Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[TeePee4Prez]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

There are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

[Ty440]

Phil, just because Obama isn't going to perform that well in NE Philly as Kerry or Gore did (and I tend to agree) doesn't mean that Obama's dead in PA.  It's only one small section and might get outweighed by higher black turnout in the city (though black turnout has been pretty high to begin with).

When you're losing areas that Kerry and Gore won with over 60% of the vote, you're in some deep trouble. That's just in Philly. Wait until we get further out west (especially in the southwest).

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This isn't just personal anecdotes. I'm going to believe the Democratic leaders themselves when they say that they can't even connect with their voters on this one. When they can't have a successful GOTV effort like they did for Kerry, they have problems.

They just refuse to believe you Phil.....I think a lot of posters don't live in areas where there  is
race tension..So they don't have first hand experience of someone who lives in a big city...

Here in cuyahoga county

Race and ethnicity always plays a huge part in elections..It isn't just race alone though

I remember  a big controversy of someone running for a county wide office changing his last name to Russo

An ethnic  last name Like Russo  or Dimora  is always worth a couple percentage points on election day

[Keystone Phil]

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

You can't compare this to Nutter.

1) Turnout was much lower.
2) The Republicans ran a very weak candidate.
3) Whites in this city have pretty much resigned themselves to thinking that a black person will be Mayor of this city for the rest of time. That's not the case for the Presidency.

Obama is helped by the fact that he isn't like Street, Jackson and Sharpton. But then his wife makes a comment and then there's Rev. Wright and the Muslim issue...

They just refuse to believe you Phil.....I think a lot of posters don't live in areas where there  is
race tension..So they don't have first hand experience of someone who lives in a big city...

Here in cuyahoga county

Race and ethnicity always plays a huge part in elections..It isn't just race alone though

I remember  a big controversy of someone running for a county wide office changing his last name to Russo

An ethnic  last name Like Russo  or Dimora  is always worth a couple percentage points on election day

It's going to be like that in a lot of areas especially in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. They refuse to believe me because I have been wrong about big races in the past. That's fine. They can beat up on me for that stuff all they want. Let's just wait until November 4th.

[TomC]

Are there not more Hispanic and Asian voters in Penn than there were four years ago? I see Obama is doing better than Kerry among Hispanics. I can't find any data on Asian AMericans.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Are there not more Hispanic and Asian voters in Penn than there were four years ago? I see Obama is doing better than Kerry among Hispanics. I can't find any data on Asian AMericans.

I doubt Asians are voting in PA in big enough numbers to make much difference. However, in other parts of the country, the Asian vote actually tracks pretty closely with the white vote in the area they live, usually being slightly more Democratic. That's why Orange County Asians and Taiwanese in the Houston suburbs and exurbs vote Republican, while NorCal Asians are heavily Democratic. There are some exceptions: Korean-Americans are more likely to be Evangelical and Conservative, while Japanese-Americans tend to be socially liberal and heavily Democratic.

[J. J.]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

The are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

Which Street-Katz.  If Obama only wins Phila as strongly as Street did in 1999, he is doomed statewide.  Even 2003 Street-Katz would be a serious problem.

[Keystone Phil]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

The are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

Which Street-Katz.  If Obama only wins Phila as strongly as Street did in 1999, he is doomed statewide.  Even 2003 Street-Katz would be a serious problem.

LOL yeah!

If it's Katz vs. Street 1999 then Obama is getting destroyed across the state and the country. That was a two point race. If it's Katz vs. Street 2004 (58% - 42%) then Obama is also done.

[TeePee4Prez]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

The are older white Dems who think he is actually Musllim.  I know it's a shame, but people really think that.  I hate to have to bring up race in this, but people here really think that way unfortunately. 

However, I bring up Nutter for this reason- Northeast whites aren't that adverse to voting for an African American which is why I only think Obama will surely lose only 1 Ward in NE Philly and probably 3 others- 2 NE, 1 South.  When it comes to the race issue, I have been pleasantly surprised in the past.  I thought Nutter was only going to get 75-77% because of race.  He got 85% and won handily a lot of the same Wards we've been talking about, even the most conservative.  Will Obama puil Nutter or even Kerry's numbers?  Probably not, but it will be nowhere near Street/Katz territory either.  Obama has cred amongst white voters even here and if he 1. Campaigns heavily with Biden and Rendell and 2. Shows his distance from the John Street, Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton types, which he has shown in the past, he has a good chance with a lot of white voters here.

Which Street-Katz.  If Obama only wins Phila as strongly as Street did in 1999, he is doomed statewide.  Even 2003 Street-Katz would be a serious problem.

LOL yeah!

If it's Katz vs. Street 1999 then Obama is getting destroyed across the state and the country. That was a two point race. If it's Katz vs. Street 2004 (58% - 42%) then Obama is also done.

I'm thinking it won't be even close to 2003 Katz-Street.  Obama has consistently polled in the 70s citywide the McCain in the high teens with the rest undecided.  Interestingly that's about what Kerry polled prior to the election.  Look, if it comes down to the economy and War, McCain has problems I don't care how much race i involved. 

[Keystone Phil]

I'm thinking it won't be even close to 2003 Katz-Street.  Obama has consistently polled in the 70s citywide the McCain in the high teens with the rest undecided.  Interestingly that's about what Kerry polled prior to the election.  Look, if it comes down to the economy and War, McCain has problems I don't care how much race i involved. 

Polling shows that McCain does better when the war/national security is the issue.

I don't remember ever seeing a citywide poll but Obama being in the 70s is just where I'd expect him to be. This thing will end 75% - 25% or maybe a bit more for McCain. Bush got about 19%.

I believe that Kerry probably polled in a similar range but he had room to expand. Obama doesn't. If anything, with the Bradley Effect in white areas of the city, we should be expecting worse for him.

[J. J.]

I'm thinking it won't be even close to 2003 Katz-Street.  Obama has consistently polled in the 70s citywide the McCain in the high teens with the rest undecided.  Interestingly that's about what Kerry polled prior to the election.  Look, if it comes down to the economy and War, McCain has problems I don't care how much race i involved. 

Bush had 19.3% in Phila in 2004.  Even at 22.5% that could be a loss.  Ridge in 1994 had around 25%.

If McCain is running that relatively well in Phila, PA is a tossup.

[TeePee4Prez]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

[War on Want]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

Exactly, does he actually have any affect on Scranton too?

[Brittain33]

Everyone in Pennsylvania who voted for Bush in 2004, will vote for McCain, plus many of the Kerry voters who voted for Hillary in the primary will be voting for McCain, and so McCain wins Pennsylvania. Obama, meanwhile, draws from the Kerry universe with significant chunks cut away, and whatever extra enthusiasm he draws from hyper-Democratic constituencies is too small to make a difference. That appears to be the argument.

[Torie]

I would be amazed if Biden has any impact on Pennsylvania, except perhaps a generic one that is not about Pennsylvania qua Pennsylvania, i.e., with a few odd down market ethnic whites. Why on earth would he? Because he is from Scranton? Because he lives nearby? I ain't buying it. And if there is a God, maybe he will send a few odd Torie types who were going to vote for Obama to the exits. Yes, I find Biden quite repulsive.

[J. J.]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

[J. J.]

I would be amazed if Biden has any impact on Pennsylvania, except perhaps a generic one that is not about Pennsylvania qua Pennsylvania, i.e., with a few odd down market ethnic whites. Why on earth would he? Because he is from Scranton? Because he lives nearby? I ain't buying it. And if there is a God, maybe he will send a few odd Torie types who were going to vote for Obama to the exits. Yes, I find Biden quite repulsive.

Biden is basically in the Phila media market.  If there is a story about him, it's seen in SE PA.  It should help.

[Хahar 🤔]

The good thing about all this is that if I ever run for office, at least I won't have to dodge false rumors that I'm a Muslim.

[Torie]

The good thing about all this is that if I ever run for office, at least I won't have to dodge false rumors that I'm a Muslim.

Unless of course, you convert, or become a secular, and live to tell the tale.

Seriously, there are huge movements of populations in the country to and from faith, or between faiths, and that delta function is increasing.

[TeePee4Prez]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

[anti_leftist]

Let's just play around with some numbers:

Philly County 2000: 80-18%, Total Votes= ~561K, Margin= ~348K, State Margin= ~205K
Philly County 2004: 80-19%, Total Votes= ~674K, Margin= ~412K, State Margin= ~144K


Let's say that the PA posters are right about Obama in the mid-70s and, for simplicity's sake, Philly County goes 75-25 this time. I'll just estimate total votes as 700K due to higher black turnout. This would make the margin 350K (50%*700). This is a net loss of 62K for Obama from 04. Although that's definitely a significant number, holding all other things constant Obama still has an 82K advantage in the state. Of course, there may be other working class areas that could feature a similar pattern, but there could just as easily be other places in PA that trend Democratic (following the general national trend) to offset or even outweigh this. However, to say that Obama would be finished by getting mid-70s in Philly is just ludicrous. 

[Keystone Phil]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

Biden will not help much at all. Certainly not enough to sway a ward.

I would be amazed if Biden has any impact on Pennsylvania, except perhaps a generic one that is not about Pennsylvania qua Pennsylvania, i.e., with a few odd down market ethnic whites. Why on earth would he? Because he is from Scranton? Because he lives nearby? I ain't buying it. And if there is a God, maybe he will send a few odd Torie types who were going to vote for Obama to the exits. Yes, I find Biden quite repulsive.

Biden is basically in the Phila media market.  If there is a story about him, it's seen in SE PA.  It should help.

He's well known but not that big of a star. People identify with him but not as much as the media is hyping it to be.

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

No, he can't and Bob Brady disagrees with you. If he's not leaving Philly with a margin of 500,000, you're not taking the state. That's what Brady has said. You're not making up enough ground elsewhere.

However, to say that Obama would be finished by getting mid-70s in Philly is just ludicrous. 

His leaders in the city are basically saying it, not just some McCain supporters. If he's struggling in areas in Philly, you can bet that he's struggling with those same types of voters out west (especially in the southwest corner of the state).

[ChrisFromNJ]

I would be amazed if Biden has any impact on Pennsylvania, except perhaps a generic one that is not about Pennsylvania qua Pennsylvania, i.e., with a few odd down market ethnic whites.

Yet Sarah Palin is going to swing the entire election to McCain.

[J. J.]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

21.5 for McCain in Phila really pushes it.  I think there will be a Bradley effect of less than 1 point statewide; Phila will be no exception.  If it is that close, this state is undecided.  Pennsylvania could be what Florida was in 2000.

Since I've been here, Biden's been on TV; I'd know who he was from that.

[TeePee4Prez]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

21.5 for McCain in Phila really pushes it.  I think there will be a Bradley effect of less than 1 point statewide; Phila will be no exception.  If it is that close, this state is undecided.  Pennsylvania could be what Florida was in 2000.

Since I've been here, Biden's been on TV; I'd know who he was from that.

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

From what I've read, the Bradley effect has diminished quite a bit since the 1980s.

[Keystone Phil]

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

For Obama.

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This is the first time a black man is the nominee of a major party so it's a whole new ball game.