Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[Sbane]

I will continue to trust the polls. I never thought Philly was going to give the same margin for Obama as it did for Kerry or Gore. It could still happen depending on how blacks voted in 2004, because we know they will give 95%+ to Obama and they will turn out heavily. But he will lose ground in NE philly and Bucks which he must make up somewhere else in the state. I would guess it is in Amish country and the phila burbs. I want to see some poll where they break down their results by area and compare it to Kerry. Has anyone seen anything like that for PA?

Obama is going to make up his loses in NE Philly and Bucks county in...Amish Country? Seriously?

Uh...yeah...

I meant Lancaster and Chester counties. Those seem to be trending democrat. See the thing is that you guys keep saying Obama is losing everywhere in the state but the polls seem to indicate otherwise. Is there some huge bradley effect going on or something?

[Eraserhead]

If Obama doesn't carry PA, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.

Instead of addressing what your own leaders in the state say, you continue to dismiss the idea of him losing the state.

I trust the polling more than my so-called "leaders'.

[Eraserhead]

If Obama doesn't carry PA, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.

Instead of addressing what your own leaders in the state say, you continue to dismiss the idea of him losing the state.

Almost as bad as continually dismissing every single poll taken in the state since April.

Because I'm actually discussing real factors instead of polls taken months before the election?

I haven't continued to dismiss them. I just refuse to believe that that defines this race.

Real factors? The polling isn't real? It didn't lie to us in '06, Phil.

[Nym90]

If Obama doesn't carry PA, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.

Instead of addressing what your own leaders in the state say, you continue to dismiss the idea of him losing the state.

Almost as bad as continually dismissing every single poll taken in the state since April.

Because I'm actually discussing real factors instead of polls taken months before the election?

I haven't continued to dismiss them. I just refuse to believe that that defines this race.

I fail to see why these factors, if they are real, aren't being picked up on in any of the polls out there. You'd think there'd be at least one somewhere along the line that agreed with you.

Now you could argue that while McCain is behind in PA now, he'll come back to win it. Obviously no one knows what will happen between now and election day. That'd be a more plausible argument than violating one of J.J.'s rules of elections.

[Keystone Phil]

I will continue to trust the polls. I never thought Philly was going to give the same margin for Obama as it did for Kerry or Gore. It could still happen depending on how blacks voted in 2004, because we know they will give 95%+ to Obama and they will turn out heavily. But he will lose ground in NE philly and Bucks which he must make up somewhere else in the state. I would guess it is in Amish country and the phila burbs. I want to see some poll where they break down their results by area and compare it to Kerry. Has anyone seen anything like that for PA?

Obama is going to make up his loses in NE Philly and Bucks county in...Amish Country? Seriously?

Uh...yeah...

I meant Lancaster and Chester counties. Those seem to be trending democrat. See the thing is that you guys keep saying Obama is losing everywhere in the state but the polls seem to indicate otherwise. Is there some huge bradley effect going on or something?

Obama will not make up a loss in NE Philly and Bucks with Lancaster and Chester. And, yes, Bradley Effect will be big here.

If Obama doesn't carry PA, I'll eat my shoe. Seriously.

Instead of addressing what your own leaders in the state say, you continue to dismiss the idea of him losing the state.

I trust the polling more than my so-called "leaders'.

...

Yeah, you're right. Don't trust the people that run the ground game. Don't trust the people that make up the Democratic machine and GOTV operations on Election day. The polls are enough to get your a victory.  

Real factors? The polling isn't real? It didn't lie to us in '06, Phil.

Polls don't give you votes. Just watch your GOTV effort. You can keep laughing at me all you want. We'll see what happens on November 4th. Just remember that saying, "The polls said we were winning!" doesn't turn out voters. Polling doesn't make the race; voters do.

[Keystone Phil]

I fail to see why these factors, if they are real, aren't being picked up on in any of the polls out there. You'd think there'd be at least one somewhere along the line that agreed with you.

So Obama will take PA by seven points, right?

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

[Sbane]

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

[Nym90]

I fail to see why these factors, if they are real, aren't being picked up on in any of the polls out there. You'd think there'd be at least one somewhere along the line that agreed with you.

So Obama will take PA by seven points, right?

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

I think there's a pretty good chance of him winning it by 5-7 points. If he does 5 points better than Kerry nationally, which I think he will, he'll most likely see a 3-5 point improvement in PA also.

Now if McCain does 3 or more points better than Bush nationally, then yes he'll probably carry PA. So if you're predicting a 5 point McCain win, then a prediction of PA for McCain is reasonable.

[Ban my account ffs!]

So Obama will take PA by seven points, right?

Eight if you wanna get technical

[Keystone Phil]

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

[Keystone Phil]

I think there's a pretty good chance of him winning it by 5-7 points. If he does 5 points better than Kerry nationally, which I think he will, he'll most likely see a 3-5 point improvement in PA also.

Now if McCain does 3 or more points better than Bush nationally, then yes he'll probably carry PA. So if you're predicting a 5 point McCain win, then a prediction of PA for McCain is reasonable.

Too bad elections don't always work based on the assinine averages theory.

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

Yet I still haven't been told how/where exactly Obama can expand on previous Democratic victories. You can't just say, "It'll happen because it just will!"

[Nym90]

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

Yeah, pretty laughable to think anyone could possibly do better than the colossus of a candidate that was John Kerry. He after all certainly had the pulse of white working class blue collar voters.

Phil, if you're right, I'll be the first to give you props. Just as I would've if Santorum had pulled it off against all odds as well.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I fail to see why these factors, if they are real, aren't being picked up on in any of the polls out there. You'd think there'd be at least one somewhere along the line that agreed with you.

So Obama will take PA by seven points, right?

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

I think there's a pretty good chance of him winning it by 5-7 points. If he does 5 points better than Kerry nationally, which I think he will, he'll most likely see a 3-5 point improvement in PA also.

Now if McCain does 3 or more points better than Bush nationally, then yes he'll probably carry PA. So if you're predicting a 5 point McCain win, then a prediction of PA for McCain is reasonable.

If Obama does 5 points better than Kerry nationally, I'd see Pennsylvania doing 1 or 2 points better than Kerry.

The coalition that allows Democrats to win in PA are not the "perfect" combination.  There are too many older, blue collar whites that are not the most informed, but are very willing to vote... as long as it's not for that Brack Oba..wha? guy.

Barack will outperform Kerry in the south, plains, west, and Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota.

McCain will outperform Kerry in the entire Northeast and the upper south.

[Sbane]

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

Demographics change buddy. Democrats have such a huge registration advantage in both PA and OH that they can afford some leakage. How much that leakage is, is of course the most important question. Every poll today will show you that somewhere near 92% of republicans are supporting Mccain while around 80% of democrats are supporting Obama. That is why the polls are close.

[Eraserhead]

Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

I'm not saying that Obama's going to win PA in a blowout, but come on, can you honestly say that you wouldn't be pretty shocked if McCain carried the state?

[Ban my account ffs!]

Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

I'm not saying that Obama's going to win PA in a blowout, but come on, can you honestly say that you wouldn't be pretty shocked if McCain carried the state?

Yeah, I would be shocked... but Pennsylvania should not be taken for granted at all.  Neither should Michigan.

Obama is really going to have to hit hard in PA, OH, and MI.  PA and MI are must wins for him and OH would put him over the top.

It's good that he has established a presence in North Dakota and Montana... and he very well could carry Montana... but let's weigh electoral politics here.

McCain is putting us on the defensive in PA and MI while we're putting him on the defensive in NM, CO, NV, VA, and IA.

We can win without Ohio... without PA?  Not a chance.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, pretty laughable to think anyone could possibly do better than the colossus of a candidate that was John Kerry. He after all certainly had the pulse of white working class blue collar voters.

He wasn't George Bush. He had experience. He was white. He was Catholic. He didn't have a Rev. Wright scandal. He didn't make comments about guns and religion.

Sorry but those are huge factors here.

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And that's the problem. Everyone here feels justified in thinking that Obama will win easily because I am convinced that McCain will win. That's fine. I can take that. Just realize that this isn't Casey vs. Santorum.

Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

Not quite the same thing but we could debate that another time.  

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Uh, no, I wouldn't be because it isn't shocking. No one has laid out for me why it would be shocking.

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Uh...that's what I am arguing. I just don't think Obama is up by as much as the polls say.

Well that is reasonable I suppose. So perhaps the average of Obama +5 is closer to +2 or 3 because of Bradley? If the election is close I think that PA will very likely be close.

PA will definitely be close. This really shouldn't even be up for debate.

Obama is struggling with the base of the party here  - white, blue collar, Catholic voters - and your ground leaders are actually saying it! You can't win PA without them. Yet many here seem to believe that he'll win by more than Kerry did!

Demographics change buddy. Democrats have such a huge registration advantage in both PA and OH that they can afford some leakage. How much that leakage is, is of course the most important question. Every poll today will show you that somewhere near 92% of republicans are supporting Mccain while around 80% of democrats are supporting Obama. That is why the polls are close.

Demographics changed that much since 2004. Wow. Interesting.

[Eraserhead]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

Would you not be shocked if Obama won Missouri? I would be, at this point.

[cinyc]

Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

I'm not saying that Obama's going to win PA in a blowout, but come on, can you honestly say that you wouldn't be pretty shocked if McCain carried the state?

While as of right now, I don't think it's going to happen, I wouldn't be shocked if McCain won Pennsylvania.  Remember - Kerry only won the state by 2 points in 2004.  Pennsylvania was closer than Michigan.  Yet everyone calls Michigan a battleground state.

Pennsylvania has the third highest percentage of senior citizens in the country after Florida and West Virginia.  That's usually not a good demographic for Obama - and the one that's perhaps most susceptible to the Bradley/Wilder effect.

[Sbane]

Demographics changed that much since 2004. Wow. Interesting.

Different people could be supporting different candidates out there than in 04. Maybe for every vote Obama loses in these blue collar neighborhoods, he gains one in a white collar neighborhood. I am not saying that is how it is but it is a possibility. An individual poll may be incorrect but when your candidate hasn't led for months in any poll, you have to say he is losing. See in 2004 I convinced myself that Kerry was going to win since I could tell he was doing much better than Gore in my upper middle class mostly white suburban town in the bay area. And if you look at the swings you will see Kerry did much better in the bay area, but he still lost. Even California slightly trended towards Bush. So all I am trying to say is that Obama could be gaining votes in a part of the state that might be unexpected but that just might help Obama skate by in november.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

[Sbane]

Uh huh... well maybe Harry is really right about his latest MS race too. I hear they have a good ground game down there.

I'm not saying that Obama's going to win PA in a blowout, but come on, can you honestly say that you wouldn't be pretty shocked if McCain carried the state?

While as of right now, I don't think it's going to happen, I wouldn't be shocked if McCain won Pennsylvania.  Remember - Kerry only won the state by 2 points in 2004.  Pennsylvania was closer than Michigan.  Yet everyone calls Michigan a battleground state.

Pennsylvania has the third highest percentage of senior citizens in the country after Florida and West Virginia.  That's usually not a good demographic for Obama - and the one that's perhaps most susceptible to the Bradley/Wilder effect.

Well Kerry won the state by 2 points even while losing nationally by 2. So I would say Mccain at least needs to win by 3 points nationally before he will win PA. I will agree that PA will trend towards republicans this year compared to the national average.

[Eraserhead]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

lol

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

lol

Good argument.

[War on Want]

Phil, it would be shocking because he has trailed in every single poll since God knows when...

...in polls taken three months before the election.

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Yes because the factors aren't there.

What if there was someone who said the factors were there, said Obama had great organization and ability to turn out voters?