Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

I'm already quite sure the Liberals will be totally in existent in the rural Francophone areas of Quebec.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

I'm already quite sure the Liberals will be totally in existent in the rural Francophone areas of Quebec.

Weren't they basically in 2006 already [qm]

Btw, those maps thee made are nice. Now post them here 

[Hash]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

I'm already quite sure the Liberals will be totally in existent in the rural Francophone areas of Quebec.

Weren't they basically in 2006 already [qm]

Yes. But they'll be even lower.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

And Gatineau..

Gatineau is not a Liberal-held seat, but yes.

touche lol

[Hatman 🍁]

Big news, Julian West has withdrawn as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the deadline. That really blasts that race wide open for the Greens (Andrew Lewis running again) and the Liberals (running former BC Green Briony Penn) against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn.

Also, for the first time maybe ever, certainly in a long time, no party is running a full slate of candidates.

That's rather unfortunate, he's been the candidate for quite some time.

[MaxQue]

Big news, Julian West has withdrawn as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the deadline. That really blasts that race wide open for the Greens (Andrew Lewis running again) and the Liberals (running former BC Green Briony Penn) against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn.

Also, for the first time maybe ever, certainly in a long time, no party is running a full slate of candidates.

That's rather unfortunate, he's been the candidate for quite some time.

He will be on the ballot. Elections Canada has decided than is was too late to remove his name from the ballot. So, the final tally of candidates is:

NDP: 308
CPC: 307 (Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier)
LPC: 307 (Central Nova)
GPC: 304 (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville, Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

[Verily]

EKOS seems to be picking up a Bloc surge in Quebec, up to 40% now. (Con 20, Lib 18, NDP 15, Grn 7). Decima is picking up the same surge, although I have no numbers from them right now.

[Hash]

Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

Weird, Pundits Guide reports that there are Greenies there.

Elections Canada doesn't. Damn it. Elizabeth May is an awful leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

Weird, Pundits Guide reports that there are Greenies there.

Elections Canada doesn't. Damn it. Elizabeth May is an awful leader.

the debates will prove this

[Hash]

EKOS seems to be picking up a Bloc surge in Quebec, up to 40% now. (Con 20, Lib 18, NDP 15, Grn 7). Decima is picking up the same surge, although I have no numbers from them right now.

I really think the discussion about the Redneck Alliance cutting funding for arts and cultures in Quebec is hitting the Tories badly in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Numbers I found interesting:

EKOS indicates the following numbers for those under 25 years old:

Liberals: 26%
NDP: 21%
Cons: 21%
Greens: 20%
BQ: 13%

For shits and giggles, I added this into the H and K predictor:

Liberal: 109
BQ: 63
NDP: 60
Cons: 60
Greens: 16

[Hatman 🍁]

This is an interesting stat as well. Who would be your second choice?

The NDP leads all parties as 2nd choice. (Interesting for all those interested in IRV)

The Conservative vote would break:
Liberals: 19
NDP: 18
Green: 9
BQ: 4

Liberal vote would break:
NDP: 34
Green: 23
Conservatives: 17
BQ: 4

NDP vote would break:
Liberal: 30
Green: 24
Conservatives: 14 
BQ: 9

BQ vote would break
NDP: 26   
Liberal: 17
Green: 17
Cons: 14

Greens:
NDP: 26
Liberals: 26
Cons: 13
BQ: 8

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 40 (+3)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 19 (-2)
BQ: 9 (0)
GPC 8 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 37 (-3)
CPC: 22 (-1)
LPC: 18 (+4)
NDP: 17 (-1)
GPC: 6 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 36 (-1)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (+1)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (+3)
CPC: 20 (-2)
LPC: 18 (0)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (-1)
LPC: 23 (-1)
NDP: 17 (+1)
GPC: 12 (0)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 39 (+2)
CPC: 23 (0)
LPC: 17 (+1)
NDP: 12 (-2)
GPC: 8 (-1)

[Hash]

I think the Nanos is definitely an outlier. Their Ontario numbers are quite lol-worthy.

[MaxQue]

Big news, Julian West has withdrawn as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the deadline. That really blasts that race wide open for the Greens (Andrew Lewis running again) and the Liberals (running former BC Green Briony Penn) against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn.

Also, for the first time maybe ever, certainly in a long time, no party is running a full slate of candidates.

That's rather unfortunate, he's been the candidate for quite some time.

He will be on the ballot. Elections Canada has decided than is was too late to remove his name from the ballot. So, the final tally of candidates is:

NDP: 308
CPC: 307 (Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier)
LPC: 307 (Central Nova)
GPC: 304 (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville, Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

Correction: GPC: 303 (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville, Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley, Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte, Jonquiere--Alma)

[Hash]

My prediction (general. Not exact-exact, you know) Con 134, Lib 96, Bloc 43, NDP 33, Ind 2, Green 0

[Хahar 🤔]

Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

Weird, Pundits Guide reports that there are Greenies there.

Elections Canada doesn't. Damn it. Elizabeth May is an awful leader.

the debates will prove this

Hopefully.

[cinyc]

I think the Nanos is definitely an outlier. Their Ontario numbers are quite lol-worthy.

I wouldn't characterize any of the three posted polls as an outlier.  They're all within the margin of error of each other.  Nanos (SES) was the best pollster in the 2006 cycle.

If the Nanos numbers are true, the Tories will likely win a majority government.  But there's still plenty of time and the debates to go.

Edited to add:  Here's Nanos' explanation of the poll numbers, via Reuters:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've been told by some that I don't understand Canadian politics, though.

[Hash]

My demographic maps using Al's key.

Montreal and Laval (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2007_20_09_08_4_14_06.PNG)



NCR/Ottawa (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2007_20_09_08_4_14_46.png)



I'll be doing Vancouver tonight/this weekend.

[Hatman 🍁]

NCR includes Gatineau foo'

[Hash]

Surrey North is staying put.

Why so?

[Hash]

GVRD/Lower Mainland demographics part uno; Income.



Ze large image is here

[Hatman 🍁]

Surrey North is staying put.

Why so?

It's a traditional NDP seat.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 39 (-1)
LPC: 24 (-1)
NDP: 19 (0)
BQ: 9 (0)
GPC: 8 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 38 (+1)
CPC: 23 (+1)
LPC: 18 (0)
NDP: 15 (-2)
GPC: 6 (0)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 35 (-1)
LPC: 25 (0)
NDP: 20 (+1)
GPC: 10 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (0)
CPC: 21 (+1)
LPC: 17 (-1)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 7 (0)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 24 (+1)
NDP: 18 (+1)
GPC: 10 (-2)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 38 (-1)
CPC: 26 (+3)
LPC: 18 (+1)
NDP: 11 (-1)
GPC: 6 (-2)

[Hatman 🍁]

fairly good numbers, I'd say.