Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wednesday - July 23, 2008

Obama: 47% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

So when McCain leads by two points in national polling, can we say that he has a chance at MN, OR, WA and ME?

If polls from those states show he does.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It also seems that Palin's appeal lies more with men than women.

What did Sam Spade tell you?  Maybe you should listen to him more often. 

he told me that Obama "never had a chance" to beat Clinton back in February

I doubt I would have said that in February.  Please provide the link.  I might have said that after New Hampshire, but it was probably taunting.  In fact, that describes a decent bit of what I did that primary. 

Obama had no chance from the moment he entered the Dem race.  Just FYI 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama has in the high single digits of campaign offices in N.D., while McCain has none.

I make no pretense that that will swing enough voters to overcome a 14-point gap in a state that always votes Republican, but it's interesting nonetheless. We're going to see what happens when a campaign works a state it should have close to no hope to winning.

ND was never going to a deciding factor, even if Obama won it with 52% of the national vote.  Time to close up shop and move the operation to Minn/Wisc/Iowa

Why? Obama's going to easily win all those.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The economic numbers are probably due to the "halo effect".

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Damn why you guys hatin' on walmart. When I need cheap sh**t that's exactly where I go. Or target...same sh**t.

The funniest thing just happened. My father began his sentence "Let me tell you...that f***ing Wal-Mart is amazing"...and went on to say that "I bought you a candy bar and picked up Hot Dogs and buns...the hot dogs and buns cost less than the candy bar."

$0.57 cents for a pack of eight hot dogs...that costs less than a milk chocolate Hershey bar.

Damn stuff must be cheap out in Ohio. I don't know what you guys complain about so much.

Yup.

That said, Costco pwns Wal-Mart, for many reasons, one being that zoning laws mean that there are only two Wal-Marts within half an hour driving.

Yes for a family Costco is the obvious place to go. And you get free lunch to boot. For single people target or walmart is better.

Anecdotal observation, at least where I live, leads me to believe that lower-class people shop at Wal-Mart, while Costco is more of a upper-middle class store. Target is for hipster white people and poor Hispanic/Black people. I don't really understand why.

That's true here except the upper-middle class just go to various big boxes, not Costco, and Target also has a solid grasp on the middle class for obvious reasons.

I'm quite glad to live in a city without a single Wal-Mart.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think he means what McCain is losing from Bush. So +3 Kerry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Are people seriously arguing McCain's 0.07% gain is statistically significant?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think we have to look to see if this was statistical noise or the beginnings of a trend.

It reminds me of the French officer who first saw von Kluck's turn at the First Battle of the Marne.  Is this it?  I don't know.

LOL

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I love J. J.'s *noun* may *verb* statements. They're so hilariously implausible.

The Florida and Michigan Democratic Parties may change their minds and challenge the RBC decision on their delegates.

Democratic superdelegates pledge to Obama may en masse switch over to Hillary.

The whole "Obama may not have more delegates counting FL and MI" stuff near the end of the campaign involving scenarios like a +10 Hillary victory in Oregon.

Obama may lose the white Democratic vote. (OK it hasn't happened yet but it's such an asinine statement it's still worth mocking.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So in other words that Lunar predicted and J. J. mocked him for is happening?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When did Republicans start concerning themselves with facts?

The only voter fraud I've heard about was from ACORN.

For the millionth time:

registration fraud != voter fraud

And ACORN were being just as defrauded as the state's election boards, arguably more so since it cost them money, while for the states it cost the just a few cents it takes to process a new voter registration for someone who'll never ever vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When did Republicans start concerning themselves with facts?

The only voter fraud I've heard about was from ACORN.

For the millionth time:

registration fraud != voter fraud

And ACORN were being just as defrauded as the state's election boards, arguably more so since it cost them money, while for the states it cost the just a few cents it takes to process a new voter registration for someone who'll never ever vote.

Note:  BRTD favors registration fraud. 

Seriously, we look at registration numbers and you are supporting it.  ACRON doesn't have internal checks on this?

Nice straw man. I never said I supported it. It was fraud on behalf of the people committing who were in effect stealing from ACORN.

What I'm saying it's blown out of proportion. Having a few registrations for Donald Duck is not going to result in a stolen election. Alcon nailed it in the first sentence.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Most states specifically have laws that organizations can not offer to collect registrations and then refuse to deliver them. The reason of course being cases where such organizations would simply do so for anyone trying to register as a Democrat/Republican. Doesn't matter if it's a registration for Donald Duck at a condemned house, even with that evidence, ACORN can' t trash it. They probably should give it some sort of flag while submitting it, but not submitting it is not an option.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Observation:  Strong McCain sample today in comparison with overall trend and movement.  Most of the movement was in Indys.  Could be outlier or not.  Only time will tell...

Ahem...

Taken before the debate though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

Huh?  I never said that.  In fact, I've repeatedly said that Obama had absolutely no reason to release his September fundraising until legally required to do so.
 
Please stop putting words into my mouth.

I'm referring to your obsession with Obama not taking public funds.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nice!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.

Are you saying that NC will go Obama?

I was referring your absolutely horrendous NC primary prediction, which anyone in MENSA would've been able to figure out from the rest of the post, which is conveniently ignored.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota:

71% Approve
26% Disapprove

Georgia (Dec. 8 ):

69% Approve
28% Disapprove

Wow.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A good chunk of racists must approve then even.