Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total nonfactor)

I bet Esmeralda County will do something stupid. Maybe None will win. Idk.

[oldtimer]

Looks like the Nevada D. primary will have a higher raw vote number than S.Carolina's.

[Minnesota Mike]

Looks like the Nevada D. primary will have a higher raw vote number than S.Carolina's.

That's what happens when you mail every registered voter a ballot. I would also bet more Republicans vote in the meaningless primary than in the caucus.

[wbrocks67]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total nonfactor)

Yeah something close to this sounds about right.

[Compuzled_One]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total non-factor)

Interesting about none of these candidates factor. I forgot Nikki has a shot at being embarrassed.

Thought Trump was alone on the caucus ballot, but I guess Ryan Binkley is on it? Wonder if he draws any kind of even marginal protest vote away from Trump.

Imo Binkley gets like 8-12%% just as a protest vote against Trump.

My man'll get delegates! Hell yeah!

[wbrocks67]

Looks likely that Dems will ultimately beat the 147K that they got for the 2022 Senate Dem primary.

Cortez Masto got 90.8% of the vote in that one

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total non-factor)

Interesting about none of these candidates factor. I forgot Nikki has a shot at being embarrassed.

The Republican Primary is actually what I’ll be most interested in. Some of the eastern counties (Elko and especially Lincoln) could provide a preview of what the Utah Primary could look like come Super Tuesday.

I’m also interested to see how many counties Haley can actually win and whether the zombie candidates Tim Scott and Mike Pence will get any support.

None of the Above could get significant numbers in both primaries. Wouldn’t be shocked if it wins a county on the Dem side too.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total non-factor)

Interesting about none of these candidates factor. I forgot Nikki has a shot at being embarrassed.

Thought Trump was alone on the caucus ballot, but I guess Ryan Binkley is on it? Wonder if he draws any kind of even marginal protest vote away from Trump.

Imo Binkley gets like 8-12%% just as a protest vote against Trump.

My man'll get delegates! Hell yeah!

Dinkmentum!

[Eraserhead]

New high for Williamson incoming? She has to beat 4%. 

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My predictions:

Democrats

84% Biden
  4% Williamson
  4% Others
  8% NOTA

Republicans

54% NOTA
40% Haley
  6% Others

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

There are 600.000 registered Democratic voters in NV, all of which were sent a mail ballot.

There are 550.000 Republicans, all were sent a mail ballot too.

Non-affiliated and independents/other party were not sent a ballot:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/12952/638427228478800000

94k Ds returned their ballot, were accepted for counting or voted early.
58k Rs did so.

(Actually, a lot more were returned, but not accepted for counting, for various reasons.)

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/12958/638427229642430000

Based on these numbers, Democratic turnout could reach 20-25%.

Republican turnout 15%.

Election-day voting today will be relatively weak and won't add much to the early vote.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Does anyone know if registered voters, who are Independents/other party, can vote in-person today?

These 800.000 registered voters were not sent a mail ballot, unlike registered Ds and Rs ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

4.000+ mail ballots returned in both primaries have been either rejected (1.500+) or flagged for signature cures (2.500+), which means a part of the latter could still end up in the vote count.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

2% of mail ballots that were sent to the 600k registered Ds and 550k registered Rs came back as "undeliverable".

More Republican addresses were undeliverable than Democratic ones ...

[gf20202]

Anybody got the NYT results links for R and D through a gift link?

[Minnesota Mike]

AP Link

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-nevada-election-2024-results

[wbrocks67]

Anybody got the NYT results links for R and D through a gift link?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/06/us/elections/results-nevada-democratic-primary.html?unlocked_article_code=1.TU0.QwjS.33yopwsJ9__P&bgrp=a&smid=url-share

[Ferguson97]

Prediction:

Democrats
Biden - 89%
Others - 6%
Williamson - 5%

Republicans
NOTA - 55%
Haley - 45%

[Compuzled_One]

When do polls close? I assume at about 7 PM in Nevada?

[bilaps]

When do polls close? I assume at about 7 PM in Nevada?

Yes. 10pm Eastern time.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

When do polls close? I assume at about 7 PM in Nevada?

Yeah, 7 PM PST, 10 PM EST

[Compuzled_One]

Thank you to you two.

[NOVA Green]

So ( more minutes to go.

Perhaps (25 Minutes until we get the first VBM results).

Here's the man in black himself singing the song live from Folsom...

[NOVA Green]

Gonna grab a cig, with various webpages open and suspecting got (10) more minutes at min before we even start to see results from Cow Counties in NV...

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1755065556326051979