDs 4, 6, and 7 are all pretty solidly Democratic, but Christie could seriously wind up winning all three. There's a handful of "open" seats spread out across those 7 races (6 Assembly, 1 State Senate), but the GOP pretty much just punted candidate-wise.  Note that I left out LD3—if the GOP has lackluster candidates in 4, 6, and 7, it has an unmitigated disaster in LD3.
(7) Middlesex. The GOP has a built in base of 40% in Barbara Buono's district, and Corzine has been notably weak in the county. Are Edison and Metuchen ready for their first GOP legislator since the 1990s? Probably not, but Republicans probably need them to if they hope to get back to a majority this year.

If the state Senate was up this year, Republican may have actually had a chance to tie there or even get a 21-19 majority.  The Assembly, however, is a map that is simply too favorable to Democrats for Republicans to gain much. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A key indicator continues to worsen for Democrats:

Quinnipiac is showing that Obama's approval ratings are down to 56%-39% in the Garden State, from 61%-33% a month prior.

[Sewer]

lol Mr. "Moderate".

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

lol Mr. "Moderate".

found out again by a newbie poster 

[cinyc]

A key indicator continues to worsen for Democrats:

Quinnipiac is showing that Obama's approval ratings are down to 56%-39% in the Garden State, from 61%-33% a month prior.

It's still net positive, though. 

Corzine needs Obama to come to the state not so much to persuade likely voters, but to get those who may not vote to the polls.  Ditto Deeds in Virginia (though he has a tighter rope to walk on since Obama's approval is net negative in Virginia, IIRC).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Those numbers mean Obama is net negative now amongst Indies, and it's only getting worse between now and election day.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is cute: In response to the news story that Christie had a conversation with Rove pertaining to his run for governor, Dick Codey is now pushing a bill that would prevent U.S. Attorneys (and others in similar posts) from running for office until they've been out of office for two years.

[ajc0918]

I expect Christie to win 53-45.

[Alexander Hamilton]

I expect Christie to win 53-45.

It depends on the 3rd party candidacy's strength.

[Alexander Hamilton]

I expect Christie to win 53-45.

It depends on the 3rd party candidacy's strength.

Oh, didn't think of that...

still won't be enough for Corzine to get re-elected.

[ajc0918]

I expect Christie to win 53-45.

It depends on the 3rd party candidacy's strength.

Oh, didn't think of that...

still won't be enough for Corzine to get re-elected.

Yeah, the indy will take more away from Corzine than Christie...

[Alexander Hamilton]

I expect Christie to win 53-45.

It depends on the 3rd party candidacy's strength.

Oh, didn't think of that...

still won't be enough for Corzine to get re-elected.

Yeah, the indy will take more away from Corzine than Christie...

Probably disillusioned moderates who are dissatisfied with both parties, can't blame them either.

[Holmes]

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/08/chris_christie_ranked_by_bush.html

New Jersey needs this man.