UK Election 2010

[afleitch]

Intersting videos from 1983

The tail end of Shirley Williams defeat in Crosby and Roy Jenkins victory in Glasgow Hillhead. David Owen almost looks like he's laughing after Williams' defeat. Edit: Also spotted the Stockton North result (Bill Rodgers in 3rd)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftkdkYqGGRU&feature=related

Tony Benn ousted in Bristol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8og8IRthWk&feature=related

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boundary changes make those maps far less interesting than they first appear, alas. There's also inconsistency over by-elections. And some things that are just errors.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Intersting videos from 1983

The tail end of Shirley Williams defeat in Crosby and Roy Jenkins victory in Glasgow Hillhead. David Owen almost looks like he's laughing after Williams' defeat. Edit: Also spotted the Stockton North result (Bill Rodgers in 3rd)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftkdkYqGGRU&feature=related

Tony Benn ousted in Bristol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8og8IRthWk&feature=related

When the hell did this happen? I've combed the known interwebs for years looking for comprehensive video of UK elections, seems it crops up right after I stop looking WOOOOOO THANK YOU, and screw you at the same time for my subsequent failure in physics tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

Nick Clegg says something on the record that he probably shouldn't have: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/25/nick-clegg-coalition-conservatives

[Verily]

Nick Clegg says something on the record that he probably shouldn't have: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/25/nick-clegg-coalition-conservatives

If anything, that's a step backwards. He'd previously said that he would negotiate with whoever had the most votes, but his statement here only precludes working with Labour if Labour comes in third--not if they come in second.

Tactically, it's the right strategy anyway. The Labour-supporting media will continue to focus all fire on the Conservatives; it's too much of an obsession to leave off. But the Conservative-supporting media has been pushing anti-LD of late. This helps to defuse that.

[The Mikado]

It's actually quite reasonable.  A Tory-Lib government would be a damn good one in my opinion, and by all indications if the election results come in as they look now (Tory 1st, Lib 2nd, Labour 3rd in the vote count), he's right that Labour would've lost all legitimacy to lead.

A Tory-Lib coalition would force the Conservatives to take the edge off their extreme Euroskepticism, which is my biggest objection to the Conservatives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour-supporting media

That's a rather grand term for the Mirror, don't you think?

[Mr. Morden]

It's actually quite reasonable.  A Tory-Lib government would be a damn good one in my opinion, and by all indications if the election results come in as they look now (Tory 1st, Lib 2nd, Labour 3rd in the vote count), he's right that Labour would've lost all legitimacy to lead.

A Tory-Lib coalition would force the Conservatives to take the edge off their extreme Euroskepticism, which is my biggest objection to the Conservatives.

Sorry if this question has already been asked to death, but what's the most likely form for a Tory-Lib coalition anyway?  Does that just mean that the Cons would lead a minority government on their own, and the LDs wouldn't formally be part of it, but they'd prop up the government in votes in exchange for certain policy concessions from the Conservatives?

Or are we talking about a full blown coalition government in which the two parties actually divide up cabinet ministries among themselves?

[Barnes]

Another question from across the pond:

How close do you guys think that the Conservatives would have to get to a majority to want to form a minority government instead of a coalition? I mean, they really wound't want to if they were, say, 60 seats short, would they?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's the majority possibilities on InTrade

No 65.0
Tory 30.5
Labour 8.3
Other 3.9

I think that the no majority might actually be undervalued.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sorry if this question has already been asked to death, but what's the most likely form for a Tory-Lib coalition anyway?  Does that just mean that the Cons would lead a minority government on their own, and the LDs wouldn't formally be part of it, but they'd prop up the government in votes in exchange for certain policy concessions from the Conservatives?

Or are we talking about a full blown coalition government in which the two parties actually divide up cabinet ministries among themselves?

No one knows; all is speculation.

[afleitch]

Sorry if this question has already been asked to death, but what's the most likely form for a Tory-Lib coalition anyway?  Does that just mean that the Cons would lead a minority government on their own, and the LDs wouldn't formally be part of it, but they'd prop up the government in votes in exchange for certain policy concessions from the Conservatives?

Or are we talking about a full blown coalition government in which the two parties actually divide up cabinet ministries among themselves?

No one knows; all is speculation.

Also worth noting that the Conservatives running an administration just short of an overall majority is managable. It is up to all opposition parties to unite and vote together (and in terms of numbers) to defeat a particular bill. It cannot be assumed that the opposition will be united at all times.

Thats how the SNP are able to get so much through at Holyrood

[Democratic Hawk]

Nick Clegg says something on the record that he probably shouldn't have: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/25/nick-clegg-coalition-conservatives

Yet, this very same party, locally, runs on something as petty as Gordon Brown standing outside 10 Downing Street with Margaret Thatcher (i.e. playing on residual local antipathy towards her) yet there's 'evidence' that they'll jump into bed with the Party of Thatcher (I'm sceptical as to whether the Conservative Party has 'centred'), in the event of a hung parliament, having played on residual anti-Thatcher sentiments for Labour votes

All the Lib Dems I've confronted on the knock don't want a Cameron-led coalition, or Conservative, government. Heck, Billy Bragg is voting Lib Dem because he want's "democratic socialism"

[Democratic Hawk]

The oddest thing about that debate was that Brown thought the British economic world would end, if the Tory plan to cut spending by six billion pounds were adopted, which sounds ludicrous to me. I don't think such a small sum would matter that much either way. Clegg was sort of into utopian vagueness, and Cameron outside of his budget cut, and avoiding taxes on employment, was just vague period, although effective in his counter punching. And there did not seem that much difference in specific policy proposals (as opposed to vague sloganeering) between any of them, that came out of the debate, outside of weapons stuff.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/19/conservative-victory-property-price-crash

[You kip if you want to...]

With all this LibDem "We won't work with Gordon!" talk, could we be looking at a Prime Minister David Miliband in a few weeks?

[afleitch]

Oh dear, this old chestnut from Nick Clegg has been brought up again. From an interview with the Independent in 2005:

'I think breaking up the NHS is exactly what you do need to do to make it a more responsive service.' 'We do want to break up the NHS,' 'We don't want to privatise it, we want to break it up. Should the debate be taboo? Of course not, absolutely not.'

Cleggs wish to move to an insurance system is not suprising to anyone who's read The Orange Book...

[KuntaKinte]

'I think breaking up the NHS is exactly what you do need to do to make it a more responsive service.' 'We do want to break up the NHS,' 'We don't want to privatise it, we want to break it up. Should the debate be taboo? Of course not, absolutely not.'

How much potential to hurt the LD would this statement have, given that the media put its focus on it?
Is the NHS a sacred cow ín today's Britain?

[afleitch]

'I think breaking up the NHS is exactly what you do need to do to make it a more responsive service.' 'We do want to break up the NHS,' 'We don't want to privatise it, we want to break it up. Should the debate be taboo? Of course not, absolutely not.'

How much potential to hurt the LD would this statement have, given that the media put its focus on it?
Is the NHS a sacred cow ín today's Britain?

With all due credit, Clegg is right in that what the NHS is and it's structure should be up for discussion. In the Orange Book he gave support to the idea to reform the NHS as a 'European Style' insurance system. But the NHS is such a 'sacred cow' that open and honest discussion about its future is difficult. If Cameron (or Brown for that matter) suggested this he'd be crucified. It's only because the Lib Dems (we thought...and to be honest they thought) never had a chance of government that such discussions could take place in that arena. And don't get me wrong but that's a good thing.

The Lib Dems at present do hold a more 'centre-right' position on the NHS than the Tories (which is why they should be given the health portfolio in a Tory coalition...), the propose bigger tax cuts and deeper public spending cuts than the Tories despite some fanboys thinking they are the second coming of Labour :/

Labour would do well to remind the voters of this....

[Mr. Morden]

Sorry if this question has already been asked to death, but what's the most likely form for a Tory-Lib coalition anyway?  Does that just mean that the Cons would lead a minority government on their own, and the LDs wouldn't formally be part of it, but they'd prop up the government in votes in exchange for certain policy concessions from the Conservatives?

Or are we talking about a full blown coalition government in which the two parties actually divide up cabinet ministries among themselves?

No one knows; all is speculation.

I see.  So heading into the election, no one knows which combination of parties might coalesce to form a government, and even immediately *after* the election, it might be far from obvious which parties will be in the government.

Sounds like the elections in Iraq. 

[Psychic Octopus]

With all this LibDem "We won't work with Gordon!" talk, could we be looking at a Prime Minister David Miliband in a few weeks?

Wouldn't Straw be equally likely, or am I just absorbed in the 2008 hype?

[Smid]

Sorry if this question has already been asked to death, but what's the most likely form for a Tory-Lib coalition anyway?  Does that just mean that the Cons would lead a minority government on their own, and the LDs wouldn't formally be part of it, but they'd prop up the government in votes in exchange for certain policy concessions from the Conservatives?

Or are we talking about a full blown coalition government in which the two parties actually divide up cabinet ministries among themselves?

No one knows; all is speculation.

I see.  So heading into the election, no one knows which combination of parties might coalesce to form a government, and even immediately *after* the election, it might be far from obvious which parties will be in the government.

Sounds like the elections in Iraq. 

Which is precisely the reason the Tories should be reminding voters that the only way to guarantee no more Labour Government is to vote Tory. Some sort of advertisement with a picture/video of Blair (preferably laughing), followed by a picture/video of Brown, followed by a question mark with a voiceover along the lines of "Nick Clegg won't rule out another Labour Prime Minister." Something like that, anyway.

[afleitch]

Sorry if this question has already been asked to death, but what's the most likely form for a Tory-Lib coalition anyway?  Does that just mean that the Cons would lead a minority government on their own, and the LDs wouldn't formally be part of it, but they'd prop up the government in votes in exchange for certain policy concessions from the Conservatives?

Or are we talking about a full blown coalition government in which the two parties actually divide up cabinet ministries among themselves?

No one knows; all is speculation.

I see.  So heading into the election, no one knows which combination of parties might coalesce to form a government, and even immediately *after* the election, it might be far from obvious which parties will be in the government.

Sounds like the elections in Iraq. 

Which is precisely the reason the Tories should be reminding voters that the only way to guarantee no more Labour Government is to vote Tory. Some sort of advertisement with a picture/video of Blair (preferably laughing), followed by a picture/video of Brown, followed by a question mark with a voiceover along the lines of "Nick Clegg won't rule out another Labour Prime Minister." Something like that, anyway.

I had the idea of a cutaway of a house where you see Clegg talking to voters on the doorstep while Brown nips in the backdoor...

I'm just not much of a photoshopper

[afleitch]

Nice gadget

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7544741/History-of-the-House-of-Commons.html

[You kip if you want to...]

Sorry if this question has already been asked to death, but what's the most likely form for a Tory-Lib coalition anyway?  Does that just mean that the Cons would lead a minority government on their own, and the LDs wouldn't formally be part of it, but they'd prop up the government in votes in exchange for certain policy concessions from the Conservatives?

Or are we talking about a full blown coalition government in which the two parties actually divide up cabinet ministries among themselves?

No one knows; all is speculation.

I see.  So heading into the election, no one knows which combination of parties might coalesce to form a government, and even immediately *after* the election, it might be far from obvious which parties will be in the government.

Sounds like the elections in Iraq. 

Which is precisely the reason the Tories should be reminding voters that the only way to guarantee no more Labour Government is to vote Tory. Some sort of advertisement with a picture/video of Blair (preferably laughing), followed by a picture/video of Brown, followed by a question mark with a voiceover along the lines of "Nick Clegg won't rule out another Labour Prime Minister." Something like that, anyway.

I had the idea of a cutaway of a house where you see Clegg talking to voters on the doorstep while Brown nips in the backdoor...

I'm just not much of a photoshopper

Something akin to this Labour 2005 one could be effective for the Tories. Only the "good" guy representing Cameron and the "bad" guys Brown and Clegg.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrxXVMUYyKs

[Smid]

Great minds! Mind you, I think that if the LibDems support Labour for Government after the election, it may well cost them support at the next election, especially in the seats they've won off the Tories in the past few elections. Of course, a Coalition government with the Conservatives might also not be in their best interests - I think they're best off propping up a minority Conservative government, while reserving the right to block legislation.