Official West Virginia Democratic Primary Discussion Thread...

[Sam Spade]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Isn't every state "interesting" except for the ones where all you need is racial demographics and you can already draw the entire county map?

Those states are interesting too.

So then what states aren't interesting?

Minnesota and North Dakota.

[WalterMitty]

brtd is so far gone that it isnt even worth arguing.

of course (the great) obama is going to win the presidency.  forget about florida, west virginia, michigan, pennsylvania  ohio/...the (great) obama is going to win virginia, georgia, and most importnatly kansas and the dakotas!!!!1333453i6u

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Isn't every state "interesting" except for the ones where all you need is racial demographics and you can already draw the entire county map?

Those states are interesting too.

So then what states aren't interesting?

Minnesota and North Dakota.

I actually did find interesting quirks in the maps there, but how's ND not interesting and SD is?

brtd is so far gone that it isnt even worth arguing.

of course (the great) obama is going to win the presidency.  forget about florida, west virginia, michigan, pennsylvania  ohio/...the (great) obama is going to win virginia, georgia, and most importnatly kansas and the dakotas!!!!1333453i6u

Please find a post of mine where I have claimed Obama will win any of those states over McCain.

[Sbane]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Yes they will be provided they campaign there. I am guessing they will but OR could change that.

Hillary Clinton leaving after Oregon?  You're not being serious, are you?

I was just hoping LOL. But what if she loses by 15 points? Is it onwards to lose in Montana and South Dakota? Or is she going to become puerto rican for a while?

[J. J.]

And what are Montana and South Dakota? Latte liberal land?

Montana Democrats, pretty much; there the ties are more Pacific Northwest.  It also isn't a "plains state." 

SD, is a bit different, but it isn't white "working class," either.

[Sam Spade]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Yes they will be provided they campaign there. I am guessing they will but OR could change that.

Hillary Clinton leaving after Oregon?  You're not being serious, are you?

I was just hoping LOL. But what if she loses by 15 points? Is it onwards to lose in Montana and South Dakota? Or is she going to become puerto rican for a while?

She may lose Oregon by 15 points, but she'll probably win Kentucky by 30.

I don't know what's going to happen in Montana and South Dakota and neither do you... (especially Montana) 

Besides, if there's one thing we've learned about this campaign, it's that the right wing was wrong about many things Clinton and right about many things Clinton.  One of the things they were right on was that this woman will never quit or give in.  Ever.  Same with her husband.

[Sbane]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Yes they will be provided they campaign there. I am guessing they will but OR could change that.

Hillary Clinton leaving after Oregon?  You're not being serious, are you?

I was just hoping LOL. But what if she loses by 15 points? Is it onwards to lose in Montana and South Dakota? Or is she going to become puerto rican for a while?

She may lose Oregon by 15 points, but she'll probably win Kentucky by 30.

I don't know what's going to happen in Montana and South Dakota and neither do you... (especially Montana) 

Besides, if there's one thing we've learned about this campaign, it's that the right wing was wrong about many things Clinton and right about many things Clinton.  One of the things they were right on was that this woman will never quit or give in.  Ever.  Same with her husband.

I am pretty sure Montana will vote for Obama. pretty sure. Havent really seen any polling lately but it would puzzle me why it would vote different from all of its neighbors.

[J. J.]

Montana and South Dakota will be interesting, actually.

Yes they will be provided they campaign there. I am guessing they will but OR could change that.

Hillary Clinton leaving after Oregon?  You're not being serious, are you?

I was just hoping LOL. But what if she loses by 15 points? Is it onwards to lose in Montana and South Dakota? Or is she going to become puerto rican for a while?

She may lose Oregon by 15 points, but she'll probably win Kentucky by 30.

I don't know what's going to happen in Montana and South Dakota and neither do you... (especially Montana) 

Besides, if there's one thing we've learned about this campaign, it's that the right wing was wrong about many things Clinton and right about many things Clinton.  One of the things they were right on was that this woman will never quit or give in.  Ever.  Same with her husband.

It's next to impossible for Clinton to win it clean, but it is possible for her to win it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

[Sam Spade]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Of course, who hasn't.  Doesn't seem to affect the bitch much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Of course, who hasn't.  Doesn't seem to affect the bitch much.

Sure she can stay in as long as she wants, but that doesn't increase her chances of winning the nomination anymore than Paul sticking in increases his chances.

[ottermax]

Well, Clinton has won her second state without losing a single county (Rhode Island was number one, but it only has four...)

I hoped Obama would at least get 30%. What did 7% of people vote for? The numbers don't add up.

[J. J.]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Yes, maybe the fifty that Obama promised in March might be out by now.

As a group, they have yet to step in (which tells you more about the super delegates than the race).

Really, to end this, there needs to be an en masse movement in the triple digits to one candidate or the other.  For whatever reason, they are not doing that, as of yet.

[J. J.]

What did 7% of people vote for? The numbers don't add up.

Edwards.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Yes, maybe the fifty that Obama promised in March might be out by now.

As a group, they have yet to step in (which tells you more about the super delegates than the race).

Really, to end this, there needs to be an en masse movement in the triple digits to one candidate or the other.  For whatever reason, they are not doing that, as of yet.

Triple digits? Obama needs only about 50-60. Hillary meanwhile needs close to 200, and more than 80% of the remaining total.

If all the remaining superdelegates slowly trickle in at a 50/50 split (very generous to Hillary), Obama wins it.

[Tender Branson]

LOL @ Mingo County: 8% Obama, 4% Edwards.

Can`t wait for Eastern Kentucky ...

[RBH]

I'm sure the Clinton campaign is ready to unleash the moonshine in Eastern Kentucky too.

Yay votebuying!

[J. J.]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Yes, maybe the fifty that Obama promised in March might be out by now.

As a group, they have yet to step in (which tells you more about the super delegates than the race).

Really, to end this, there needs to be an en masse movement in the triple digits to one candidate or the other.  For whatever reason, they are not doing that, as of yet.

Triple digits? Obama needs only about 50-60. Hillary meanwhile needs close to 200, and more than 80% of the remaining total.

If all the remaining superdelegates slowly trickle in at a 50/50 split (very generous to Hillary), Obama wins it.

I repeat, either candidate needs triple digits to end this:

Need to Nominate   2,026.0
B Obama                        1,878.5

A slow trickle doesn't end it and that's without FL/MI; it has to be dramatic.  A 26 delegate gain , per week, will end it in mid-June.  There has to be a dramatic shift to Obama, or he has to win net gains on the ground. 

What's his ground game been like from April (Wright/bitter) to today, a slight net loss for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Yes, maybe the fifty that Obama promised in March might be out by now.

As a group, they have yet to step in (which tells you more about the super delegates than the race).

Really, to end this, there needs to be an en masse movement in the triple digits to one candidate or the other.  For whatever reason, they are not doing that, as of yet.

Triple digits? Obama needs only about 50-60. Hillary meanwhile needs close to 200, and more than 80% of the remaining total.

If all the remaining superdelegates slowly trickle in at a 50/50 split (very generous to Hillary), Obama wins it.

I repeat, either candidate needs triple digits to end this:

Need to Nominate   2,026.0
B Obama                        1,878.5

A slow trickle doesn't end it and that's without FL/MI; it has to be dramatic.  A 26 delegate gain , per week, will end it in mid-June.  There has to be a dramatic shift to Obama, or he has to win net gains on the ground. 

What's his ground game been like from April (Wright/bitter) to today, a slight net loss for Obama.

He only needs about 50-60 after adding all the delegates he'll win in the remaining primaries.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Were there any counties where Edwards beat Obama?  Will Edwards be allocated delegates?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sure the Clinton campaign is ready to unleash the moonshine in Eastern Kentucky too.

Yay votebuying!

It's part of the culture of the area and needs to be respected

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So then, did McDowell vote any differently from the other southern coalfield counties [qm]

Slightly; Obama actually broke 20% there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think it's pretty ridiculous that whites are only "working class" if they live in Appalachia.

Appalachia is unusual for the States in that a majority of whites there are working class.

[J. J.]

Has anyone been paying attention to what superdelegates are doing the last few days at all?

Yes, maybe the fifty that Obama promised in March might be out by now.

As a group, they have yet to step in (which tells you more about the super delegates than the race).

Really, to end this, there needs to be an en masse movement in the triple digits to one candidate or the other.  For whatever reason, they are not doing that, as of yet.

Triple digits? Obama needs only about 50-60. Hillary meanwhile needs close to 200, and more than 80% of the remaining total.

If all the remaining superdelegates slowly trickle in at a 50/50 split (very generous to Hillary), Obama wins it.

I repeat, either candidate needs triple digits to end this:

Need to Nominate   2,026.0
B Obama                        1,878.5

A slow trickle doesn't end it and that's without FL/MI; it has to be dramatic.  A 26 delegate gain , per week, will end it in mid-June.  There has to be a dramatic shift to Obama, or he has to win net gains on the ground. 

What's his ground game been like from April (Wright/bitter) to today, a slight net loss for Obama.

He only needs about 50-60 after adding all the delegates he'll win in the remaining primaries.

Then it doesn't end it, now, but sometime in early to mid June, at the earliest.  That assumes that he gains and that those 50-60 will move then.  They don't really have to move until August, late August.

Right now, either candidate would need triple digits to end this.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Right now, Barack Obama only needs 30% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.  He will lose Kentucky and Puerto Rico pretty bad, but he'll make it up in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota.

Get this:  Even if Obama loses Kentucky and Puerto Rico 70-30, he will still be on track to clinch the nomination if he were to lose the last three states 70-30.

That is saying nothing of how damaged he would be going into November if he were to lose the last 5 states 70-30 and limp into the nomination, but it gives you an idea how bad her chances are.