Fox: PA Trump +2 AZ Trump +4

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1768037824211616011

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's MOE, it surely doesn't stack up with Rassy +9, Rassy had Trump +7 in AZ wrong

[Woody]

Post-SOTU speech

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Post-SOTU speech

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

It doesn't line up with Trump +9 in Rassy and we haven't voted yet the 3o3 map is in play, it's March 2024 not Nov 24

[Spectator]

Post-SOTU speech

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

The hubris/overconfidence is what’s getting me. Trump is probably a narrow favorite right now, but people are clearly measuring the drapes in the White House right now prematurely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol we already know polls are gonna show like DS said an R pickup of Prez of 3 but we have to vote and we know it's a blue wall not red wall that has to be won by either Trump or Biden

But, Rassy +9 was obnoxious

[Cyrusman]

Post-SOTU speech

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

The hubris/overconfidence is what’s getting me. Trump is probably a narrow favorite right now, but people are clearly measuring the drapes in the White House right now prematurely.

Anyone measuring the drapes in the white house now is a fool as thing is a long race. Just annoying how any poll showing Biden leading gets a ton of replies and is taken as movement, but ones showing trump ahead get dismissed for a variety of reasons.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's called voting

[Spectator]

Post-SOTU speech

BOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

The hubris/overconfidence is what’s getting me. Trump is probably a narrow favorite right now, but people are clearly measuring the drapes in the White House right now prematurely.

Anyone measuring the drapes in the white house now is a fool as thing is a long race. Just annoying how any poll showing Biden leading gets a ton of replies and is taken as movement, but ones showing trump ahead get dismissed for a variety of reasons.

Are we reading the same things? The two links with the most replies on this polling page are the ones with huge Trump leads. As for the poll unskewers , I think everyone knows who that is.

[Minnesota Mike]

Just to be thorough here are the 3 way results. Personally I find H2H more informative but in this case there is little difference.



https://twitter.com/james_levinson/status/1768038716138778900

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden needs to defend PA with his life, if Trump manages to win it that's the ball game.

[Devils30]

If Biden wins I can see MI PA GA being what saves him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden wins I can see MI PA GA being what saves him.

We know the blue wall is

[Minnesota Mike]

If Biden wins I can see MI PA GA being what saves him.

Swap WI for GA and IMO that is Bidens best path.

[Devils30]

If Biden wins I can see MI PA GA being what saves him.

Swap WI for GA and IMO that is Bidens best path.

Not if the GOP gains with black voters are an illusion and trends continue.

[Matty]

Interestingly enough, Biden approval isn’t terrible in PA (-9), yet still losing

[Comrade Funk]

Every Democrat in congress should be shamed for allowing this charade to commence

[Progressive Pessimist]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Lol we haven't voted yet relax these are polls that Pred a Red wave

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden wins I can see MI PA GA being what saves him.

Swap WI for GA and IMO that is Bidens best path.

Biden will win 290 and GA isn't make or Break

[Tekken_Guy]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

[Tekken_Guy]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

That’s the point. The trend is encouraging for Biden and it show Trump largely hit a high water mark these past few months.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Really? With the way Biden’s been running his campaign and the primary results I’m actually more confident in his chances than I was a month ago, and their does seem to be slight movement towards Biden but it’s gonna be gradual.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No State of the Union bump, evidently.

I must admit, I'm finally getting discouraged.

Still, there is a lot of time to go and I'm not entirely certain that polls are accurately reflecting how unpopular Trump really is.

Actually there does seem to be a SOTU bump. Trump had pretty consistent leads in polls for the past few months and the leads he has now tend to be more marginal.

It's a pretty weak bump if so, and almost barely moces the needle at all. He'll need to significantly build upon it.

I was never expecting a SOTU bump directly as only about 10% of people watched the SOTU (hell even I haven't yet) and I bet most of those are locked-in partisans. The benefit from it is that it apparently (again I haven't watched it yet) showed that Biden did not come across as some senile old man and has the strength for a campaign. The campaign is just gearing up now.