Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Josh/Devilman88]

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They said people were in line to vote for over 3 hours.

[TheresNoMoney]

Georgia Early Voting Update:

10/20

691,507 People have voted

246,113 Blacks thus far (35.59%)

[TheresNoMoney]

Nevada-10/20

Also, Nevada political guru Jon Ralston noted that the early-voting returns in his state seem to be in Dems’ favor. “Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trends holds, this won’t be a wave; it’ll be a tsunami. Republicans had a lead on the first day of mail ballot tallying -- 5,407 to 4,947. So overall, it’s 20,591 to 11,128.” 

Link

[Lunar]

The ultimate compilation: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[Alcon]

Dept. of sobering reminders:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Early_voting_04.html?showall

[Lunar]

In Florida, Dems at 54-31-15
In Georgia, Blacks at 35.6%

In North Carolina, Dems leading 56-28-16, blacks at 28%, 18-29 age group at 11%

[Dan the Roman]

Blacks had a really good day yesterday in Georgia, made up close to 38% of early voters, and pushed their overall figure up to 36.66% from 35.59%. They may have simply headed down because of bad weather in Dekalb and Fulton the last few days.

[Alcon]

Early voting in NE-2 also trends Democratic and black (yes, there are blacks in Nebraska):

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Source

In 2004, Douglas county delivered its vote to Bush, 58-40.

[Bacon King]

Remember to not get too hyped up about early voting, everyone. Each early Obama voter will just be one voter less on election day.

[Alcon]

Remember to not get too hyped up about early voting, everyone. Each early Obama voter will just be one voter less on election day.

I tend to think that's true.  Other than a few voters at the margin, all of these people would be voting on Election Day anyway -- although we've never seen this focus on getting infrequent voters to vote early, and that is significant.

[Tender Branson]

Texas reports 340.000 voters on the first day of early voting yesterday.

And that's only the 15 largest counties ...

Breakdown:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct20.shtml

[Sam Spade]

Texas reports 340.000 voters on the first day of early voting yesterday.

And that's only the 15 largest counties ...

Breakdown:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct20.shtml

For comparison, first day 2004.

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2004/oct18.shtml

The numbers are all higher than in 2004 with the exception of Williamson (which looks odd to me - didn't get their numbers in time perhaps, we'll see).

[tokar]

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They said people were in line to vote for over 3 hours.

Impressive.  My friend here in Greenville says he is going to vote this weekend (hopefully).

I wish I were registered in a state with early voting...

[Sam Spade]

Lot of white votes came in yesterday in Georgia.  Black % went from 36.66% to 35.57%.

In NC, D56-R27-O17 registration, 29.0% black, 10.9% 18-29.  Minor increase for blacks, minor decrease for young-uns.

[TheresNoMoney]

Lot of white votes came in yesterday in Georgia.  Black % went from 36.66% to 35.57%.

For blacks to still be at 35.5% at this point is great news for Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

He just needs blacks at 30% to win the state, so 35% is phenomenal. Even the high 20s would be great, though McCain would win.

[TheresNoMoney]

He just needs blacks at 30% to win the state, so 35% is phenomenal.

Yep, and it should be pointed out that the numbers have been remarkably stable. Black voting percentage has been right at 35%-37% for the entire early voting period.

[Lief 🗽]

How do exit polls work when there's such heavy early voting turnout? Something like 1/3 of people are going to vote before election day, so exit pollsters on election day won't be getting representative samples of the entire electorate.

[Alcon]

How do exit polls work when there's such heavy early voting turnout? Something like 1/3 of people are going to vote before election day, so exit pollsters on election day won't be getting representative samples of the entire electorate.

The networks are probably panicking a good deal about that.  My guess is they'll do phone polls and then weight that in.  Or something.  The exit polls have the potential to be unusually terrible this year.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

Hmm. Almost doubled compared with '04.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

Hmm. Almost doubled compared with '04.

7.20% is not really double 4.31%.  It's more like 70% greater.  But whatever... 

[Sam Spade]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

Hmm. Almost doubled compared with '04.

7.20% is not really double 4.31%.  It's more like 70% greater.  But whatever... 

I reexamined the numbers again.  The most interesting thing about the Texas numbers is the high Harris early voting totals and the exceptionally pathetic early voting totals along the border.

[Lunar]

The ultimate compilation: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Current numbers:

Florida 470k votes
Dem   54.5%
Rep   30.5%
No/Oth   15.0%

Georgia ~890k
Race

White 65.5%
Black 38.4% (some GOP operatives told MAmbinder that many of these voters were "unlikely voters")
Other/Unk 3.1%

Sex
Men 44.3%
Women 60.6%
Unk 2.1%

North Carolina

Party

Dem 56.3%
Rep 27.1%
None 16.6%

Age

18-29 11.0%   
30-44 18.0%   
45-64 41.3%   
65+ 29.7%   

Race

White 67.4%   
Black 28.8%   
Other 3.8%

[Sam Spade]

Your Georgia numbers are off.