Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Actual:

				samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.15%	(51.06%	51.22%	51.17%	50.85%)
McCain	44.52%	(44.36%	44.39%	44.72%	44.89%)

I haven't updated this for a few days, but I should...

Clearly, a strong McCain sample entered today in comparison to the previous numbers.  Determining whether it is an outlier or a trend will take a few days to sort out.

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.87%	(52.07%	52.14%	51.46%	51.15%)
McCain	44.64%	(43.51%	43.92%	44.24%	44.52%)

Can we have a poll to see how many people actually understand what Sam's on about with these figures?

K - they are just the three-day *unrounded* averages provided by Rasmussen for each of the last five days.

[J. J.]

One day's worth of one poll isn't enough to make a decision.

[ChrisFromNJ]

One day's worth of one poll isn't enough to make a decision.

*faints*

J.J., what has gotten into you, my dear fellow?

[Eraserhead]

Well, McCain seems to be on the move in all of the tracking polls today.

[J. J.]

One day's worth of one poll isn't enough to make a decision.

*faints*

J.J., what has gotten into you, my dear fellow?

If we see a margin shrinkage in Gallup, I will change that.  I've been the guy posting, "I don't know," an awful lot.

Some of the "lesser" tracking polls show the same thing, but one of them, I expect, is due to a high Obama sample.

[Reds4]

McCain is on the move today.. but these interviews are before the debate... thats the skeptic in me kicking in I guess.. we'll see.

[Lunar]

Wednesday - October 8, 2008:

Obama - 51% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

Crap, we lost

[J. J.]

Wednesday - October 8, 2008:

Obama - 51% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

Crap, we lost

Not matched by Gallup.  One has a bad sample, I suspect.  Is it this one or Gallup?

[Eraserhead]

Gallup and Rasmussen are at odds again.

This is almost like when my parents used to fight.

[Rowan]

Thursday- October 9, 2008
Obama 50%(-1)
McCain 45%(nc)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Thursday- October 9, 2008
Obama 50%(-1)
McCain 45%(nc)

makes no sense given McCain's horrible campaign.  let's see what Gallup has to say

[BlueSwan]

Thursday- October 9, 2008
Obama 50%(-1)
McCain 45%(nc)

I'm not liking it. Obama ought to increase his lead after the debate not decrease it.

[J. J.]

Either this poll or the Gallup has a bad sample in the mix.

[Zarn]

Gallup is competing with DailyKos for who shows the biggest Obama lovefest.

Everyone else is closer to Rasmussen.

[Sam Spade]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.48%	(50.87%	52.07%	52.14%	51.46%)
McCain	45.00%	(44.64%	43.51%	43.92%	44.24%)

[ChrisFromNJ]

.02% is the difference between 50 and 51 in this poll?

Let's not overreact, folks.

[Kalimantan]

Gallup is competing with DailyKos for who shows the biggest Obama lovefest.

Everyone else is closer to Rasmussen.

Well, Obama's numbers are similar - Gallup at 52, Kos at 51, Ras at 50. The big gaps are in McCain's numbers, varying from 40 - 45. That is probably due to differences in pushing leaners? I'm guessing McCain's numbers are bound to rise as unenthusiastic Republicans realise how close an Obama presidency is. So I'd go with Ras right now.

Plus, Ras and Kos use a LV model and Gallup a RV model, if that matters at all.

[Zarn]

The problem with your theory is that Gallup had Obama up further, when Mccain was gaining ground in other polls.

[J. J.]

.02% is the difference between 50 and 51 in this poll?

Let's not overreact, folks.

That's possibly your best post ever.

Either Rasmussen or Gallup has one bad sample, we don't know which one yet.  We should know by Saturday, if not tomorrow.  Let's chill out until then.

[cinyc]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.48%	(50.87%	52.07%	52.14%	51.46%)
McCain	45.00%	(44.64%	43.51%	43.92%	44.24%)

Sam - can you please explain which of the numbers is which:

1) 50.48%-45.00%  (3-Day Average?)
2) 50.87%-44.64%  (Wednesday sample?)
3) 52.07%-43.51% (Sunday sample?)
4) 52.14%-43.92%  (Monday sample?)
5) 51.46%-44.24%   (Tuesday sample?)

[minionofmidas]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.48%	(50.87%	52.07%	52.14%	51.46%)
McCain	45.00%	(44.64%	43.51%	43.92%	44.24%)

Sam - can you please explain which of the numbers is which:

1) 50.48%-45.00%  (3-Day Average?)
2) 50.87%-44.64%  (Wednesday sample?)
3) 52.07%-43.51% (Sunday sample?)
4) 52.14%-43.92%  (Monday sample?)
5) 51.46%-44.24%   (Tuesday sample?)

Current 3-day average, previous 3-day average, etc. There are no single-day samples in that at all.

[Sam Spade]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.48%	(50.87%	52.07%	52.14%	51.46%)
McCain	45.00%	(44.64%	43.51%	43.92%	44.24%)

Sam - can you please explain which of the numbers is which:

1) 50.48%-45.00%  (3-Day Average?)
2) 50.87%-44.64%  (Wednesday sample?)
3) 52.07%-43.51% (Sunday sample?)
4) 52.14%-43.92%  (Monday sample?)
5) 51.46%-44.24%   (Tuesday sample?)

Current 3-day average, previous 3-day average, etc. There are no single-day samples in that at all.

Correct.

[Sam Spade]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

[Keystone Phil]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this isn't true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well... the forces of darkness still have a chance at this thing...

Fixed yon post