Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Doing a few demographic maps (of the 2006 census! yay!) to get a proper feel for things. Here's the key for the (or a) very basic set;



I: Median HH Income
LI: % classified as "low income"
M: Management occupations (not to be confused with the "managerial occupation" catagory in the U.S, Britain, etc, though they are related. It's a smaller and richer group of people)
T: Trades & etc occupations; chosen because it's a "traditional" blue collar group not directly dependent on manufacturing and etc.
NW: Non-White (officially "visible minorities")
D: % with degrees
Mf: % employed in manufacturing
Un: unemployment

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll admit to being surprised at the low income % in Willowdale. And quite how low the median hh income is in Toronto Centre.

[Hash]

Demographic maps! Yay

I'm working on Montreal and Laval. I'll do Ottawa after that. And then maybe Vancouver.

[Verily]

Sunday - September 14, 2008

Nanos Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 38% (nc)
Liberals - 30% (nc)
New Democrats - 17% (+2)
Greens - 9% (+1)
Bloc Québécois - 6% (-3)

As those numbers might suggest, the big day-to-day change was in Quebec, where the Bloc crashed against yesterday while the NDP picked up most of their decline. Probably just statistical noise.

Nanos Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Conservatives - 29% (-3)
Bloc Québécois - 26% (-8)
Liberals - 24% (+4)
New Democrats - 16% (+6)
Greens - 6% (+1)

[Hash]

Dear God.

[Hash]

Angus-Reid has officially earned 'joke pollster' status. Harris-Decima, meet Zogby.

Their BC numbers
Con 36
Green 26
NDP 24
Liberal 13

More sh**t here: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

[Verily]

Angus-Reid has officially earned 'joke pollster' status. Harris-Decima, meet Zogby.

Their BC numbers
Con 36
Green 26
NDP 24
Liberal 13

More sh**t here: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

It's funny that they can actually have really reasonable numbers like those for Quebec and Alberta while then obviously being completely wrong in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada.

[Smid]

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=yD0sb3HQPik

"Do you like handcuffs?"

I tell you what, he has a fantastic sense of humour!

[Cubby]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

Why? They're both centre-left parties.

Je n'aime pas les verts

[cinyc]

Angus-Reid has officially earned 'joke pollster' status. Harris-Decima, meet Zogby.

Their BC numbers
Con 36
Green 26
NDP 24
Liberal 13

More sh**t here: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

1) It's an online poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

2) The MOE for a B.C. subsample is usually 6-8 points, depending on the pollster.  If it's 7 points, the Liberals can be at 21% while the Greens are at 20% within the margin of error.

3) I said it before and I'll say it again, even though I've been accused of not understanding Canadian politics when I originally said it:  The Green Shift will hurt Stephane Dion and the Liberals in B.C., which already has an unpopular carbon tax.  Even if you think Canadians want to be taxed more "for the planet", Dion is a terrible salesman who doesn't speak English well.   The Liberals will have a hard time selling this as revenue neutral, especially when it isn't to everyone in its current formulation.

[Hash]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

Why? They're both centre-left parties.

Je n'aime pas les verts

The NDP and Liberals don't get along very well.

[Verily]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

Why? They're both centre-left parties.

Je n'aime pas les verts

The NDP and Liberals don't get along very well.

Understatement of the century.

[minionofmidas]

Nanos Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Conservatives - 29% (-3)
Bloc Québécois - 26% (-8)
Liberals - 24% (+4)
New Democrats - 16% (+6)
Greens - 6% (+1)

On these figures Duceppe might fall to an NDP challenge.

[Verily]

According to Wikipedia, the Conservatives now have selected all of their candidates (307), as has the Bloc (75, covering all of the Quebec ridings). Just worth noting, although it's been obvious for a while, that the NDP will be the only party running a full slate this election (unless a minor party manages the unexpected): The Liberals are not opposing May, the Conservatives are not opposing Arthur, the Bloc is only in Quebec, and the Greens are not opposing Dion or Casey.

[Verily]

Monday - September 15, 2008

Nanos Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 37% (-1)
Liberals - 31% (+1)
New Democrats - 18% (+1)
Greens - 9% (nc)
Bloc Québécois - 6% (nc)

No major changes on the regional level from yesterday. I'll include the Quebec subsample every day just to give a better sense of how the Bloc is polling.

Nanos Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Bloc Québécois - 26% (nc)
Conservatives - 26% (-3)
Liberals - 23% (-1)
New Democrats - 17% (+1)
Greens - 8% (+2)

[Хahar 🤔]

I can't decide whether to support the Liberals or the NDP, so I'll support both.

That's quite an interesting combo of support right there.

Why? They're both centre-left parties.

Je n'aime pas les verts

Nope. The Liberals are centrist.

[Hash]

Angus-Reid has officially earned 'joke pollster' status. Harris-Decima, meet Zogby.

Their BC numbers
Con 36
Green 26
NDP 24
Liberal 13

More sh**t here: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

It's funny that they can actually have really reasonable numbers like those for Quebec and Alberta while then obviously being completely wrong in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada.

For fun, I applied the numbers to the Hill and Knowlton predictor (which has its issues too).

We get
NDP 19
Con 13
Green 4
Liberal 0

Lolz.

[Verily]

I suppose, for fairness, we should post the Harris-Decima tracking poll, too.

Monday - September 15, 2008

Harris-Decima Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 38% (-2)
Liberals - 27% (+1)
New Democrats - 16% (+1)
Greens - 9% (nc)
Bloc Québécois - 8% (nc)

Harris-Decima Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Bloc Québécois - 34% (nc)
Conservatives - 27% (-4)
Liberals - 21% (+3)
New Democrats - 10% (+1)
Greens - 6% (+1)

[MaxQue]

According to the Liberals' website, the Liberal candidate in my riding is named Mark Canada. That is a very funny name. And this is not a joke.

[Verily]

EKOS poll
Conservatives - 35% (-1)
Liberals - 25% (-1)
New Democrats - 19% (nc)
Greens - 11% (nc)
Bloc Québécois - 9% (+1)

EKOS poll (Quebec subsample)
Bloc Québécois - 33% (+4)
Conservatives - 25% (nc)
Liberals - 21% (-1)
New Democrats - 13% (-1)
Greens - 8% (-1)

They have some interesting stuff in the demographics breakdown. The only parties with no apparent income-related voting patterns are the Greens and Conservatives. (The Conservatives do have a slight lean to the higher incomes, but only marginally.) The Liberals receive disproportionate support from the wealthy while the NDP and Bloc receive more support from the poor.

Age-wise, unsurprisingly, the traditional parties (the Conservatives and Liberals) are strongest among older voters and weaker among younger voters while the NDP, Bloc and especially Greens are strongest with younger voters. The Liberals remain behind the NDP and statistically tied with the Greens among under-25s, and in fact the NDP is now in a statistical tie with the Conservatives in the youngest age group.

There is some gender gap in Conservative and NDP support (men are more likely to be Conservative, women to be NDP), but the differences are slight. The Liberals, Greens and Bloc exhibit no appreciable gender gaps.

[Хahar 🤔]

According to the Liberals' website, the Liberal candidate in my riding is named Mark Canada. That is a very funny name. And this is not a joke.

Wow. That is funny.

[cinyc]

Mustel Group British Columbia Poll
Conservatives 39% (+2 from 2006 election)
NDP 25% (-4)
Liberals 24% (-4)
Greens 12% (+7)

September 2-8; MOE +/-3.6% (n=750)
----------
Finally, a B.C. province-wide poll with a reasonable MOE.

[Verily]

Tuesday - September 15, 2008

Nanos Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 38% (+1)
Liberals - 31% (nc)
New Democrats - 17% (-1)
Greens - 8% (-1)
Bloc Québécois - 6% (nc)

Nanos Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Bloc Québécois - 26% (nc)
Conservatives - 25% (-1)
Liberals - 24% (+1)
New Democrats - 17% (nc)
Greens - 8% (nc)

Not much to report today. The Quebec subsample has been showing a steady Conservative decline for quite some time, enough to say that it's probably a trend. Otherwise the subsamples and the overall poll have been pretty steady.

[Verily]

EKOS poll
Conservatives - 38% (+3)
Liberals - 23% (-2)
New Democrats - 19% (nc)
Greens - 11% (nc)
Bloc Québécois - 9% (nc)

EKOS poll (Quebec subsample)
Bloc Québécois - 32% (-1)
Conservatives - 25% (nc)
Liberals - 20% (-1)
New Democrats - 14% (+1)
Greens - 8% (nc)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tuesday - September 15, 2008

Nanos Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 38% (+1)
Liberals - 31% (nc)
New Democrats - 17% (-1)
Greens - 8% (-1)
Bloc Québécois - 6% (nc)

Nanos Tracking Poll (Quebec subsample)
Bloc Québécois - 26% (nc)
Conservatives - 25% (-1)
Liberals - 24% (+1)
New Democrats - 17% (nc)
Greens - 8% (nc)

Not much to report today. The Quebec subsample has been showing a steady Conservative decline for quite some time, enough to say that it's probably a trend. Otherwise the subsamples and the overall poll have been pretty steady.

O.K, I don't put much stock into subsamples these days, but the NDP polling the same in Quebec as Canada as a whole is worth remarking on. Fwiw, 17% is the % they polled in Outremont in the 2006 election; highest in the province IIRC.

Oh... and the Tories tied with the Bloc also... yes...