Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[ucscgaldamez]

What about if Obama is able to change the minds of those who are just leaning to McCain?

[Nym90]

What about if Obama is able to change the minds of those who are just leaning to McCain?

Well, those are counted in the 17 percent figure. 45 percent of voters are solid Obama, 38 percent are solid McCain, 13 percent are leaning one way but may change their minds (7 percent of that is leaning McCain, 6 percent leaning Obama), and 4 percent are pure undecided.

[Ronnie]

The race has officially stabilized.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think we have to look to see if this was statistical noise or the beginnings of a trend.

It reminds me of the French officer who first saw von Kluck's turn at the First Battle of the Marne.  Is this it?  I don't know.

LOL

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The race has officially stabilized.

like the pulse of a dead man

[J. J.]

Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Low solid numbers for both candidates.  Interesting.

True, of the 17 percent who might change their minds, McCain only needs to get 76 percent of their votes to win.

17% is a lot.  This isn't, at this point, a solid win.

[Lunar]

Remember that it's not a favorable/unfavorable question, but a matter of degree that's simplified (I believe).  So you have "very favorable" and "somewhat favorable."  I would go as far as to say that most Obama voters that have an overall "favorable" opinion of McCain are NOT up for grabs and same with McCain voters for Obama.  And, as has been pointed out, McCain would need an enormous majority of these voters to eek out a win.

However, that 17% number misleads you.  Sure, some voters have a favorable opinion of both candidates, but so must another number have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates - some unknown amount of them might still be up for grabs as well.

hmmm

[Mr.Jones]

17 % undecided is indeed a lot. But getting 76 % out of this undecided bunch is almost impossible. So if these figures are correct, then assuming something game changing doesn't happen in the coming 2 weeks, McCain is history.

[J. J.]

17 % undecided is indeed a lot. But getting 76 % out of this undecided bunch is almost impossible. So if these figures are correct, then assuming something game changing doesn't happen in the coming 2 weeks, McCain is history.

First of all, you are making an assumption that those absolute people will stay put.  The may move, in either direction.

Second, 17% is still huge, especially at this point. 

Third, yes, if we were a week out, I'd say Obama, with these numbers.  We still 4 weeks out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love J. J.'s *noun* may *verb* statements. They're so hilariously implausible.

The Florida and Michigan Democratic Parties may change their minds and challenge the RBC decision on their delegates.

Democratic superdelegates pledge to Obama may en masse switch over to Hillary.

The whole "Obama may not have more delegates counting FL and MI" stuff near the end of the campaign involving scenarios like a +10 Hillary victory in Oregon.

Obama may lose the white Democratic vote. (OK it hasn't happened yet but it's such an asinine statement it's still worth mocking.)

[Kalimantan]

Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Brittain33]

Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

"This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year.

As for the Presidential race, Obama now leads by two points among men. That’s the first time he has led among men all year and he also enjoys a fourteen point advantage among women. Obama attracts 12% of Republican voters and leads by eleven among those not affiliated with either major political party. McCain gets the vote from 11% of Democrats.

New polling will be released tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia."

[Kalimantan]

beat you to it

... and interesting stat of the day - thats 25 straight days that Obama's support hasn't declined by a single point.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Also Obama enjoys a bigger lead then any candidate did in 2004.

[Kalimantan]

New polling will be released tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia."

Which means they've dropped Pennsylvania from their Sunday swing-state polling, and added Missouri instead

[Brittain33]

New polling will be released tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia."

Which means they've dropped Pennsylvania from their Sunday swing-state polling, and added Missouri instead

Good catch. That was the last of the Kerry states to go, too.

[Tender Branson]

New polling will be released tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia."

Which means they've dropped Pennsylvania from their Sunday swing-state polling, and added Missouri instead

Good decision. PA is probably not competetive anymore (sry Phil, but it's the reality), while MO is now a true toss-up.

[Lief 🗽]

Ah, the Palin bounce manifests itself.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Obama is on a trajectory to win by 12 points.

[Zarn]

Say goodbye to the economy... and your jobs.

[Brittain33]

Say goodbye to the economy... and your jobs.

Can you really believe rhetoric like that considering, well, it's happening right now with a Republican President?

[Aizen]

Say goodbye to the economy... and your jobs.

McCain isn't going to win

[Tender Branson]

Say goodbye to the economy... and your jobs.

How was that saying again ?

If you want to live like a Republican, vote Democratic ?

Go and kick yourself and make 60% for Obama in New Jersey a reality ...

[Zarn]

You guys are clueless.