Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Alcon]

COLORADO - Republicans hold advantage in early balloting, but not by the typical margins.

From the Denver Post:

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What it really means:  Beware of stories like this.  Democrats are energized.  Anti-Bush sentiment sparked enthusiasm, and Obama sparks enthusiasm too.  This news isn't disaster for the Colorado GOP; trailing early voting probably would have been.  Then again, they need good news, and this isn't good news.

[Lief 🗽]

The Obama campaign is really big on early voting (or at least they were during the Texas primary). Then again, Obama won among early voters in Texas, and a lot of good that did him in the end.

[Alcon]

Boilerplate:

Guess what?  Local media is excited about high early turnout in DeKalb County, Georgia.  And Mingo County, West Virginia.  And about 10,000 other places before Election Day.

(Pay no attention to these stories.  Seriously.)

[TomC]

Then again, Obama won among early voters in Texas, and a lot of good that did him in the end.

Add the Texas primary delegates and the caucus delegates and it's Obama 99 Clinton 94.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The Obama campaign is really big on early voting (or at least they were during the Texas primary). Then again, Obama won among early voters in Texas, and a lot of good that did him in the end.

yeah, but Texas was demographically very difficult for him, and he came very close to winning. Without the early voting effort he would likely have lost by even more.

[Brittain33]

The Obama campaign is really big on early voting (or at least they were during the Texas primary). Then again, Obama won among early voters in Texas, and a lot of good that did him in the end.

yeah, but Texas was demographically very difficult for him, and he came very close to winning. Without the early voting effort he would likely have lost by even more.

I think this is where the difference between the general election and primary elections comes into play. Early voting helps candidates bank their strong voters' votes. In a primary, where election day turnout is lighter, that helps. In a general election, it doesn't hurt, but it doesn't move the needle as much. Of course it's helpful if the McCain campaign doesn't have a least a passable early voting campaign to match it...

[Lief 🗽]

Black turnout very high in Georgia early voting

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http://www.ajc.com/news/content/metro/stories/2008/10/02/black_early_voting.html

[Alcon]

Georgia -- Not early voting, but some pretty astounding registration statistics.

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[Firefly]

Secretary of State Mike Coffman's office is predicting that mail-in ballots will be about 40 percent of the Nov. 4 vote.

Wow.  That seems way high.  Could this be an accurate prediction?

[Tender Branson]

Black turnout very high in Georgia early voting

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http://www.ajc.com/news/content/metro/stories/2008/10/02/black_early_voting.html

That might somehow explain Obama's 64-35 lead in the latest SUSA poll among GA's early voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2fdaa784-f308-4d21-a3d5-0b0471b397a8

[Meeker]

Secretary of State Mike Coffman's office is predicting that mail-in ballots will be about 40 percent of the Nov. 4 vote.

Wow.  That seems way high.  Could this be an accurate prediction?

Colorado allows permanent absentee, so it's not really that odd. Other states that allow permanent absentee have very high absentee voting rates as well (California 70%, Washington 90%, etc.)

[Tender Branson]

COLORADO - Republicans hold advantage in early balloting, but not by the typical margins.

From the Denver Post:

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What it really means:  Beware of stories like this.  Democrats are energized.  Anti-Bush sentiment sparked enthusiasm, and Obama sparks enthusiasm too.  This news isn't disaster for the Colorado GOP; trailing early voting probably would have been.  Then again, they need good news, and this isn't good news.

These are just numbers for requests, right ? Actual early voting is a different matter ...

There are a lot of people that may request a ballot, but then won't vote.

[Bacon King]

Wow, I'm a bit excited about Georgia here. I know Obama "pulled out" of Georgia but it sounds like there's still some framework on the ground. I am personally responsible for about thirty of those new registrations, btw

[Nym90]

Georgia -- Not early voting, but some pretty astounding registration statistics.

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Cue Sam Spade to explain why this means absolutely nothing whatsoever.

[Sam Spade]

Georgia -- Not early voting, but some pretty astounding registration statistics.

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Cue Sam Space to explain why this means absolutely nothing whatsoever.

"Sam Space" (in Bob Dole terms) can't explain *whether it means something* or *whether it means nothing* unless I compare November 2004 to January 2008 to September 30 on a county-by-county basis (and you would probably need precinct numbers to be greatly accurate). 

Something which I don't have time for, Nym, sorry.    I'll see if I can pull up some rough numbers in a moment that might mean something...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd argue it means nothing because it's in Georgia. However if these type of numbers are being repeated in Virginia and Florida...

[Aizen]

I'd argue it means nothing because it's in Georgia. However if these type of numbers are being repeated in Virginia and Florida...

...and North Carolina.


Stick a fork in McCain. He's finished.

[Sam Spade]

Roughly.  Including Active and Inactive voters.  The inactive voters skew marginally black (like 2%-3%), but the difference in numbers is not statistically significant in my mind.  Historically, that's about how they skew as well.

November 2004 (it was a little less than this)
*Black* 1,377,803 (27.71%)
*White* 3,388,498 (68.17%)
*Asian/Hispanic* 69,469 (1.40%)
*Other* 135,027 (2.72%)
Total 4,970,797

November 2008
*Black* 1,636,423 (29.23%)
*White* 3,556,524 (63.53%)
*Asian/Hispanic/Indian* 141,314 (2.52%)
*Other* 264,124 (4.71%)
Total 5,598,425

Census 2000
White/Non-Hispanic 62.6%
Black 28.5%
Asian/Hispanic/Indian/Other 7.8%
Two or other races 1.1%

Census 2006 (estimated)
White/Non-Hispanic 58.9%
Black 29.9%
Asian/Hispanic/Indian 10.7%
Two or more races 1.1%

I would have to go piece-by-piece through the Voter Turnout by Demographics part of the website to pick up 2000 numbers and registration numbers/changes by county.  Also, if I did that, it would only be active voters, not inactives...

I don't have the time for that now, so this is what you're going to get. 

[Sam Spade]

I'd argue it means nothing because it's in Georgia. However if these type of numbers are being repeated in Virginia and Florida...

...and North Carolina.


Stick a fork in McCain. He's finished.

The gains are much larger for blacks in Georgia.

I did the numbers in NC - it's only a shift of 0.75% total towards the blacks from the whites.  Latino numbers haven't changed much, actually.

I haven't taken the time for Virginia or Florida yet.  Give me time.

[Nym90]

Georgia -- Not early voting, but some pretty astounding registration statistics.

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Cue Sam Space to explain why this means absolutely nothing whatsoever.

"Sam Space" (in Bob Dole terms) can't explain *whether it means something* or *whether it means nothing* unless I compare November 2004 to January 2008 to September 30 on a county-by-county basis (and you would probably need precinct numbers to be greatly accurate). 

Something which I don't have time for, Nym, sorry.    I'll see if I can pull up some rough numbers in a moment that might mean something...

Oops. That honestly was just a typo, not an insight into my psyche, Sam Spade. Sometimes I type way too fast for my own good.

I suspect that the increase doesn't mean much, but was just looking forward to you deconstructing it for us.

[Sam Spade]

Turnout of "active" voters is another interesting statistic:

November 2000 (Active Voter Turnout)
*Black* - Active RV 980,033 (25.42%)
*Black* - Turnout 615,723 (23.19%)
*White* - Active RV 2,792,479 (72.43%)
*White* - Turnout 1,993,493 (75.08%)
*Other* - Active RV 82,862 (2.15%)
*Other* - Turnout 46,109 (1.74%)
Total - Active RV 3,855,374
Total - Turnout 2,655,325 (69%)

November 2004 (Active Voter Turnout)
*Black* - Active RV 1,155,706 (27.20%)
*Black* - Turnout 834,331 (25.40%)
*White* - Active RV 2,917,322 (68.66%)
*White* - Turnout 2,344,632 (71.37%)
*Asian/Hisp/Other/Unknown* - Active RV 175,809 (4.14%)
*Asian/Hisp/Other/Unknown* - Turnout 106,177 (3.23%)
Total - Active RV 4,248,837
Total - Turnout 3,285,140 (77%)

October 1, 2008 (Active Voters)
*Black* - Active RV 1,445,153 (29.03%)
*White* - Active RV 3,176,520 (63.80%)
*Asian/Hisp/Other/Unknown - Active RV 357,031 (7.17%)
Total - Active RV 4,978,704

[Bacon King]

Reason for the high level of Georgia early voting:

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Got that in an email from the Gwinnett County Democratic Party encouraging me to vote early.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reason for the high level of Georgia early voting:

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Got that in an email from the Gwinnett County Democratic Party encouraging me to vote early.

You kind of have to since you're voting absentee.

[Lief 🗽]

So, of the votes currently cast, Barack Obama and Jim Martin are currently winning the state of Georgia. Probably won't last, but it's still fun to say.

[Lunar]

Underwhelming in Ohio:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gmJpgsrR27lwSUQ24_WSSrU0W-JwD93L8H1O0

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