2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

Hamburg CDU and Greens have a coalition treaty ready. It has to pass a Green state Party  convention on April 27th though - this is likely but by no means certain.

[minionofmidas]

Ugh. Massive majority for the it.

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria poll by Infratest-Dimap for ARD:

CSU: 48%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 10%
FDP: 6%
Freie Wähler: 5%
The Left: 4%
Others: 4%

[Tender Branson]

If the Left would cross 5%, the seat distribution according to Hare/Niemeyer would be:

CSU: 89
SPD: 43
Greens: 19
FDP: 11
Freie Wähler: 9
The Left: 9

Total: 180 seats

[Tender Branson]

7 parties will contest the June 8 state elections in Tyrol:

ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens, FPÖ, KPÖ, Citizen-Forum Tyrol, The Christians

There's also a new poll out:

Gallup for the newspaper OE24

ÖVP: 41% (-9)
SPÖ: 21% (-5)
Greens: 18% (+2)
CFT: 12% (+12)
FPÖ: 8% (+/-0)

If this poll is accurate, the Greens have a shot at taking the capital and university city - Innsbruck - for the first time. The 2003 result in the city was: ÖVP 34.8%, SPÖ 28.6%, Greens 26.9%, FPÖ 7.8%, Communists 1.8%

[Bono]

Where do these Citizen-Forum guys stand?

[Tender Branson]

Where do these Citizen-Forum guys stand?

Just in Tyrol, it´s a state election.

BTW: I think it´s very likely that the FPÖ is getting more than the 8% in this poll. Something like 12% is not out of question. The Communists may also get close to 1%.

[Bono]

Where do these Citizen-Forum guys stand?

Just in Tyrol, it´s a state election.

BTW: I think it´s very likely that the FPÖ is getting more than the 8% in this poll. Something like 12% is not out of question. The Communists may also get close to 1%.

I mean politically, not physically.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where do these Citizen-Forum guys stand?

Just in Tyrol, it´s a state election.

BTW: I think it´s very likely that the FPÖ is getting more than the 8% in this poll. Something like 12% is not out of question. The Communists may also get close to 1%.

I mean politically, not physically.

Their founder/leader is a former ÖVP politician, I think.

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol Poll by Market Institute:

ÖVP: 39% (-11)
SPÖ: 22% (-4)
Greens: 16% (+1)
Citizen-Forum Tyrol: 13% (+13)
FPÖ: 9% (+1)
KPÖ: 1% (-)

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol Poll by Gallup:

ÖVP: 40% (-10)
SPÖ: 19% (-7)
Citizen-Forum Tyrol: 17% (+17)
Greens: 14% (-2)
FPÖ: 10% (+2)

[BenNebbich]

something seems to be wrong with the numbers of the greens.

[Tender Branson]

something seems to be wrong with the numbers of the greens.

Why ? It´s due to rounding. The Greens got 15.6% in the 2003 elections.

[Tender Branson]

Nationally, the Right-Wingers are reaching new heights in polling:

ÖVP: 33% (-1)
SPÖ: 31% (-4)
FPÖ: 17% (+6)
Greens: 14% (+3)
BZÖ: 5% (+1)

Getting worse:

New poll by Market for news.at:

ÖVP: 34% (-)
SPÖ: 28% (-7)
FPÖ: 19% (+8)
Greens: 15% (+4)
BZÖ: 3% (-1)
Others (KPÖ): 1% (-3)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nationally, the Right-Wingers are reaching new heights in polling:

ÖVP: 33% (-1)
SPÖ: 31% (-4)
FPÖ: 17% (+6)
Greens: 14% (+3)
BZÖ: 5% (+1)

Getting worse:

New poll by Market for news.at:

ÖVP: 34% (-)
SPÖ: 28% (-7)
FPÖ: 19% (+8)
Greens: 15% (+4)
BZÖ: 3% (-1)
Others (KPÖ): 1% (-3)

So... why?

[Tender Branson]

Nationally, the Right-Wingers are reaching new heights in polling:

ÖVP: 33% (-1)
SPÖ: 31% (-4)
FPÖ: 17% (+6)
Greens: 14% (+3)
BZÖ: 5% (+1)

Getting worse:

New poll by Market for news.at:

ÖVP: 34% (-)
SPÖ: 28% (-7)
FPÖ: 19% (+8)
Greens: 15% (+4)
BZÖ: 3% (-1)
Others (KPÖ): 1% (-3)

So... why?

Because of an incompetent Social-Democratic chancellor who has broken election promises and has enraged his base with a few of his comments, a defense minister who sent troops to Tchad, despite the fact that Austrians are in a non-interventionist mood, the purchase of not-needed fighter-jets, the passage of the EU Reform treaty without a referendum, as well as the rising fuel prices play into the hands of the Fascist Populist Party of Austria (FPÖ).

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Tyrol State Elections take place. Very interesting, because the current conservative Governor (who, by the way, is married to a distinct relative of StatesRights) is fighting for his political survival. 520.530 people are eligible to vote. I expect turnout to be between 55-65%.

My prediction:

ÖVP: 41%
SPÖ: 20%
Greens: 16%
FPÖ: 12%
CFT: 10%
KPÖ: 0.6%
CPÖ: 0.4%

Here is an informative graphic of all state elections and governors so far:

http://images.derstandard.at/20080606/grafiktirol300.jpg

[Hash]

Go Greenies I guess, they're the only party in Austria that appeals to me, ÖVP in a distant second.

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll:

ÖVP: 41% (-9)
Citizen Forum Tyrol: 20% (+20)
SPÖ: 15% (-11)
FPÖ: 12% (+4)
Greens: 10% (-6)

Others: 2% (+2)

[Hash]

lol SPD.

[Tender Branson]

lol SPD.

SPÖ, not SPD. It´s not Germany ...

Meanwhile 64% of all precincts are counted:

ÖVP: 44.7%
CFT: 17.9%
SPÖ: 15.2%
FPÖ: 11.7%
Greens: 8.1%

KPÖ: 1.5%
DC: 1.0%

Turnout: 64.4%

Most precincts from the capital Innsbruck have to report though, which will lead to an increase in the Green and SPÖ vote and a decrease in the ÖVP and FPÖ vote.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like a protest vote. A big slap in the face of the 3 parties (ÖVP/SPÖ/Greens) who passed the EU Reform Treaty in Parliament without a referendum. They lost a combined 24-26% ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Was the turnout lower than usual in any way because of the Austria-Croatia match?

[Tender Branson]

Was the turnout lower than usual in any way because of the Austria-Croatia match?

No, turnout was actually 2% higher than 5 years ago. Innsbruck is the only city out. But it should be counted in the next 30 minutes. I´ll post the final result when Innsbruck is counted.

Interesting fact:

In the city of Telfs, where a Mosque was built recently, the FPÖ's share increased from 9% to 23% ...

[Tender Branson]

The city of Innsbruck is in and their result is as followed:

ÖVP: 28.2% (-6.7)
CFT: 20.3% (+20.3)
Greens: 20.0% (-6.9)
SPÖ: 14.9% (-13.7)
FPÖ: 13.7% (+5.9)

KPÖ: 2.0% (+0.1)
DC: 1.0% (+1.0)

That leads to the following final statewide result:

ÖVP: 40.4% (-9.5) - 128.471 votes - 15 seats
CFT: 18.3% (+18.3) - 58.114 votes - 7 seats
SPÖ: 15.6% (-10.3) - 49.688 votes - 6 seats
FPÖ: 12.7% (+4.7) - 40.199 votes - 4 seats
Greens: 10.4% (-5.1) - 33.020 votes - 4 seats

DC: 1.4% (+1.4) - 4.393 votes
KPÖ: 1.2% (+0.5) - 3.738 votes

Turnout: 317.623 - 62.1% (+1.8%)