Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

FWIW, I'm predicting right now a PV of Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Greenies 9.

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW, I'm predicting right now a PV of Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Greenies 9.

fairly reasonable

[Hash]

FWIW, I'm predicting right now a PV of Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Greenies 9.

fairly reasonable

What are you predicting? NDP 80, Con 20, All others 0?

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW, I'm predicting right now a PV of Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Greenies 9.

fairly reasonable

What are you predicting? NDP 80, Con 20, All others 0?

Hard to say right now. I prefer picking seat totals over % anyways. I think your estimate for the NDP though is right on the money.

[Meeker]

Don't the Greens always do worse than they poll?

[Verily]

Don't the Greens always do worse than they poll?

They used to. But they polled exactly where they ended up in the Ontario election in 2007, which was also their best result ever (except BC 2001, which was under special circumstances anyway). I suspect that, as the Greens have become mainstream, their overpolling has subsided.

[minionofmidas]

FWIW, I'm predicting right now a PV of Con 38, Lib 26, NDP 18, Bloc 9, Greenies 9.

fairly reasonable

What are you predicting? NDP 80, Con 20, All others 0?

NDP 80, Con (includes Lib and Green) 0, All others 20 is more like it.

[Hash]

Don't Greens tend to overpoll?

Yes, they do.

Not in Ontario 2007, which implies that they are no longer overpolling.

[Verily]

For our resident NDP optimists, Angus Reid has the NDP and Liberals tied at 21%. (Conservatives at 40%.)

[minionofmidas]

For our resident NDP optimists, Angus Reid has the NDP and Liberals tied at 21%. (Conservatives at 40%.)

This would have been nicer without the exact percentages.

[Verily]

For our resident NDP optimists, Angus Reid has the NDP and Liberals tied at 21%. (Conservatives at 40%.)

This would have been nicer without the exact percentages.

Hey, can't be too kind

[Hash]

Angus-Reid continues to be bullsh**t polling.

[Hash]

Proof that 'battleground polls' are jack: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080926.wElectionpoll-projections27/BNStory/politics/home

lol

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 39 (0)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 9 (+1)
BQ: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 25 (+2)
LPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 11 (-4)
GPC: 7 (+1)

No EKOS on the weekends

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 38 (+1)
LPC: 23 (-1)
NDP: 19 (+1)
GPC: 9 (-1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 27 (+1)
LPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
GPC: 4 (-2)

And because that is interesting: Nanos Western Canada

CPC: 49
NDP: 24
LPC: 17
GPC: 11

[Хahar 🤔]

My god.

This is depressing.

[Hatman 🍁]

My god.

This is depressing.

how so?

[Хahar 🤔]

My god.

This is depressing.

how so?

Harper's pretty much got this in the bag.

[Smid]

My god.

This is depressing.

how so?

Harper's pretty much got this in the bag.

But that's not depressing...

[MaxQue]

My god.

This is depressing.

how so?

Harper's pretty much got this in the bag.

But that's not depressing...

That is depressing when you are Canadian and you know than this will bring more years of censorship, secrets, lies and pollution.

But, unlike Dion said in a ad, a vote for Harper is not a vote for the third term of Bush.

[Hatman 🍁]

My current Ontario prediction:

[cinyc]

Proof that 'battleground polls' are jack: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080926.wElectionpoll-projections27/BNStory/politics/home

lol

Honestly, I wouldn't doubt that the Liberals would lose all close ridings if current trends continue.   Liberal support has collapsed in the past week.  And I don't think things are going to get much better in the immediate short term with recent revelations that one Liberal MP in Manitoba is a 9/11 truther wacko.

We'll have to wait until after the Leaders' debate next week to see if Dion can start to turn things around.   I doubt it, in part because his English is not so good (even if it's 1000 times better than my French), and that might turn off more Anglophone Canadians.  But we shall see.

[Хahar 🤔]

My current Ontario prediction:

Why can't that part near Manitoba (forget the riding name) vote NDP!

[Verily]

My current Ontario prediction:

Why can't that part near Manitoba (forget the riding name) vote NDP!

It certainly could. The Liberal incumbent may come in third. But the NDP fell back in 2006 when they were expected to be the main challengers.

[Smid]

My god.

This is depressing.

how so?

Harper's pretty much got this in the bag.

But that's not depressing...

That is depressing when you are Canadian and you know than this will bring more years of censorship, secrets, lies and pollution.

But, unlike Dion said in a ad, a vote for Harper is not a vote for the third term of Bush.

The only secret hidden agenda is Dion's plan to raise taxes, spend hand over fist into deficit or both raise taxes and spend into deficit, or to go back on his promises - as proven by his $12 billion budget black hole in his campaign commitments. Just take a look at Finance Critic John McCallum's secret conference call confessions to Liberal candidates and MPs.

Dion is not a leader, he's a fraud.

[Хahar 🤔]

But raising taxes is good!

Seriously. We've had all this bullcrap in California.