Biden gets mixed welcome in Philly.. Good read from Philadelphia Daily News

[TeePee4Prez]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

[Sbane]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

Yes since the primaries I have always felt PA was a crucial state for Obama in the general. All this favorable polling has put my mind to ease but you are correct that PA,OH and other states with high working class dems with racial problems will have a bradley effect. I think nationally it might not be so pronounced but in these states it could account for 2-3 points. But considering PA has been polling about d+4-5 for a while now I am not so worried. I bet Obama will do a little worse than Kerry in parts of philly and western pa but will make it up with the philly burbs and certain parts of the T. It very well could be a similar result to 2004 even with Obama winning the election. 

[J. J.]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

Yes since the primaries I have always felt PA was a crucial state for Obama in the general. All this favorable polling has put my mind to ease but you are correct that PA,OH and other states with high working class dems with racial problems will have a bradley effect. I think nationally it might not be so pronounced but in these states it could account for 2-3 points. But considering PA has been polling about d+4-5 for a while now I am not so worried. I bet Obama will do a little worse than Kerry in parts of philly and western pa but will make it up with the philly burbs and certain parts of the T. It very well could be a similar result to 2004 even with Obama winning the election. 

In some of 'burbs, not, Bucks and possibly Montco could be problems.

[Sbane]

Phil there could be a bradley effect amongst independents but I don't see why there would be one amongst republicans. There could be hundreds of reasons why republicans are voting against Obama. If a democrat is voting against Obama then it gets a little tricky. I think there was a slight bradley effect in Pennsylvania during the primaries and I will expect it on election day as well.

There is going to be a Bradley effect amongst older whites in the area, I can guarantee that.  However, it won't be as pronounced as it was in the 1980s, Northeast Philly being no exception.  The Bradley effect will however be stronger in some wards than other and my call is the 64th will surely flip from D 2004 to R 2008 because of it.  I am also calling for 1 or 2 out of the 26th, 55th or 66th to flip as well.  There will even be a Bradley effect in the more Democratic wards such as the 41st, 58th and 65th as well.  I have rethought my process here.  One thing I have noticed in most recent elections here is the Democrats have always been perceived as the "black man's party."  2000 and 2004 were no different.  It has always looked worse on the surface for the Democrats here in the months leading up to the election.  Guess what has happened in the end ultimately?  Yeah, I have bragging rights, but Phil does make some interesting arguments.       

Yes since the primaries I have always felt PA was a crucial state for Obama in the general. All this favorable polling has put my mind to ease but you are correct that PA,OH and other states with high working class dems with racial problems will have a bradley effect. I think nationally it might not be so pronounced but in these states it could account for 2-3 points. But considering PA has been polling about d+4-5 for a while now I am not so worried. I bet Obama will do a little worse than Kerry in parts of philly and western pa but will make it up with the philly burbs and certain parts of the T. It very well could be a similar result to 2004 even with Obama winning the election. 

In some of 'burbs, not, Bucks and possibly Montco could be problems.

If Montco is a problem then Obama is finished but seeing the latest polls I will say it's not too bad. Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

[Keystone Phil]

Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

Not to pick on you specifically but if people are admitting that then I have absolutely no idea how they can argue that this state is still very likely to go for Obama. These are areas that went for Kerry with over 60% of the vote. That's never going to be simply cancelled out by increased black turnout and more support among the white progressives of the SE.

[Sbane]

Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

Not to pick on you specifically but if people are admitting that then I have absolutely no idea how they can argue that this state is still very likely to go for Obama. These are areas that went for Kerry with over 60% of the vote. That's never going to be simply cancelled out by increased black turnout and more support among the white progressives of the SE.

Well I am not saying that Obama will lose those areas per se but rather get a lower margin out of there. I expect him to do better than Kerry in the more high income area of the SE but the question is whether that will be enough to overcome the loss in the more working class areas. The problems do exist for Obama but exactly how much we won't know till november.

[TeePee4Prez]

Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

Not to pick on you specifically but if people are admitting that then I have absolutely no idea how they can argue that this state is still very likely to go for Obama. These are areas that went for Kerry with over 60% of the vote. That's never going to be simply cancelled out by increased black turnout and more support among the white progressives of the SE.

Ehh, Mayfair was in the ballpark of 54-55% for Kerry and there were some Bush pockets in 2004.    I don't think the effect is going to be as pronounced as people think.  You are definitely overstating the racial effect in this area, but are clearly understating Biden.  Joe Biden has been known here for years.  Palin is the flavor of the week.

[Keystone Phil]

Bucks will be a problem though. That whole area from northeast philly up through levittown and those working class areas around there.

Not to pick on you specifically but if people are admitting that then I have absolutely no idea how they can argue that this state is still very likely to go for Obama. These are areas that went for Kerry with over 60% of the vote. That's never going to be simply cancelled out by increased black turnout and more support among the white progressives of the SE.

Ehh, Mayfair was in the ballpark of 54-55% for Kerry and there were some Bush pockets in 2004.    I don't think the effect is going to be as pronounced as people think.  You are definitely overstating the racial effect in this area, but are clearly understating Biden.  Joe Biden has been known here for years.  Palin is the flavor of the week.

You are definitely overstating a rather marginalized running mate and underestimating racial voting.

Biden isn't as well known as you'd love for him to be. Even if he was and Palin was just seen as the flavor of the week (which is going on three weeks now, chief...) it still boils down to McCain and Obama and Obama himself still struggles.

Mayfair is just one area. Nice try though. Overall, in the Northeast, Kerry hit 60%.

[J. J.]

I'll prefer to wait until I see some good polling of PA.  Biden is a definite plus, but what is the Palin effect.  I don't have an answer.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't have an answer.

Not to sound rude but that is getting incredibly annoying.

[J. J.]

I don't have an answer.

Not to sound rude but that is getting incredibly annoying.

Well, I don't have one, and for now, no one else does.

We have something new in the equation, Sarah Palin.  That has potential for driving up GOP votes from the Phila 'burbs to the Ohio border, but note the word "potential."

We're in new territory folks.