Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[J. J.]

Yeah, pretty laughable to think anyone could possibly do better than the colossus of a candidate that was John Kerry. He after all certainly had the pulse of white working class blue collar voters.

He wasn't George Bush. He had experience. He was white. He was Catholic. He didn't have a Rev. Wright scandal. He didn't make comments about guns and religion.

Sorry but those are huge factors here.

Statewide, I think the Wright association and Gog and guns comment, will hurt the Obama Campaign.  Palin may help the  campaign.  It will be close.


[

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

That isn't one of my rules.  It is that when someone says, "I don't look at the polls," they are lying.  A corollary is:  Never trust one poll.

We need PA polls after the bounces to see what is happening

[??????????]

Did you find Jeremiah Wright  abhorrant?

Yes. Certain remarks on his part but I've the good sense to know that Wright's rantings are not reflective of Obama's views on anything

If a Republican had been to CCC meeting for twenty years, campaigned and then "disavowed" them I doubt you'd give such a person a free pass.

[Eraserhead]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

lol

Good argument.

There isn't one to be had here, I don't think. You seem to be in the same mental state that you were in circa 2006. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree and wait for the election results... again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

[Sbane]

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

Not sure but the site's was Hillary +11.

[Sbane]

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

Not sure but the site's was Hillary +11.

Then again it was a democratic primary so many voters could guiltlessly say they were supporting Hillary. Now democrats who are voting based on race may have a tougher time telling pollsters they are going to vote republican.

[Boris]

Since 1948, Pennsylvania has been less (D) than the national average once - 1996. And even then, it was less (R) than the national average too because Perot and the low turnout fucked with the results. If the historical trend continues, McCain has a 0% chance of taking PA in a 49-49-2 election; just like how Obama would have a 0% chance of taking Missouri, Florida, Montana, Indiana, maybe even Ohio, etc. in such a scenario. Therefore, McCain would probably have to win nationally by a fairly considerable margin (most likely larger than the 2004 margin; it's difficult to imagine Obama doing THAT much worse relative to Kerry's numbers in PA) in order to win PA. And if that happens, all of us will know McCain will win heading into election day. And Ohio, Colorado, and maybe New Mexico would switch before it, making PA's status seemingly irrelevant - it definitely won't be the state that puts McCain over 270.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Since 1948, Pennsylvania has been less (D) than the national average once - 1996. And even then, it was less (R) than the national average too because Perot and the low turnout fucked with the results. If the historical trend continues, McCain has a 0% chance of taking PA in a 49-49-2 election; just like how Obama would have a 0% chance of taking Missouri, Florida, Montana, Indiana, maybe even Ohio, etc. in such a scenario. Therefore, McCain would probably have to win nationally by a fairly considerable margin (most likely larger than the 2004 margin; it's difficult to imagine Obama doing THAT much worse relative to Kerry's numbers in PA) in order to win PA. And if that happens, all of us will know McCain will win heading into election day. And Ohio, Colorado, and maybe New Mexico would switch before it, making PA's status seemingly irrelevant - it definitely won't be the state that puts McCain over 270.

All of the above is pretty much true except the odds of Ohio being more Democratic than the national average is certainly higher than 0%.

[Brittain33]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

So, these McCain-voting Democrats have been saying they support Obama in the polls because the election is so far away?

[cinyc]

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

Clinton +6.1
She won Pennsylvania by 9.2 points.

It was there.

[TeePee4Prez]

I would use some quotes here, but I think I'll make some general comments. 

It's clear Obama will lose about 3 Wards in NE Philly- 55th, 64th, and 66th which he will have to make up for elsewhere along with the possibility of other Wards that were so heavily Democratic for Kerry being a lot closer this time including my own 56th along with a few others.  If Obama for some miracle pulls off a narrow win in the 55th or 66th, I'd be happy.  64th is definitely a lost cause and I was actually surprised it went for Kerry.  .  If I were running for office here, you bet your ass I'd have supported Hillary in the primary.  Now some are saying PA polls are still going Obama.  I'm not calling uncle on thoseas much as Phil is.  Here's why..  For one, younger people in other parts of Philadelphia and the suburbs barring populist lower Bucks are much more enthusiastic about Obama.  It looks like in some breakdowns, some of the ultrared parts of PA, the "T", won't be as bright red this time around.  Obama has definitely energized some younger bases in other parts of the state which I think will narrowly carry him here.  The Philadelphia area has a lot of universities and it seems more graduates are staying put recently. 

[Brittain33]

Another article digs into white working-class women in Pennsylvania--this time, in Uniontown, Pa. Lots of quotes about the reaction of Hillary voters to Palin's speech.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-women7-2008sep07,0,7702239.story?page=1

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

lol

Good argument.

There isn't one to be had here, I don't think. You seem to be in the same mental state that you were in circa 2006. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree and wait for the election results... again.

And in 2006, one could argue that Casey was a much stronger candidate in PA and I'd concede that point. You have the same mental state that you had in 2006 and guess what? It's not 2006 anymore.

What if there was someone who said the factors were there, said Obama had great organization and ability to turn out voters?

He will have that but that doesn't affect the voters that he needs. You don't win PA by just taking the progressives in Philly and the suburbs.

Where was this almighty Bradley effect in the primary?

What was the RCP average before the vote?

...

That was the primary which only Dems could vote in. Welcome to the other 60% of the electorate.

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

So, these McCain-voting Democrats have been saying they support Obama in the polls because the election is so far away?

It's very weak support. I think many don't want to say that they're voting for the Republican but ultimately will for the number of reasons that I've mentioned.

[Keystone Phil]

I would use some quotes here, but I think I'll make some general comments. 

It's clear Obama will lose about 3 Wards in NE Philly- 55th, 64th, and 66th which he will have to make up for elsewhere along with the possibility of other Wards that were so heavily Democratic for Kerry being a lot closer this time including my own 56th along with a few others.

He's going to lose the 57th and very possibly the 65th (maybe not though since we do have a significant black population in the lower parts of the ward now). The 58th will be close.

 

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Ha. Yeah, exactly, a miracle is needed.

 

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And I can totally respect that argument but the problem is that they can't match the turnout of older voters in areas in the NE and Lower Bucks. If Obama loses the three wards that you mentioned, it's already very difficult for him to recover. I think he's going to lose more and run too close to McCain in others. Please remember that these are wards that Kerry won fairly easily.

Other wards to think about especially concerning the race/religion issues:

The 41st and 45th. How about dipping down into South Philly, too? Bush and Kerry were very close in the 26th. I believe it was the closest ward in the city in 2004! We're expecting to win there, too.

[anti_leftist]

After skimming through large parts of this thread, I'm inclined to believe that the PA posters are being overly-influenced by personal experiences and microtrends that they fail to see the much larger, more important picture. I'd compare it to a debate between someone looking at the stars from the ground on Earth to determine the overall composition of the galaxy (through superficial observations) and someone else on the outside of the entire galaxy actually inspecting and making precise measurements about what's in the galaxy. Who would you trust to come up with a more objective, reliable picture? In this analogy, being inside the galaxy (ie: PA) skews the observer's perspective, rather than providing greater first-hand insight, because the portion of the galaxy they're focusing on is so tiny (and not necessarily representative) compared to the entire body they're extrapolating to.


I'd suppose it's possible that some people in parts of Philly who are secretly opposing Obama might be indicative of a larger statewide trend that could doom Obama. But more likely, they're just one out of many minor independent trends or anamolies within a large, diverse state that probably won't be enough to tilt the outcome on their own. I mean, you can't possibly expect us to believe that you can gauge a state with millions of voters based on personal experience and anecdotal evidence unless there's some other concrete data to back it up. EVERY poll shows Obama up by 4-6%. This is a concrete, statewide trend. I don't deny that the Bradley Effect could come into play, but I find it hard to believe it could be on the scale required to influence the result when there are so many other factors working in the other direction (for Obama).

[Keystone Phil]

I'd suppose it's possible that some people in parts of Philly who are secretly opposing Obama might be indicative of a larger statewide trend that could doom Obama. But more likely, they're just one out of many minor independent trends or anamolies within a large, diverse state that probably won't be enough to tilt the outcome on their own. I mean, you can't possibly expect us to believe that you can gauge a state with millions of voters based on personal experience and anecdotal evidence unless there's some other concrete data to back it up. EVERY poll shows Obama up by 4-6%. This is a concrete, statewide trend. I don't deny that the Bradley Effect could come into play, but I find it hard to believe it could be on the scale required to influence the result when there are so many other factors working in the other direction (for Obama).

But this simply isn't anecdotal. I want explained to me how keeps his six point lead when those operating his ground game are conceding that he's very weak up here. This isn't just the PA posters saying it. Read the article. They're not going to push Obama as hard because they know that he's toxic up here. Without an area (heavily populated, too) that Kerry won with 60% of the vote, Obama is done.

[Ty440]

Being from the area this article refers to I can say this.  Yeah, a lot of older Democrats won't vote for Obama based on race.  However, I don't think it'll be as bad as people think because well... McCain's policies just plain suck plus the fact that a black candidate, Michael Nutter, actually beat a Northeast Philly white Republican by a margin greater than John Kerry beat George Bush even here.  I'm thinking Obama won't pull Kerry's numbers here, especially amongst the older voters, but there are some younger voters going for Obama even though they voted for Bush in 2004.  Unfortunately for the Dems, a lot of people here are old and yes a bit racist, but I still think McCain will pull off the 66th Ward as described in the article and definitely the 55th and 64th as well, but it won't be a landslide.  Kerry won all Philly wards.

Except this isn't a Mayoral race. People have come to accept a black man being Mayor here. This is different. Plus, our Republican candidate was...uh...yeah.

Obama losing any NE wards hurts badly. He's going to lose a few. He's going to come out of Philly weaker than Kerry and Gore. He's going to lose the state.

This is exactly what I have been talking about and people have laughed it off. Maybe some people will think twice next time.

The same for cuyahoga county  which I live next to in Ohio, He is gonna come out of cuyahoga no where near the victory margin that Kerry and Gore had...I'm  trying to look in the state where he can make it up..I just don't see it coming together in Ohio for  Obama

I think in about 3 weeks we will be able to know or a least have a grasp on who will win this election..The public is out of it's long Summer  slumber people are finally paying attention. I'm eagerly awaiting a Pennsylvania poll now that the conventions are over and the VPs have been selected

[TeePee4Prez]

I would use some quotes here, but I think I'll make some general comments. 

It's clear Obama will lose about 3 Wards in NE Philly- 55th, 64th, and 66th which he will have to make up for elsewhere along with the possibility of other Wards that were so heavily Democratic for Kerry being a lot closer this time including my own 56th along with a few others.

He's going to lose the 57th and very possibly the 65th (maybe not though since we do have a significant black population in the lower parts of the ward now). The 58th will be close.

 

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Ha. Yeah, exactly, a miracle is needed.

 

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And I can totally respect that argument but the problem is that they can't match the turnout of older voters in areas in the NE and Lower Bucks. If Obama loses the three wards that you mentioned, it's already very difficult for him to recover. I think he's going to lose more and run too close to McCain in others. Please remember that these are wards that Kerry won fairly easily.

Other wards to think about especially concerning the race/religion issues:

The 41st and 45th. How about dipping down into South Philly, too? Bush and Kerry were very close in the 26th. I believe it was the closest ward in the city in 2004! We're expecting to win there, too.

I forgot about the 26th, but here's the thing- There are a lot of blacks in that Ward and the whites there are already pretty Republican.  I call tossup/tilts R.

The 57th has a lot of apartments and is pretty Democratic.  We're not losing that one, but I agree it will be closer.  Lean D

An interesting one is the 63rd- very liberal northern parts, very conservative southern parts.  Kerry still won though. Lean D

41st and 45th are good to mention as well, BUT the 45th is far more minority than it ever was and now there's an influx of more progressive yuppie type voters.  41st is just too Democratic, but agree it will be closer. 41st- Likely D, 45th- Likely/Strong D

56th, 58th, and 63rd will probably be the least affected by racial issues with regards to voting, but I can see a slight shift.

56th- Likely/Strong D
58th- Likely D

64th- Strong R.  Race is a HUGE factor here and most people are homeowners.
55th- Likely R.  Lower parts of the Ward are changing and could see an upset for Obama,
66th- Lean/Likely R.  Race not as strong of a factor as 64th.  Again like the 57th, a decent number of apartments.

There will definitely be a homeowner/apartment difference here more than you may think.

[Keystone Phil]

I forgot about the 26th, but here's the thing- There are a lot of blacks in that Ward and the whites there are already pretty Republican.  I call tossup/tilts R.

Fair enough. Still...a loss is a loss. Obama can't afford to lose whole wards in his strongest part of the state.

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But there are also a lot of row home/single home Dems closer to me around Academy Road. Just remember that.

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Eh...I wouldn't say very liberal northern areas. I'll say that Obama wins it but...again...closer than 2004. More problems for Obama...

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41st isn't "too Democratic" when you consider the type of white voters there. You know what I'm talking about. They aren't going near Obama. I'll say that it might be a bit close because of black areas of the ward.

The 45th is another area (John Taylor Country) where the white voters are not happy with the Obama type.

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Not race issues but Obama will struggle because of areas like Somerton and even in parts of Buselton.

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We more than make up for the apartments. I'll agree that that will help Obama but not nearly enough especially not in the 66th.

[Stranger in a strange land]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That's why I think the Muslim smear was devised as a cover for racists to avoid having to admit they were voting against Obama because of his race. Saying "I'm not voting for that Muslim slime" is more socially acceptable than "I'm not voting for that n*****"

[Ty440]

I'm thinking of the Bonanza theme  as I type this.........


Sen. Barack Obama slips up on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos and refers to his Muslim faith

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKGdkqfBICw&eurl

LMAO  at  Stephanopoulos  correcting him...


Lets see how well that's gonna play in the "T"  of Pennsylvania

This dude is a gaffe machine gaffe after gaffe after gaffe.....Memo to Obama's Campaign don't let him speak or do interviews unless their is a teleprompter involved

[Keystone Phil]

This article indicates that working class Dems who are voting against Obama because of his race are rather open about it: I would be surprised if they felt the need to lie to a pollster. I'd be surprised if there's a Bradley Effect; there wasn't one in the primaries.

That doesn't mean that they aren't lying to pollsters. Most people aren't talking to reporters on a daily basis. They're not as open to strangers about it.

[Sam Spade]

Phil, just because Obama isn't going to perform that well in NE Philly as Kerry or Gore did (and I tend to agree) doesn't mean that Obama's dead in PA.  It's only one small section and might get outweighed by higher black turnout in the city (though black turnout has been pretty high to begin with).

In other words, believe the polling and not your own personal anecdotes.  There may be some type of Bradley effect, but we have no clue how it'll play out and whether it really makes the difference.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, just because Obama isn't going to perform that well in NE Philly as Kerry or Gore did (and I tend to agree) doesn't mean that Obama's dead in PA.  It's only one small section and might get outweighed by higher black turnout in the city (though black turnout has been pretty high to begin with).

When you're losing areas that Kerry and Gore won with over 60% of the vote, you're in some deep trouble. That's just in Philly. Wait until we get further out west (especially in the southwest).

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This isn't just personal anecdotes. I'm going to believe the Democratic leaders themselves when they say that they can't even connect with their voters on this one. When they can't have a successful GOTV effort like they did for Kerry, they have problems.