Fox: PA Trump +2 AZ Trump +4

[wbrocks67]

Every Democrat in congress should be shamed for allowing this charade to commence

You do realize Joe Biden is *outperforming* the GCB here in both races right? (by 1% in PA and 2% in AZ), so ...allegedly looks like Democrats in congress could be looking to Joe Biden here for help!

[wbrocks67]

The PA # here is fine, it's completely plausible given that PA polls have generally shown close to a tie on average, and Fox's WI/MI/PA polls all point to a very close race (tie-2pt races)

Fox's Party IDs are ... interesting. I'm not sure if they're going for party registration or party ID; their previous party IDs in 2020 for PA are absurd (D+8, etc.) but now they feel too R-leaning (tie, when reg is still D+4), but I think the most interesting thing here, as I noted in the post above this one is that (for the 100th time), these samples are just kind of R-leaning!

This isn't a Biden thing, the GCB shows basically the same #s among nonwhites, young voters, <45 voters, and Independents (Biden even does better among Independents!) so again, this feels like a consistent matter of just bad sampling among some of these groups. Same with AZ, where Biden outperforms the GCB (R+6) by 2 points. All that said, R+6 GCB for AZ seems... extreme.

As for Arizona... Trump +4 is within MoE, but there's no reason to believe a state that has been inching left will suddenly revert back to a result that's worse than 2016 for Ds. Party ID is R+9 here, which is why Biden wins Independents by 14% and still loses by 4 (he won them by 9 in 2020 when party ID was ... R+9, so riddle me that!)

[Progressive Pessimist]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Really? With the way Biden’s been running his campaign and the primary results I’m actually more confident in his chances than I was a month ago, and their does seem to be slight movement towards Biden but it’s gonna be gradual.

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.

I just feel like a relatively big event like the speech which gives way to lasting headlines (positive ones at that) are the only way Biden can get through his polling malaise. With this one out of the way it's feeling like the bext big opportunity to turn the tides will be the convention.

[Tekken_Guy]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Really? With the way Biden’s been running his campaign and the primary results I’m actually more confident in his chances than I was a month ago, and their does seem to be slight movement towards Biden but it’s gonna be gradual.

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.

I just feel like a relatively big event like the speech which gives way to lasting headlines (positive ones at that) are the only way Biden can get through his polling malaise. With this one out of the way it's feeling like the bext big opportunity to turn the tides will be the convention.

Isn’t your point that the movement towards Biden will take some time and won’t be some massive overnight shift?

[wbrocks67]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Really? With the way Biden’s been running his campaign and the primary results I’m actually more confident in his chances than I was a month ago, and their does seem to be slight movement towards Biden but it’s gonna be gradual.

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.

I just feel like a relatively big event like the speech which gives way to lasting headlines (positive ones at that) are the only way Biden can get through his polling malaise. With this one out of the way it's feeling like the bext big opportunity to turn the tides will be the convention.

Isn’t your point that the movement towards Biden will take some time and won’t be some massive overnight shift?

G Elliott touched on this today

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1767941669616246925

[dspNY]

Fox has a slight R house bias (a point or two) so these numbers aren't the worst thing in the world...not yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.

The problem with these partisan polls we haven't voted yet, we know Biden is gonna win

These don't measure up to Rassy +9 and he said Trump was up 7 in AZ

[Lief 🗽]

A -3 and -4 swing compared to 2024 suggests Biden +0/1 nationally, whereas Fox’s last national poll was Trump +2, thus proving that the SOTU bump is real.

I also find it very interesting that Biden is running ahead of the generic ballot in both these states. Maybe he is not the problem here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Really? With the way Biden’s been running his campaign and the primary results I’m actually more confident in his chances than I was a month ago, and their does seem to be slight movement towards Biden but it’s gonna be gradual.

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.

I just feel like a relatively big event like the speech which gives way to lasting headlines (positive ones at that) are the only way Biden can get through his polling malaise. With this one out of the way it's feeling like the bext big opportunity to turn the tides will be the convention.

Isn’t your point that the movement towards Biden will take some time and won’t be some massive overnight shift?

I think I'm just being impatient.

[2016]

Biden won't win any of the Sunbelt States. The Blue Wall of MN, WI, MI and PA will save Biden.
270-268 Biden. Maybe Joe also keeps Nevada and it's 276-262. That's where this is headed folks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden won't win any of the Sunbelt States. The Blue Wall of MN, WI, MI and PA will save Biden.
270-268 Biden. Maybe Joe also keeps Nevada and it's 276-262. That's where this is headed folks.

Yeah sure Fox had Lake ahead last time lol just be patient it's only 6 months til we vote

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Looks accurate.

It's a mirror image of 2022 pollings, when Trump-candidates were ahead by 1-5 in both states, then Hobs and Fetterman won relatively easily.

Maybe it's not the same with Biden vs. Trump, but it's a scenario.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looks accurate.

It's a mirror image of 2022 pollings, when Trump-candidates were ahead by 1-5 in both states, then Hobs and Fetterman won relatively easily.

Maybe it's not the same with Biden vs. Trump, but it's a scenario.

That's been a thought of mine, and definitely what I'm hoping for.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's only March users need to chill out

[Brittain33]

Looks accurate.

It's a mirror image of 2022 pollings, when Trump-candidates were ahead by 1-5 in both states, then Hobs and Fetterman won relatively easily.

Maybe it's not the same with Biden vs. Trump, but it's a scenario.

That's been a thought of mine, and definitely what I'm hoping for.

Same.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks accurate.

It's a mirror image of 2022 pollings, when Trump-candidates were ahead by 1-5 in both states, then Hobs and Fetterman won relatively easily.

Maybe it's not the same with Biden vs. Trump, but it's a scenario.

That's been a thought of mine, and definitely what I'm hoping for.

Same.

We haven't voted yet and many of the polls keep showing a Trump bias

[wbrocks67]

It's funny to look back at Fox's late 2022 polls in PA and AZ, they showed similar issues to what we're looking at now. Fox's last PA poll had Fetterman only winning nonwhites 49-31, even worse than Biden here, and we know that's not the case.

The biggest thing for me is the party ID; Fox's last AZ poll had Kelly up 2 overall, winning Indies by 18.

Biden wins indies here by 14, so rather close. And they both got similar partisan support (Kelly a tiny bit more Rs but negligible), but b/c party ID so different, Kelly was up 2 overall, but Biden is down 4. That stuff does make a difference!

Also no wonder the 2020 polls were off so bad, the party IDs in the 2020 Fox polls for example by comparison were crazy. PA was like D+8, AZ was like D+3. No wonder they had Biden up a ton.

[Sir Mohamed]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Really? With the way Biden’s been running his campaign and the primary results I’m actually more confident in his chances than I was a month ago, and their does seem to be slight movement towards Biden but it’s gonna be gradual.

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.

I just feel like a relatively big event like the speech which gives way to lasting headlines (positive ones at that) are the only way Biden can get through his polling malaise. With this one out of the way it's feeling like the bext big opportunity to turn the tides will be the convention.

Isn’t your point that the movement towards Biden will take some time and won’t be some massive overnight shift?

I think I'm just being impatient.

Yup, same here. It's still just March, though we've been saying this for many months now. If the polling picture hasn't changed by summer or into September, I'd be worried.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Really? With the way Biden’s been running his campaign and the primary results I’m actually more confident in his chances than I was a month ago, and their does seem to be slight movement towards Biden but it’s gonna be gradual.

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.

I just feel like a relatively big event like the speech which gives way to lasting headlines (positive ones at that) are the only way Biden can get through his polling malaise. With this one out of the way it's feeling like the bext big opportunity to turn the tides will be the convention.

Isn’t your point that the movement towards Biden will take some time and won’t be some massive overnight shift?

I think I'm just being impatient.

Yup, same here. It's still just March, though we've been saying this for many months now. If the polling picture hasn't changed by summer or into September, I'd be worried.

I think y’all expected too much from the SOTU, for me I’m just happy Biden is starting to show a lead in more national polls and is hitting all the points he should in the campaign. I expected a slight bump (which has shown somewhat) but I did not expect him to magically start leading by 10 after the speech.

[MillennialModerate]

Considering Biden led by so much in 2020 and it was that close - the fact Trump is leading is making me feel like this is over before it begins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Considering Biden led by so much in 2020 and it was that close - the fact Trump is leading is making me feel like this is over before it begins

It's not over no one agrees with you anymore

[Tekken_Guy]

Considering Biden led by so much in 2020 and it was that close - the fact Trump is leading is making me feel like this is over before it begins

How would you rate Biden’s chances at the moment?

[Eraserhead]

Post-SOTU speech

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

The hubris/overconfidence is what’s getting me. Trump is probably a narrow favorite right now, but people are clearly measuring the drapes in the White House right now prematurely.

Yep, close race (between two candidates a majority of the country doesn't like) is... close. News at 11.

[Eraserhead]

One thing I'll say is that the more people learn about the current incarnation of RFK Jr., the more he's going to hurt Trump not Biden (if anything). It's going to be hilarious if and when Trump finally loses it over him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering Biden led by so much in 2020 and it was that close - the fact Trump is leading is making me feel like this is over before it begins

I get that logic, but at the same time, Trump is so polarizing that he isn't capable of these potential landslides polls suggest. A lot went his way in 2016 and he only barely won there. It will be the same case in 2024 if he wins again, it'll be more because his opposition was divided.