Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - October 4, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Actual:
                                           samp goes tom   samp went today
Obama 51.15% (51.06% /  51.22%/              51.17% /              50.85%)

McCain 44.52% (44.36% /  44.39%/              44.72% /              44.89%)

[MODU]

Sam,

You do know you can input this information into a table format (See below):

				samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.15%	(51.06%	51.22%	51.17%	50.85%)
McCain	44.52%	(44.36%	44.39%	44.72%	44.89%)

Just in case you want to give it a shot.

[Ronnie]

Yippee, McCainmentum...

[Alcon]

I wish we just posted the raw margins:

Obama +6.70 to Obama +6.63

Change: McCain +0.07

[Ronnie]

I wish we just posted the raw margins:

Obama +6.70 to Obama +6.63

Change: McCain +0.07

Yippee, McCainmentum...

If McCain gains 0.07% every day until the election...nah just forget it.

[Rowan]

I wish we just posted the raw margins:

Obama +6.70 to Obama +6.63

Change: McCain +0.07

Ain't no stoppin us now, we've got the groove...

[Zarn]

I don't think I'm following that table correctly.

*laughs at self*

[Tender Branson]

Yippee, McCainmentum...

Meaningless movement ...

[cinyc]

Yippee, McCainmentum...

Meaningless movement ...

McCain will get a slight bump after the Vice President debate as disheartened conservatives who were worried about Governor Palin come back to the ticket, likely from the undecided or not voting camp.  A few points, but not enough to erase Obama's lead.

[NOVA Green]

Yippee, McCainmentum...

Meaningless movement ...

McCain will get a slight bump after the Vice President debate as disheartened conservatives who were worried about Governor Palin come back to the ticket, likely from the undecided or not voting camp.  A few points, but not enough to erase Obama's lead.

That's an entirely reasonable supposition, considering the defection of McCain voters to undecided over the past few weeks.

I doubt that will help lower Obama's numbers however.

[exopolitician]

I wish we just posted the raw margins:

Obama +6.70 to Obama +6.63

Change: McCain +0.07

Ain't no stoppin us now, we've got the groove...

So confussseddd...when your lost in the groove!

[Democratic Hawk]

New Rasmussen Party Weighting Targets: Democrat 39.3% (+0.3%); Republican 33.3% (-0.3%); Unaffiliated 27.4% (nc)

Link

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are people seriously arguing McCain's 0.07% gain is statistically significant?

[Alcon]

Are people seriously arguing McCain's 0.07% gain is statistically significant?

A change doesn't magically become meaningful at the 95% rate.  That's dumb.  Being "out of the MoE" isn't magic, it's just arbitrary.  This change is at the low 50%s confidence rate.  That doesn't make it meaningless.  Statistically, yeah.

But that's a generalized nitpick with "statistical tie"-type stuff.  A 0.07% change is almost meaningless, and is grasping at straws.

[J. J.]

I think we have to look to see if this was statistical noise or the beginnings of a trend.

It reminds me of the French officer who first saw von Kluck's turn at the First Battle of the Marne.  Is this it?  I don't know.

[Rowan]

Are people seriously arguing McCain's 0.07% gain is statistically significant?

A change doesn't magically become meaningful at the 95% rate.  That's dumb.  Being "out of the MoE" isn't magic, it's just arbitrary.  This change is at the low 50%s confidence rate.  That doesn't make it meaningless.  Statistically, yeah.

But that's a generalized nitpick with "statistical tie"-type stuff.  A 0.07% change is almost meaningless, and is grasping at straws.

It just depends on what kind of day fell off the tracker. Since its almost impossible to know, we will have to wait a couple of days.

[Alcon]

I think we have to look to see if this was statistical noise or the beginnings of a trend.

It reminds me of the French officer who first saw von Kluck's turn at the First Battle of the Marne.  Is this it?  I don't know.

If this is the beginning of a trend, it better be exponential, because otherwise McCain is totally screwed.  

[memphis]

At this rate, McCain will be tied in a little over 3 months. When's the election again? Seriously, 0.07 is beyond statistically meaningless. It's no change, much the same as a McCain presidency would be.

[NOVA Green]

Sorry, wasn't trying to imply that today's numbers indicate anything, but rather support the assertion that there may be movement over the next few days of a small number of McCain leading undecided voters coming home.

[Sam Spade]

Sorry, wasn't trying to imply that today's numbers indicate anything, but rather support the assertion that there may be movement over the next few days of a small number of McCain leading undecided voters coming home.

There has been a little statistical movement over the past three to four days of voters from Obama Likely to Obama Lean and from McCain Lean to McCain Likely, but it really isn't more than 0.5% and thus may just be noise, considering that it cancels out movement that was made in the three to four days prior to Wednesday.

[Gustaf]

Obama should just give up allready. No fancy statistical mumbo-jumbo can change the FACT that he's done.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[J. J.]

Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Low solid numbers for both candidates.  Interesting.

[Nym90]

Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Low solid numbers for both candidates.  Interesting.

True, of the 17 percent who might change their minds, McCain only needs to get 76 percent of their votes to win.