Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

1.  Return them to the addressee.

What purpose would that have, other than wasting time and testing for undeliverable addresses, which the elections department does anyway?

But then ACORN doesn't sent out false registration.

The phone books could be check via a comparison with current registrations; if checked against a data base, the multiple addresses could be caught.

Having someone else other than the phone book entry registered at an address is so ridiculously common, I don't see what purpose that would serve.

You can check them against current registrations (or the ones you've entered).  Let's say that I don't realize that I'm registered and ACORN gives me a form, which I fill out.  My name is already on the voter list.  They can cross check it and determine that I'm already registered.

[Alcon]

But then ACORN doesn't sent out false registration.

Even if they did bounce back, they would still be legally obligated to deliver it, I'd think; an inactive registration (bounce-back, at least in this state) is still a valid registration come election day.

This varies by state, but again, I have a lot of discomfort with an independent group taking the authority to parse which registrations are fake.  That's not always possible while meeting a registration deadline, either.

You can check them against current registrations (or the ones you've entered).  Let's say that I don't realize that I'm registered and ACORN gives me a form, which I fill out.  My name is already on the voter list.  They can cross check it and determine that I'm already registered.

Right, but I don't see how that involves the phonebook?

[J. J.]

But then ACORN doesn't sent out false registration.

Even if they did bounce back, they would still be legally obligated to deliver it, I'd think; an inactive registration (bounce-back, at least in this state) is still a valid registration come election day.

This varies by state, but again, I have a lot of discomfort with an independent group taking the authority to parse which registrations are fake.  That's not always possible while meeting a registration deadline, either.

I have more of a problem with a group, without checks, sending in false registration forms.

You can check them against current registrations (or the ones you've entered).  Let's say that I don't realize that I'm registered and ACORN gives me a form, which I fill out.  My name is already on the voter list.  They can cross check it and determine that I'm already registered.

Right, but I don't see how that involves the phonebook?

Not the phone book, but the registered voters list.  If someone who isn't registered is registered from the phone book, it makes a difference if the person is actually registered to vote.  That is the prime thing you wish to catch.

[Alcon]

I have more of a problem with a group, without checks, sending in false registration forms.

Yes, it sucks taxpayer money has to be used to flag registrations, but you want independent organizations to have that power?  I mean, if you think ACORN is so corrupt, why do you support lifting the limitation against discarding/not delivering registrations?  That's putting more trust in them.

Not the phone book, but the registered voters list.  If someone who isn't registered is registered from the phone book, it makes a difference if the person is actually registered to vote.  That is the prime thing you wish to catch.

No, ACORN registered fake names at real addresses from the phone-book.  That's at least how it went in the states I know of; NV hasn't really released details.

But obviously they check the standing registered voter lists, but unless there's a birthday match or something, they may just assume it's a relative with the same name (like a child, or whatever.)   County registrars don't really have time to cross-check registrations to make sure they make chronological sense (Jr./Sr.)

[J. J.]

I have more of a problem with a group, without checks, sending in false registration forms.

Yes, it sucks taxpayer money has to be used to flag registrations, but you want independent organizations to have that power?  I mean, if you think ACORN is so corrupt, why do you support lifting the limitation against discarding/not delivering registrations?  That's putting more trust in them.

ACORN wouldn't have that power.  They are not the Post Office.  A private organization can choose to screen the applications it gets.  There are alternatives to register, including most local government offices.

Not the phone book, but the registered voters list.  If someone who isn't registered is registered from the phone book, it makes a difference if the person is actually registered to vote.  That is the prime thing you wish to catch.

No, ACORN registered fake names at real addresses from the phone-book.  That's at least how it went in the states I know of; NV hasn't really released details.

But obviously they check the standing registered voter lists, but unless there's a birthday match or something, they may just assume it's a relative with the same name (like a child, or whatever.)   County registrars don't really have time to cross-check registrations to make sure they make chronological sense (Jr./Sr.)

My voter registration card has my birthday on it, so the record could be checked.  I thought they were getting names and addresses out of the phone book.

[King]

It takes me way too long to find the results of the tracking poll in this thread because of the two pages of bullsh**t discussion involved after every posting.

[Rowan]

It takes me way too long to find the results of the tracking poll in this thread because of the two pages of bullsh**t discussion involved after every posting.

Just go to rasmussenreports.com and shut your trap.

[exopolitician]

It takes me way too long to find the results of the tracking poll in this thread because of the two pages of bullsh**t discussion involved after every posting.

Just go to rasmussenreports.com and shut your trap.

Charming...

[J. J.]

They wouldn't have the power, and then you say "a private organization can choose to screen the applications it gets"?  So, they could just throw out applications from Republican precincts, too?  Because there are other places to register, and even if ACORN promises voters they'll get their registrations in, they're a private organization?

That's completely terrifying and a horrible idea.

Alcon, this may surprise you but:

1.  ACORN is not the Post Office.

2.  There are other places where a person can register, like most government offices.

You miss my point.  If someone has your birthday (say 1962-MAR-14), and they get a registration for a J. J. born 1985-JUN-05, they could easily assume it's your son.  And most of the registration fraud was created with false identities, not already existing ones -- although I was surprised to learn that two of the weirdest ACORN names from 2006, Stormi Bays and Echo Slaughter, have actually re-registered and are real people.  Even if they got a match, registrars do not have the time to call to see if you're related or it's a fake.  They're going to assume it's a relative with a familial name.

Okay, but that is something that should trigger a check, especially if it is a new registration.

I've known a Sukihana Krump, a Feodor Pitcairn, and a Kunta Kinta Tasker, all real people.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Most states specifically have laws that organizations can not offer to collect registrations and then refuse to deliver them. The reason of course being cases where such organizations would simply do so for anyone trying to register as a Democrat/Republican. Doesn't matter if it's a registration for Donald Duck at a condemned house, even with that evidence, ACORN can' t trash it. They probably should give it some sort of flag while submitting it, but not submitting it is not an option.

[Rowan]

Drudge is reporting tomorrow is 50%-45% Obama lead.

[Ronnie]

Drudge is reporting tomorrow is 50%-45% Obama lead.

How does he know?

[Alcon]

They wouldn't have the power, and then you say "a private organization can choose to screen the applications it gets"?  So, they could just throw out applications from Republican precincts, too?  Because there are other places to register, and even if ACORN promises voters they'll get their registrations in, they're a private organization?

That's completely terrifying and a horrible idea.

Alcon, this may surprise you but:

1.  ACORN is not the Post Office.

2.  There are other places where a person can register, like most government offices.

J. J., this may surprise you, but you failed to address any of my concerns.  Should ACORN put up a sign that says "we'll throw away registrations if we want to," or as a private organization, are they not obligated to do that either?

No limits on disclosure?  No limits on what registrations can be trashed under the promise of delivery?  Register to vote...if you dare!.

Profoundly awful idea.

Okay, but that is something that should trigger a check, especially if it is a new registration.

What kind of "check"?  No problem with a computer program labeling "possible duplicate," but are you going to have their staffers phone anyone with duplicate/similar names and no explicit Jr./Sr. marking?

And that still would prevent a type of fraud that's never happened on a grand scale before.  Even the burn-out ACORN junkies knew better than to use identical names at identical addresses to the phone book.

The only reason to do that would be vote fraud ("you may not want to get registered, but you're gonna be!") and that would trigger a signature mismatch.

I've known a Sukihana Krump, a Feodor Pitcairn, and a Kunta Kinta Tasker, all real people.

awesome

[King]

Drudge is reporting tomorrow is 50%-45% Obama lead.

How does he know?

Drudge knows all.  And if he's wrong he'll just delete any record of it from his website.

[J. J.]

As far as I can determine, ACORN is free to decline to register someone.  I'm a private individual and I'm not required to register anyone.  I absolutely defend any refusal of ACORN to register Republicans, for example, or people that are opposed to ACORN's goals.

Alcon, you are smarter than most "burnt out junkies."    I've seen people, in my past job, change their stories in the middle of an interview.  Somebody who really wanted to create a false identiy wouldn't do that, but someone trying to meet a quota might.

[Alcon]

As far as I can determine, ACORN is free to decline to register someone.  I'm a private individual and I'm not required to register anyone.  I absolutely defend any refusal of ACORN to register Republicans, for example, or people that are opposed to ACORN's goals.

That's markedly different than accepting a registration under the claim they'll turn it in, and then deciding not to do so after the fact.

If you are maintaining that a registrar should be able to trash forms they don't want to turn in without advising the person registering of this possibility, I vehemently disagree.

Alcon, you are smarter than most "burnt out junkies."    I've seen people, in my past job, change their stories in the middle of an interview.  Somebody who really wanted to create a false identiy wouldn't do that, but someone trying to meet a quota might.

Yet they haven't, yet, so my point was that your band-aid is extra work for overworked registrars for very little reward.  You haven't explain how to practically execute this as governmental policy.

[Sam Spade]

Drudge is reporting tomorrow is 50%-45% Obama lead.

How does he know?

Drudge knows all.  And if he's wrong he'll just delete any record of it from his website.

He's probably in touch with Rasmussen and Zogby personally.

[Eraserhead]

Drudge is trying to pretend that McCain is making a "comeback". Good luck with that one. I'm still far from convinced. These tracking polls do tend to bounce around a little but Obama is still well ahead.

[Mr.Phips]

I am actually starting to think that Democrats would be better off if McCain won this election, much like they would have been better off if Ford won in 1976 or George HW Bush in 1992.  '

That said, if the volatility stops in the stock market, I think McCain could be tied with Obama or only a point behind going into election day.  This would probably be enough to give him the electoral votes he needs to win. 

[BlueSwan]

I am actually starting to think that Democrats would be better off if McCain won this election, much like they would have been better off if Ford won in 1976 or George HW Bush in 1992. 

I don't think so. Granted, it is not a good time to be president, but yet ANOTHER loss in a contest that was as winnable as they get would be devastating. Democrats already can't believe that they lost TWICE to the worst president in US history.

[Sam Spade]

Rounded:
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.43%	(51.09%	51.90%	50.50%	50.48%
McCain	44.69%	(45.02%	44.56%	45.44%	45.00%

[Josh/Devilman88]

Tonight, at 6:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest polling data from Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia will be released. All five states were carried by Republicans four years ago but have become battleground states this year.

[BlueSwan]

Rasmussen today back at 50-45 for Obama.

[classical liberal]

I am actually starting to think that Democrats would be better off if McCain won this election, much like they would have been better off if Ford won in 1976 or George HW Bush in 1992. 

I don't think so. Granted, it is not a good time to be president, but yet ANOTHER loss in a contest that was as winnable as they get would be devastating. Democrats already can't believe that they lost TWICE to the worst president in US history.

I have often said that if the Democrats don't win this time they should just give up.  In fact, I would not be surprised if a loss this time won't send them the way of the Whigs.

[J. J.]

Keeping format:

Monday, October 13, 2008

Obama  50 (-1)

McCain  45 (nc)