Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

The Election Prediction Project does - and they're usually pretty accurate.  As of right now, they're projecting Tories 111
Grits 71
Bloc 29
NDP 18
Others 2 (both independents)
Too Close 77

Election Prediction is the best for seat predictions.

After me, of course. I think I did better than them for the provincial election. Anyone remember that?

On a lighter side, I was more accurate than electionpredictions.org by 2 seats I got 93.5% correct. Had I not been such a partisan hack, I would have done better I also got one better than Democraticspace.org   I should start my own site!

Unfortunately, the map to prove it is wrong, but I do remember six of my mistakes were:
Ottawa Centre
Oshawa
York South-Weston
Hamilton Mountain
Sarnia-Lambton
Kitchener-Conestoga
Thornhill

I'm sure you can see the pattern I've learned my mistakes, I will be a lot less biased with my predictions in NDP marginals

[minionofmidas]

Is it just me, or has that site (the predictions, not the comments. Emphatically not) developped a clear anti-NDP bias of late?

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis for Ontario:

Safe Conservative
Durham
Whitby-Oshawa
Dufferin-Caledon
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
Niagara Falls
Niagara-West Glanbrook
Simcoe North
Simcoe-Grey
York-Simcoe
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Leeds-Grenville
Northumberland-Quinte West
Prince Edward-Hastings
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Ottawa West-Nepean
Carleton-Mississippi Mills
Nepean-Carleton
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Cambridge
Kitchener-Conestoga
Wellington-Halton Hills
Elgin-Middlesex-London
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Essex
Haldimand-Norfolk
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Oxford
Perth-Wellington
Sarnia-Lambton
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Lean Conservative
Oshawa
St. Catharines
Barrie
Burlington
Peterborough
Ottawa-Orleans
Huron-Bruce (pick up)

Safe Liberal
Toronto Centre
Davenport
St. Paul's
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Willowdale
York Centre
York South-Weston
York West
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough Southwest
Scarborough-Agincourt
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge River
Ajax-Pickering
Pickering-Scarborough East
Markham-Unionville
Oak Ridges-Markham
Richmond Hill
Thornhill
Vaughan
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Brampton West
Brampton-Springdale
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Mississauga South
Mississauga-Brampton South
Mississauga-Erindale
Kingston and the Islands
Ottawa South
Ottawa-Vanier
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener-Waterloo
London North Centre
Nipissing-Timiskaming
Sudbury

Lean Liberal
Beaches-East York
Mississauga-Streetsville
Oakville
Welland
Guelph
Kenora

Safe NDP
Toronto-Danforth
Hamilton Centre
Ottawa Centre
Windsor West
Windsor-Tecumseh
Timmins-James Bay

Lean NDP
Trinity-Spadina
Sault Ste. Marie

Too close to call
Parkdale-High Park
Newmarket-Aurora
Halton
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
London-Fanshawe
London West
Brant
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
Nickel Belt
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North

[Hash]

I'd put Ottawa-Orleans in the tossup category.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd put Ottawa-Orleans in the tossup category.

Why?

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec:

Safe Bloc
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Abitibi-Temiscamingue
Manicouagan
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup
Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques
Bas Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour
Joliette
Montcalm
Repentigny
Drummond
Sherbrooke
Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot
Beauharnois-Salaberry
Chambly-Borduas
Chateauguay-Saint Constant
Longeuil-Pierre Boucher
Saint Bruno-Saint Hubert
Saint Jean
Saint Lambert
Vercheres-Les Patriotes
Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
Laurentides-Labelle
Marc Aurele Fortin
Riviere des Mille Isles
Riviere du Nord
Terrebonne-Blainville
Alfred Pellan
Hochelaga
La Pointe de l'Ile
Laurier-Sainte Marie
Laval 

Lean Bloc
Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haut Cote Nord
Haute Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia
Berthier-Maskinonge
Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Safe Conservative
Jonquiere-Alma
Roberval-Lac Saint Jean
Beauport-Limoilou
Charlesbourg-Haute Saint Charles
Louis Hebert
Louis Saint Laurent
Beauce
Levis-Bellechasse
Lotbiniere-Chutes de la Chaudiere
Megantic-L'Erable
Pontiac

Safe Liberal
Bourassa
Honore-Mercier
Lac Saint Louis
LaSalle-Emard
Laval-Les Iles
Mount Royal
Notre Dame de Grace-Lachine
Pierrefonds-Dollard
Rosemont-La Petite Patrie
Saint Laurent-Cartierville
Saint Leonard-Saint Michel

Lean Liberal
Hull-Aylmer
Westmount-Ville Marie

Safe NDP
Outremont

Safe Independent
Portneuf-Jacques Cartier

Too close to call
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Quebec
Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine
Saint Maurice-Champlain
Trois-Rivieres
Brome-Missisquoi
Compton-Stanstead
Richmond-Arthabaska
Shefford
Brossard-La Prairie
Gatineau
Ahuntsic
Jeanne-Le Ber
Papineau

[Hash]

So, you're predicting about 16ish Tories in Quebec? More reasonable than the '38' I heard somebody say on the telly (though I think it was a Tory hack).

I'm unsure about your Gatineau call for the NDP.

[Hash]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

[Hatman 🍁]

So, you're predicting about 16ish Tories in Quebec? More reasonable than the '38' I heard somebody say on the telly (though I think it was a Tory hack).

I'm unsure about your Gatineau call for the NDP.

Well, I have no idea about Gatineau, to be honest. I must admit, I'm only judging from the comments on electionpredictions.org. I should probably venture into the riding and see how the sign war is going.

My feeling is, with the NDP polling high in Quebec, it seems hard to not give them more than one seat. The Liberals have a no name candidate, so the federalist vote (which is high) will lean to Boivin.

[MaxQue]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

I totally agree with you on Alberta. I won't say anything on Ontario I don't know very well Ontario political life.

[Verily]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

Edmonton Centre should be Safe Conservative.

[Хahar 🤔]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

Edmonton Centre should be Safe Conservative.

DS had those too as Too Close to Call.

[Verily]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

Edmonton Centre should be Safe Conservative.

DS had those too as Too Close to Call.

Doesn't mean he's right. Look what happened in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont last time. Without Landslide Annie, the Liberals haven't a prayer in Edmonton Centre unless they're way ahead nationally.

[Хahar 🤔]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

Edmonton Centre should be Safe Conservative.

DS had those too as Too Close to Call.

Doesn't mean he's right. Look what happened in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont last time. Without Landslide Annie, the Liberals haven't a prayer in Edmonton Centre unless they're way ahead nationally.

Really says a lot more about him than it does about those ridings.

[Verily]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

Edmonton Centre should be Safe Conservative.

DS had those too as Too Close to Call.

Doesn't mean he's right. Look what happened in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont last time. Without Landslide Annie, the Liberals haven't a prayer in Edmonton Centre unless they're way ahead nationally.

Really says a lot more about him than it does about those ridings.

To be fair to him, his model is mostly mathematical, not "feeling based". The result in 2006 was close, it just won't be remotely close this time. FWIW, DemocraticSpace's predictions improve immensely as election day approaches as he adds extra variables and tweaks to account for local factors.

And, party-wise, I think he was supporting the NDP until they tried to block May from entering the debate, and is now supporting the Greens. Maybe he went back to the NDP after Layton recanted.

[Hatman 🍁]

DS is still way inferior to electionpredictions.org. I laugh at some of the BS on his site. The simple fact that Ottawa South is in the TCTC (leaning Conservative) column is reason for this.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

I totally agree with you on Alberta. I won't say anything on Ontario I don't know very well Ontario political life.

What about Quebec?

[Verily]

Another bizarre scandal for the NDP in British Columbia (this one more of a "scandal"):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080921.wndpapology0921/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

Also, apparently the NDP lost its candidate in Vancouver Quadra for the same reasons as it lost its candidate in West Vancouver. The Liberals were probably safe to hold the seat before, but they definitely are now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another bizarre scandal for the NDP in British Columbia (this one more of a "scandal"):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080921.wndpapology0921/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

I kinda know Mr. West. He wanted me to make some maps for him in the past. :S

[MaxQue]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

I totally agree with you on Alberta. I won't say anything on Ontario I don't know very well Ontario political life.

What about Quebec?

Tomorrow or Tuesday, when I will have more time to analyse all the ridings.

[Verily]

I'm taking a stab at predicting the most unpredictable province: British Columbia. Pretty colors will come later. "(Against X)" alongside Lean and Toss-up holds indicates the party that I think has at least a marginal chance of winning the seat.

Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca: Toss-up NDP gain from Liberal
Nanaimo—Alberni: Safe Conservative hold
Nanaimo—Cowichan: Safe NDP hold
Saanich—Gulf Islands: Toss-up Conservative hold (against Greens)
Vancouver Island North: Toss-up NDP hold (against Conservatives)
Victoria: Safe NDP hold

B.C. Southern Interior: Lean NDP hold (against Conservatives)
Cariboo—Prince George: Safe Conservative hold
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo: Lean Conservative hold (against NDP)
Kelowna—Lake Country: Safe Conservative hold
Kootenay—Columbia: Safe Conservative hold
Okanagan—Coquihalla: Safe Conservative hold
Okanagan—Shuswap: Safe Conservative hold
Prince George—Peace River: Safe Conservative hold
Skeena—Bulkley Valley: Safe NDP hold

Abbotsford: Safe Conservative hold
Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon: Safe Conservative hold
Delta—Richmond East: Safe Conservative hold
Fleetwood—Port Kells: Lean Conservative hold (against Liberals)*
Langley: Safe Conservative hold
Newton—North Delta: Toss-up Conservative gain from Liberal
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission: Toss-up Conservative hold (against NDP)
Richmond: Toss-up Conservative gain from Liberal
Surrey North: Toss-up Conservative gain from NDP

Burnaby—Douglas: Lean NDP hold (against Conservatives)
Burnaby—New Westminster: Lean NDP hold (against Conservatives)
New Westminster—Coquitlam: Toss-up NDP hold (against Conservatives)
North Vancouver: Toss-up Conservative gain from Liberal
Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam: Safe Conservative hold
Vancouver Centre: Toss-up Liberal hold (against Greens)
Vancouver East: Safe NDP hold
Vancouver Kingsway: Toss-up Liberal hold (against NDP)
Vancouver Quadra: Lean Liberal hold (against Conservatives)
Vancouver South: Safe Liberal hold
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea-to-Sky Country: Toss-up Conservative gain from Green

*If any seat goes against the grain, it will be this one. British Columbia always has at least one completely wacky result, so I may predict this as a Liberal gain later simply due to inevitable wackiness.


British Columbia
Conservative: 21 (+5)
NDP: 10 (nc)
Liberal: 4 (-4)
Green: 0 (-1)


Some interesting polls lately, too. Decima shows the NDP to have moved ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, and the Greens to have reached a tie with the Liberals (at 18%) in BC. Both of those would portend massive disasters for the Liberals; in Quebec, that would mean losses of more than just the two NDP-vulnerable seats (Hull and Westmount) to the NDP and would be a major help to the NDP against the Bloc in Gatineau. In BC, that would make Adrianne Carr a very good chance to snag Vancouver Centre and also put the squeeze on the Liberals hard in Saanich and West Vancouver.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would argue that Juan de Fuca is not going NDP and Surrey North is staying put.

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of British Columbia

Safe Conservative
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Delta-Richmond East
Fleetwood-Port Kells
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Abbotsford
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
Langley
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Cariboo-Prince George
Prince George-Peace River
Kelowna-Lake Country
Kootenay-Columbia
Okanagan-Coquihalla
Okanagan-Shuswap
Nanaimo-Alberni
Saanich-Gulf Islands

Lean Conservative
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country (pick up)
Vancouver Island North (pick up)

Safe NDP
Vancouver East
Surrey North
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Nanaimo-Cowichan
Victoria

Lean NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster
British Columbia Southern Interior

Safe Liberal
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver South

Lean Liberal
Vancouver Quadra

Too close to call
North Vancouver
Burnaby-Douglas
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Richmond
Newton-North Delta
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

[Hash]

Nominations have closed.

The Stalinists are running in Ottawa-Vanier

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, the Greens weren't even close to nominating candidates in every riding. Ha!

And correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like the NDP is the only party to have nominated candidates in every riding.