Official West Virginia Democratic Primary Discussion Thread...

[War on Want]

So absolutely no chance whatsoever of Obama winning a single county then?

Dave

Jefferson or Berkley could still go for Obama. Don't count on it though,

[War on Want]

Such BS from Wolfson.

[Democratic Hawk]

Such BS from Wolfson.

What's he saying like?

[War on Want]

Such BS from Wolfson.

What's he saying like?

"West Virginia is a key swing state, yadayadayada, West Virginia is super important is key, yaddyaydyada, West Virginia is absolutley necessary"

[Joe Biden 2020]

Such BS from Wolfson.

What's he saying like?

"West Virginia is a key swing state, yadayadayada, West Virginia is super important is key, yaddyaydyada, West Virginia is absolutley necessary"

Its like he's saying in regards to Michigan and Florida that Obama didn't have his name on the ballot, so that's his tough luck.  Mind you, the ONLY reason the Clinton supporters are advocating so strongly for Michigan and Florida is because it would help HER.  If they were favored to Obama, they would not be advocating it this loudly and the opposite may have been true.

[Alcon]

Jefferson County 61% in, 49-47 Clinton

[J. J.]

Such BS from Wolfson.

What's he saying like?

"West Virginia is a key swing state, yadayadayada, West Virginia is super important is key, yaddyaydyada, West Virginia is absolutley necessary"

Its like he's saying in regards to Michigan and Florida that Obama didn't have his name on the ballot, so that's his tough luck.  Mind you, the ONLY reason the Clinton supporters are advocating so strongly for Michigan and Florida is because it would help HER.  If they were favored to Obama, they would not be advocating it this loudly and the opposite may have been true.

I'm not question Clinton's motives.  She's a ruthless politician.

I'm suggesting that she can do it, within the rules.

Edwards at 7% Obama at 28%, Clinton at 65% at 41%

[WalterMitty]

Jefferson County 61% in, 49-47 Clinton

and monongalia county wasnt even competitive.

[Alcon]

Jefferson County 61% in, 49-47 Clinton

and monongalia county wasnt even competitive.

Honestly I'm not remotely surprised.  It's a poor area outside of the college (not really socially liberal even), college was out a while ago, and the new registration laws weren't good.

I was pretty well-convinced that Jefferson County would be Obama's best, which it is so far, although I'm told Berkeley could be good for him too...but I know nothing about it.

[Alcon]

Jefferson's in, 49-46.

Berkeley is Obama's last chance, but if he lost Jeffco, I can't see why he wins Berkeley.  I wish Verily was still around...

[WalterMitty]

Jefferson's in, 49-46.

Berkeley is Obama's last chance, but if he lost Jeffco, I can't see why he wins Berkeley.  I wish Verily was still around...

i dont know the census data, but i can tell you from my many trips through berkeley county, it is very middle class.  tons of subdivisions.  very suburban, by wv standards.

he can win there or come close.

[Alcon]

Jefferson's in, 49-46.

Berkeley is Obama's last chance, but if he lost Jeffco, I can't see why he wins Berkeley.  I wish Verily was still around...

i dont know the census data, but i can tell you from my many trips through berkeley county, it is very middle class.  tons of subdivisions.  very suburban, by wv standards.

he can win there or come close.

Huh, OK.  I guess one can live real middle-class in West Virginia on the cheap.  I bet Jefferson County's MHI is inflated by the Washington, D.C., transplants.  Berkeley may be Census-poorer, but it may be culturally just as middle-class, so Obama may stand a chance.

He could still be in it.

[Joe Biden 2020]

How far, in terms of miles and driving time, is the extreme eastern tip of the West Virginia "panhandle" from places like Harrisburg and Washington D.C.?  I know a lot of the residents in that part of the state commute through NoVa into the D.C. metro, but I was wondering how far of a drive it is for them?

[WalterMitty]

Jefferson's in, 49-46.

Berkeley is Obama's last chance, but if he lost Jeffco, I can't see why he wins Berkeley.  I wish Verily was still around...

i dont know the census data, but i can tell you from my many trips through berkeley county, it is very middle class.  tons of subdivisions.  very suburban, by wv standards.

he can win there or come close.

Huh, OK.  I guess one can live real middle-class in West Virginia on the cheap.  I bet Jefferson County's MHI is inflated by the Washington, D.C., transplants.  Berkeley may be Census-poorer, but it may be culturally just as middle-class, so Obama may stand a chance.

He could still be in it.

well, i think we can now take berkeley off the table.

is it just me viewing this as a clinton supporter...but is obama under-performing in the state?

[Alcon]

Ignoring the Edwards vote, yeah, he is marginally underperforming.

[Democratic Hawk]

Such BS from Wolfson.

What's he saying like?

"West Virginia is a key swing state, yadayadayada, West Virginia is super important is key, yaddyaydyada, West Virginia is absolutley necessary"

West Virginia has 5 electoral votes. And given that it swung behind a failing president in 2004, there is no guarantee it would come home in 2008 even if Clinton were the Democratic nominee

Any one would think that Clinton and Obama were an ocean apart on the issues that matter to WV Democrats. It comes as no surprise that more Obama supporters would support Clinton were she the nominee than t'other way around .

Still, the reason, in part, for Clinton running stronger with white lower income Democrats could be that she has been more policy specific. When Obama turned policy wonk in Wisconsin, he won it handidly and made an albeit short-lived inroad into her demographics

It's as though, on the one hand, you have the 'visionaries' (Obama) and, on the other, the 'substantialists' (Clinton)

Nevertheless the bottom-line is that common sense should these voters that, as a Democrat, he is more for them than McCain

Dave

[Torie]

Obama is running to about form actually. In relatively down market Scotch Irish white areas he gets about 30%. 

Clinton with 74% of the vote in, is carrying Berkeley by 18% by the way.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Obama is running to about form actually. In relatively down market Scotch Irish white areas he gets about 30%. 

Clinton with 74% of the vote in, is carrying Berkeley by 18% by the way.

I actually think he is doing slightly better than expected.  Of course, I'm viewing this favoring Obama over Clinton.  I thought he would struggle to get 25% and he just might reach 30% and keep her in the lower to middle 60s.  Remember, lower 60s is "just" less than 15 points from splitting the state.

Obama knew it was going to be Hillary's night and thats why he gave his election-night speech in the middle of the afternoon from Cape G, Missouri.  He is looking at Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana right now.  Not to mention, he is trying to rev up a general election strategy.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Delegate Count as of 10:30 pm EDT (9:30 pm CDT).

Obama:  1599 pledged delegates.  282 superdelegates.  1,881 total delegates.  -144 from 2,025.

Clinton:  1,440 pledged delegates.  273 superdelegates.  1,713 total delegate.  -312 from 2,025 and -168 behind Obama.

West Virginia pledged delegates:  16 for Clinton, 7 for Obama with 5 outstanding for a total of 28 pledged delegates.

[JohnCA246]

This about what I expected and all the polls expected so I woudln't say under-performing.  His showing in the old Matewan/Battle of Blair Mountain Counties are downright pathetic though.  It was expected, but man.  15% ? Ouch.

This wont change a thing though, because this was expected, shes not getting a boost, and 10-15 more delegates aint a game breaker.

[WalterMitty]

i expected obama to do better in huntington, home of the marshall thundering herd.

[Eraserhead]

Although I always expected a blowout, I must admit that he did considerably worse than even I expected.

[Sam Spade]

I supposed half of the anti-wimmin vote would go to Obama as the "supposed nominee".  That was wrong. 

Other than that, not too bad of a prediction, really.

[jimrtex]

Donna Brazille on CNN, perpetuating the myth that every state except FL & MI complied with the DNC calendar rules....no mention of IA & NH's rulebreaking.

IA & NH both applied for waivers to the DNC and received them.

Yes, but only *after* they'd already moved their contests.  They moved to Jan. 3rd and Jan. 8th respectively, which was earlier than the DNC allowed (the original DNC calendar said they could go on Jan. 14th and Jan. 22nd respectively), and said "We don't care what the DNC says, we're going to vote on Jan. 3 and 8 no matter what."  The DNC gave them a pass in December 2007, after their dates were already locked in.

Formally the DNC didn't give them a pass until December, but informally, both states had consulted with Dean before making their moves and it was widely understood that they'd be given the pass. Florida was the first to make a move on May 3, and, in order to forestall a chaotic rush, the Rules Committee decided to set an example with Florida.

When Michigan followed in August, they had no choice but to do the same. New Hampshire's constitution requires that its primary be at least one week before any other primary. Therefore they legally had no choice but to move 1 week prior to Michigan to Jan. 8. After consultations with the DNC both NH and IA were allowed to move.

I used to think Dean behaved unfairly, but now I'm not so sure. Which state moved first-- New Hampshire or Michigan?

You wouldn't happen to know which section of the NH constitution?

All I could find was a state law (which was updated in June 2007 to permit the SOS to set a non-Tuesday date for the election).

The actual law says that the primary will be held coincident with Spring town meetings in March - which may well be a constitutional provision, except it can be moved earlier to cut in front of any other State.

[Beet]

I overestimated Obama's "presumptive nominee" bounce as well. But most of all underestimated Edwards.