Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Time for Haley to drop out


None of these candidates
26,038    +60.4%60.4%    
Nikki Haley
14,328    +33.2%33.2
Mike Pence
1,793    +4.2%4.2
Tim Scott
543    +1.3%1.3

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Service post:

Dean Phillips is not on the NV ballot, because the filing deadline was Oct. 15 already and he launched his campaign in late October.

[Ferguson97]

That's basically the whole early/mail-return vote.

Doesn't that make it worse? I'd figure that the early/mail-in Republican primary voters are more likely to be Haley-friendly. Trump supporters are E-Day only voters.

[NOVA Green]

Clark County--- DEM 2020--- 70.4k TVs (Biden 20.1%)

Clark County--- DEM 2024--- 63.8k TVs (Biden 90.7%)   *** Quite possible DEM TV PRES voters in '24 exceed those of '20, despite this being a non-competitive DEM PRIM.

[Malarkey Decider]

That's basically the whole early/mail-return vote.

Doesn't that make it worse? I'd figure that the early/mail-in Republican primary voters are more likely to be Haley-friendly. Trump supporters are E-Day only voters.

I actually think the opposite is likely true.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Noneofthese Candidates could be the Republicans' most certain to win candidate should they get nominated. Terrible news for Biden.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Carson City and Mineral are reporting now.

CC Dem: ~2,700 votes
Biden: 88.0
None: 7.2
Williamson: 2.2

CC GOP: ~2,300 votes
None: 58.0
Haley 35.4
Pence 4.3
Scott 1.5

Mineral Dem: ~177 votes
Biden: 74.0
None: 20.9
Williamson: 0.0

Mineral GOP: ~265 votes
None: 77.4
Haley: 17.0
Pence: 3.4
Scott 1.5

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly surprised "None of these Candidates" is getting only 6% in the Dem primary. If there was ever an opportunity to cast a harmless protest vote over Biden running again this was it and Dem voters overwhelmingly said the were good with Joe.

[Joe Republic]

*** Quite possible DEM TV PRES voters in '24 exceed those of '20, despite this being a non-competitive DEM PRIM.

Herein lies the difference between mailing everybody a ballot and having them mail it back in, versus requiring them to take a few hours of their day to go sit around in a high school gym and watch some convoluted procedural nonsense before finally casting their vote.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Clark County--- DEM 2020--- 70.4k TVs (Biden 20.1%)

Clark County--- DEM 2024--- 63.8k TVs (Biden 90.7%)   *** Quite possible DEM TV PRES voters in '24 exceed those of '20, despite this being a non-competitive DEM PRIM.

The fact that every registered D received a mail ballot was helping turnout, even if it was not competitive this year.

Still, only every 6th registered D bothered to vote ... 100k out of 600k.

[Compuzled_One]

I do wonder, might Haley's supporters vote for Binkley as revenge for this, and to take down Trump?

It'd be a lot less effective, but it'd be great watching Binkley pick up a solid 10 delegates or so.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like for Clark County these are all VbM and EVs and no ED votes fwiw...

[gf20202]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Feeling good about my guess! 90% with 64% in.

For everybody saying how bad this is for Nikki, she literally didn't put any resources into the state and it's a low turnout non-binding primary in a state that Trump has super wired. She's goling to get demolished by Trump the rest of the way, but this has nothing to do with the narrative.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Surprisingly high Mike Pence vote.

Possible location for anti-Trump and Anti Haley voters?

[YE]

Biden underperforming throughout Rural NV, particularly in Eureka County where he is only up 61%-36%.

Underperforming? Biden didn't even win any counties in the Nevada caucus in 2020.

Also, those counties are sparsely populated and very rural.

They’re just DINO protest votes. They aren’t any meaningful D voting blocs in these counties.

[Pericles]

I guess voters are smart enough to not need actual names on the ballot to vote for their preferences. A really bad result for Haley, but it's also a meaningless contest.

[DrScholl]

Biden is only getting 60% in Eureka County. This is a disaster!

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Elko County came in:

Dem: ~800 votes
Biden: 74.2
None 18.5
Williamson: 4.1

GOP: ~2,745 votes
None: 76.1
Haley: 17.5
Pence: 4.3
Scott: 1.6

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

They’re just DINO protest votes. They aren’t any meaningful D voting blocs in these counties.

Yeah, I know. Tell that to Dwarven Dragon; he's the one talking about Biden "underperforming" in those counties lol.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1755094906140500366

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Storey County is also reporting:

Dem: ~239 votes
Biden: 87.0
None: 7.5
Williamson: 3.4

GOP: ~299 votes
None: 69.9
Haley: 25.4
Scott: 2.7
Pence: 1.7

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1755099252874006648

[NOVA Green]

Esmeralda County was Trump's best in the '16 NV PUB contest with 62.2% of the vote.

Any bets if this tiny county retains that in the '24 PUB PRIM (If we use None of these candidates as a proxy since the Dumpster is not officially on the ballot)?

Nye County was 2nd best and Mineral 3rd best.

Still Clark County PUBs were the ones which really gave him a good life in '16 with almost 50% of the vote, and although the old man still got a decent bag of goodies from Washoe only placed 44% there.

Looks like Haley wasn't able to get enough of the "Country Club" Rubio type voters from '16, and a lot of the Cruz "Evangelical Christian" style voters once again have folded to Trump as well.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/What46HasDone/status/1755101180965888452

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Haley is the only major Republican candidate on the ballot here left in the race.

She is closer to third than to first.

61.2-34.4= 28.8

34.4-4.2= 28.2