Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Lunar]

It's dangerous to view poll results as one-dimensional, or even two-dimensional.  Only when there is a single huge event (and no counteracting event) and a massive switch in poll numbers can we conclusively guess at the causation.

I've noticed "Oh, opposing X candidate should be this higher, but in this poll he is less than that so he should be worried!" comments by both sides.  That is called massive spin and should be frowned upon except in exceptional circumstances, none of which have occurred.  If anyone ever finds themselves making this argument, you're probably wrong and cherry-picking data.

I'm not trying to spin things for Obama.  I don't think he's in a great position right now and I don't see a great adeptness at handling the Palin pick.  I'm just saying, it's ridiculouso to take a single pollster's daily numbers and try and turn them into something analytical except when it's unquestionable obvious (Obama's spike during the convention).

Political views of easily influenced voters are complex and hard to discern, and the polling data itself is complex and hard to discern.  I mean, we take stabs here and there, but to try and reach broad conclusions this early on is just silly.  I know it makes me sound pro-Obama here, but I've recently seen arguments that McCain should be significantly further ahead on this forum than he is currently posting in the daily tracking.  Why are we so prone to mimicking campaigns' own low-expectations game here on this forum?  "I may be down 7, but I should be down 12, so this is actually looking pretty good!" 

Take the numbers, digest them, but no need to turn them into something that they aren't and compare them to imaginary numbers as to what they should be.

[Lunar]

538 did a similar algorithm

[Lunar]

I googled "midweek bounce" and "weekend bounce" to see if there's been anyone else that has theorized about this large effect and the only two results were this thread

[Lunar]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

Since I like to post cute & annoying images in these threads of quicksand/missiles to sum up my feelings:

[Lunar]

Unfortunately,

Oh but you just. 

Well, Obama did gain a point in the Gallup.

[Lunar]

Remember that it's not a favorable/unfavorable question, but a matter of degree that's simplified (I believe).  So you have "very favorable" and "somewhat favorable."  I would go as far as to say that most Obama voters that have an overall "favorable" opinion of McCain are NOT up for grabs and same with McCain voters for Obama.  And, as has been pointed out, McCain would need an enormous majority of these voters to eek out a win.

However, that 17% number misleads you.  Sure, some voters have a favorable opinion of both candidates, but so must another number have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates - some unknown amount of them might still be up for grabs as well.

hmmm

[Lunar]

You guys are just going over the talking points, again.

My problem with Obama is not that he is a Dem. It is that he is Obama. I use to think he would be okay as president, certainly better than Hillary. Only recently have I found out that he is much, much worse. I use to think she was more authoritarian and corrupt. I was dead wrong. I let him make me belief he was someone who wasn't purely political. I was dead wrong, again. The more I learn, the more I realize he is the worst possible choice the Dems had.

Somebody's getting bitter and hard-edged due to the rigors of the campaign.  I think you need a break, son.

If you think the upper class can support both the bailout and fund new social programs, you are living with a blindfold. You do realize that hurts businesses, right? You cannot cripple the top (in poor economic conditions, especially), and expect the economy to grow. It is not going to work, and middle income will be taxed to make up for the lack of income. So now everyone is taxed more heavily (except the poor). Then more people need government services, because they have no money, so they aren't acting as consumers, and they lose their jobs (since no one is consuming as much).

And when was the last time a politician, let alone a president, actually passed all of their campaign promises?

428.... B.C.?

When was the last time a president said "screw you" to all of their economic PhD's?   Oh, I guess McCain and Hillary already did that with their gas tax idea (when they could not find one credible expert, even when repeatedly challenged, to get behind their idea), but besides that

And how much control does a president have besides that?   Anyway, just relax.  Obama's not worse than any other Democrat, but it's pretty easy to let the tone of the political campaign convince you of that.  In fact, I think he's more economically conservative than most, note how fake he sounds when he talks about "fair" trade.

[Lunar]

...in other news

Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Yay this!

The trend!

[Lunar]

Wednesday - October 8, 2008:

Obama - 51% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

Crap, we lost

[Lunar]

That's no true.  The Bradley Effect encompasses every reason why a candidate could be overpolled because of race.   Lying to pollsters is only one theory of one aspect of the effect.

[Lunar]

Well, J.J. is correct that if someone who says "I'm voting for McCain" to the pollster, that is not part of the Bradley effect, and I think that's what he meant.  It doesn't matter if they think Obama's an uppity negro or if they like McCain's haircut.  But he is incorrect in identifying what the B.E. is.

[Lunar]

The best thing they could do is stop paying their staff per-registration form and upon checking forms, if one staff member has a lot of clearly fake registration forms and fails to point them out, fire that person immediately.

Then ACORN could file them still to the registration office but with a big red flag saying look into these.  Then they would have some credibility

[Lunar]

Sam, is this the only time that Rasmussen's sample has been more pro-Obama than Gallup's topline RV model?

[Lunar]

Is Barack Obama the most popular black man in the history of the United States?

who disapproves of Wayne Brady?