Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[J. J.]

J.J and Phil- You both are forgetting one thing and I know at least Phil will snicker- Biden.  He definitely gives Obama a boost in NE Philly/Lower Bucks whether you like to think so or not.  Might be a few points, but it could be enough to sway a Ward or 2 from going the other way. Palin would give McCain no such boost. 

It could, and Palin could boost numbers in the "T" just as well.

If Obama is in the mid 70's in just Philadelphia, he has a problem in Pennsylvania, not a friend.  With Biden on the ticket, low to mid 80's would be expected.

If Hillary Clinton were leading the ticket, she's have mid 80s regardless of VP choice.  If it were Biden, even the more conservative Wards would have 60-65 percent vote totals and possibly a citywide total of the high 80s.

My guess as of now 77.5-21.5-1.  Obama can win statewide with those numbers in Philly. 

21.5 for McCain in Phila really pushes it.  I think there will be a Bradley effect of less than 1 point statewide; Phila will be no exception.  If it is that close, this state is undecided.  Pennsylvania could be what Florida was in 2000.

Since I've been here, Biden's been on TV; I'd know who he was from that.

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

From what I've read, the Bradley effect has diminished quite a bit since the 1980s.

It use to be about 10 points.  I think it's there, but under 1 point.

Anything over 20% is bad for Obama, though probably survivable at the low end, 20.5%.  22% depends on how many people heard him say "Nittaly Lions."  22.5% and Tom Ridge is back in the Cabinet.  That's without the Bradley Effect.

21.5 it comes down to if it's raining in Phila at 7:00 AM.  Think Florida in 2000.

[Ty440]

Breaking new poll...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46%

But even better news..for me at least........

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!


If Mccain can hold at least a 2 point lead for a least a couple weeks ..turn out the lights the partys over....I dont see Obama closing the gap in the debates

The left wing kooks are going crazy at the daily kos!

[TomC]

"Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Do we think this has something to do with it?:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/11/nation/na-streetmoney11

[Keystone Phil]

"Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Do we think this has something to do with it?:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/11/nation/na-streetmoney11

...

How would that have anything to do with it? They'll vote for Obama because their committeepeople will get paid?

The whole money game revolves around GOTV efforts. McAleer is saying that he'll "get" these people for Obama without mentioning the money aspect. In the end, it doesn't matter. McAleer has other races to worry about and he's not going to waste committeepeople (who need to work the polling place pushing other candidates) for Obama GOTV.

[Nym90]

I would be amazed if Biden has any impact on Pennsylvania, except perhaps a generic one that is not about Pennsylvania qua Pennsylvania, i.e., with a few odd down market ethnic whites.

Yet Sarah Palin is going to swing the entire election to McCain.

In all fairness, I've never seen Torie argue that.

[Keystone Phil]

"Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Do we think this has something to do with it?:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/11/nation/na-streetmoney11

Or...are you saying they won't be pushing Obama because they're not getting street money? That could be a factor but I don't know why you'd use that McAleer quote. He's saying he'll work on getting them (unless you think that's code for "Pay up, Barack.")

[TomC]

"Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Do we think this has something to do with it?:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/11/nation/na-streetmoney11

Or...are you saying they won't be pushing Obama because they're not getting street money? That could be a factor but I don't know why you'd use that McAleer quote. He's saying he'll work on getting them (unless you think that's code for "Pay up, Barack.")

Well, I'm asking, but yeah, kinda. He seems to be saying he's having a hard time, almost like he needs some incentive (since he's not changing Obama's color). I get he's a Ward Lerader, but I have no clue what McAleer ultimately does for the Obama campaign, what his role is. I'm wondering out loud, not making a case.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm sure the DNC or some liberal PAC or someone will pay the "street money" if Obama refuses to (which I doubt, he'll probably end up doing it except under the table most likely.) It was different in the primary when Obama had no one on his side except his own campaign (and a few small PACs)

[Keystone Phil]

"Do I have them right now in the 66th ward? No. But I got 60 days to get them."

Do we think this has something to do with it?:

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/11/nation/na-streetmoney11

Or...are you saying they won't be pushing Obama because they're not getting street money? That could be a factor but I don't know why you'd use that McAleer quote. He's saying he'll work on getting them (unless you think that's code for "Pay up, Barack.")

Well, I'm asking, but yeah, kinda. He seems to be saying he's having a hard time, almost like he needs some incentive (since he's not changing Obama's color). I get he's a Ward Lerader, but I have no clue what McAleer ultimately does for the Obama campaign, what his role is. I'm wondering out loud, not making a case.

He's not part of the actual campaign but that doesn't matter in big city, machine politics. These people are more important than some campaign official. McAleer, like almost every other NE Philly Democratic leader, was for Hillary big time. That being said, I didn't read this as McAleer needing some incentive to get the votes. He's going to say that he's looking for the votes to satisfy the city leadership (Brady and Company) but, ultimately, he doesn't care. Like I said, he and other local leaders are concerned about other races. He's going to use his resources where they get the most results and that is not with Barack Obama (especially in the 66th ward).

I'm sure the DNC or some liberal PAC or someone will pay the "street money" if Obama refuses to (which I doubt, he'll probably end up doing it except under the table most likely.) It was different in the primary when Obama had no one on his side except his own campaign (and a few small PACs)

Good for them. Don't think that the ward leaders are suddenly going to drop their other candidates (people that actually have a shot at doing very well in these areas) to push Obama. The DNC or liberal PACs are going to have to send up a lot more of their own people this year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good for them. Don't think that the ward leaders are suddenly going to drop their other candidates (people that actually have a shot at doing very well in these areas) to push Obama. The DNC or liberal PACs are going to have to send up a lot more of their own people this year.

And they would be doing that already. Is it that hard to bus people over from New Jersey? (I hear this goes on all the time already.)

[Keystone Phil]

Good for them. Don't think that the ward leaders are suddenly going to drop their other candidates (people that actually have a shot at doing very well in these areas) to push Obama. The DNC or liberal PACs are going to have to send up a lot more of their own people this year.

And they would be doing that already. Is it that hard to bus people over from New Jersey? (I hear this goes on all the time already.)

Ok fine but if they're trying to drag the people in question to the polls, they're going to hit a major roadblock. It would be much easier if it was their neighborhood committeeperson doing it. Simply putting up the door knockers "Remember to vote for Obama - Biden today!" won't do it this time around.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know, I live in a major city too, and basically no one (including myself) knows who their neighborhood committee person is, and no one except political junkies can name the local party leaders.

[J. J.]

You know, I live in a major city too, and basically no one (including myself) knows who their neighborhood committee person is, and no one except political junkies can name the local party leaders.

It's a bit different in Phila.  We basically have political appointments down to the block level, and some of our neighborhoods are quite stable.

[Flying Dog]

I still can't believe people believe Obama is a Muslim. You know, I can almost see why politicians air ads that make voters seem like they are stupid and will believe anything... they will. For example, there is a ad airing in MI blaming the fact that our economy is in the gutter on not drilling for oil. Yeah, sure. Drill. See if the economy gets better because of it. There is also another ad airing in Macomb Co. showing a quote from Obama praising Kilpatrick. Not mentioning the fact that it was before all the scandals and when he was relatively popular in the city.

[Keystone Phil]

You know, I live in a major city too, and basically no one (including myself) knows who their neighborhood committee person is, and no one except political junkies can name the local party leaders.

Uh...you don't live in a city dominated by a machine like Philly's. Thanks for trying, yet again, to apply your situation to everyone else's.

You know, I live in a major city too, and basically no one (including myself) knows who their neighborhood committee person is, and no one except political junkies can name the local party leaders.

It's a bit different in Phila.  We basically have political appointments down to the block level, and some of our neighborhoods are quite stable.

Don't bother with him. It was only an attempt at him trying to fit in how things are for him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know, I live in a major city too, and basically no one (including myself) knows who their neighborhood committee person is, and no one except political junkies can name the local party leaders.

Uh...you don't live in a city dominated by a machine like Philly's. Thanks for trying, yet again, to apply your situation to everyone else's.

Then how do Democrats get numbers only marginally less than Philly here, which is easily explained by the city being far whiter than Philly?

[Keystone Phil]

You know, I live in a major city too, and basically no one (including myself) knows who their neighborhood committee person is, and no one except political junkies can name the local party leaders.

Uh...you don't live in a city dominated by a machine like Philly's. Thanks for trying, yet again, to apply your situation to everyone else's.

Then how do Democrats get numbers only marginally less than Philly here, which is easily explained by the city being far whiter than Philly?

...

That doesn't change the fact that my city is run by a machine. 

[Хahar 🤔]

The good thing about all this is that if I ever run for office, at least I won't have to dodge false rumors that I'm a Muslim.

Unless of course, you convert, or become a secular, and live to tell the tale.

Seriously, there are huge movements of populations in the country to and from faith, or between faiths, and that delta function is increasing.

At the moment I have no such plans.

Of course, that's what they all say before converting.

[Stranger in a strange land]

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

For Obama.

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This is the first time a black man is the nominee of a major party so it's a whole new ball game.

So where was the Bradley Effect during the primaries?

[Keystone Phil]

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

For Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the first time a black man is the nominee of a major party so it's a whole new ball game.

So where was the Bradley Effect during the primaries?

Again, for those who obviously can't read, this is the General election. The Bradley Effect is less likely among Democratic voters. Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

[Stranger in a strange land]

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

For Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the first time a black man is the nominee of a major party so it's a whole new ball game.

So where was the Bradley Effect during the primaries?

Again, for those who obviously can't read, this is the General election. The Bradley Effect is less likely among Democratic voters. Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

If anything, I think Democratic voters would be more afraid of being percieved as racist, even if some harbor racist beliefs. The Bradley Effect refers to voters telling a pollster one thing and doing another. Again, the Muslim rumor gives racist voters a "plausible" cover story for not voting for Obama due to race. 

[Keystone Phil]

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

For Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the first time a black man is the nominee of a major party so it's a whole new ball game.

So where was the Bradley Effect during the primaries?

Again, for those who obviously can't read, this is the General election. The Bradley Effect is less likely among Democratic voters. Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

If anything, I think Democratic voters would be more afraid of being percieved as racist, even if some harbor racist beliefs. The Bradley Effect refers to voters telling a pollster one thing and doing another. Again, the Muslim rumor gives racist voters a "plausible" cover story for not voting for Obama due to race. 

And Independents and Republicans aren't afraid of being perceived as racists?

I know what the Bradley Effect is, dude. The other half of your argument about the Muslim rumor is...uh...actually not a counter argument to what I'm saying.

[Stranger in a strange land]

You think better than 21.5% in Philly for McCain in the end?

For Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the first time a black man is the nominee of a major party so it's a whole new ball game.

So where was the Bradley Effect during the primaries?

Again, for those who obviously can't read, this is the General election. The Bradley Effect is less likely among Democratic voters. Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

If anything, I think Democratic voters would be more afraid of being percieved as racist, even if some harbor racist beliefs. The Bradley Effect refers to voters telling a pollster one thing and doing another. Again, the Muslim rumor gives racist voters a "plausible" cover story for not voting for Obama due to race. 

And Independents and Republicans aren't afraid of being perceived as racists?

I know what the Bradley Effect is, dude. The other half of your argument about the Muslim rumor is...uh...actually not a counter argument to what I'm saying.

I don't think they'd care if they're talking to a pollster they don't know. Things were different in the 70s and 80s, but racial strife has diminished considerably since then.

Furthermore, Republicans are more likely to oppose Obama because they disagree with his views, and won't be shy about saying so. While nobody reasonable would think it was racist to say "I'm voting for McCain because Obama is a tax and spend liberal," it would be racist to say "I'm not voting for that n-word." I simply don't buy your argument that large numbers of Republicans are saying they support Obama because they're afraid an anonymous pollster they don't know will percieve them as racist. 

My argument about the Muslim rumor is relavent because it provides a cover story for voting against Obama because of his race, thereby we should see a diminishing of the Bradley Effect.

[Sbane]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think they'd care if they're talking to a pollster they don't know. Things were different in the 70s and 80s, but racial strife has diminished considerably since then.

You'd be surprised.

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I never said large numbers. 

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And people probably still lie because of that. You're still seen as a bigot if you're not voting for him for that reason.