Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

[Pres Mike]

A spokesperson for Haley, Olivia Perez-Cubas, downplayed Haley's Nevada loss, arguing that the process favored Trump.

"Even Donald Trump knows that when you play penny slots, the house wins. We didn't bother to play a game rigged for Trump," Perez-Cubas said. "We're full steam ahead in South Carolina and beyond."

"We have not spent a dime nor an ounce of energy on Nevada," Haley's campaign manager, Betsey Ankney, told reporters on Monday.

The gall it takes to claim that the process is rigged against you when you are the only candidate on the ballot and still lose lmao

The gall to assume you automatically becomes the nominee if Trump is arrested, when 2/3 of the party very clearly do not want you

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Now, the question for the caucus is whether Trump can outrun NOTA. For all the talk of Haley getting embarrassed, Trump has yet to reach 63% in a primary or caucus thus far.

Haley will be in the race until the SC rules on whether Trump is ineligible to run for office. Her donors will likely continue to fund her campaign until then.

Agreed. The Appeals Court ruling from yesterday probably gave her some more justification, even if she similarly embarrasses herself in her home state.

He’ll beat the percentage, but idk about raw votes. It would be funny if Haley still got more raw votes (apples and oranges of course).

[Lief 🗽]

Nevada looks to actually be Lean R at this point, like the polls are saying. Biden underperformed a bit here, now that we have most of the votes counted.

[Birdish]

Nevada looks to actually be Lean R at this point, like the polls are saying. Biden underperformed a bit here, now that we have most of the votes counted.

Underperformed compared to what? The 2022 primary? Because we don't really have any recent data on incumbent presidents running in primaries.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Drawing general election conclusions based on noncompetitive primaries is so bad I don't even know how to describe it adequately.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

No big changes since I checked yesterday ... only Haley declined a bit.

I don't see a path for her going forward.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Don't forget that today is not just the important NV R-caucus (with Ryan Blinkey!), but also the very important Virginia Islands caucuses where hundreds of votes will be cast ... lol.

[DrScholl]

If there is anything to be gleaned from the Democratic primary is that no real protest vote materialized and this was a perfect place for it to occur with the "None Of These Candidates" option. Despite the narrative being set there doesn't seem to be enough discontent with Biden for disaffected voters to actually show up to send a message. In short the "Anybody But Biden" narrative that has been pushed just is not showing up.

[wbrocks67]

Nevada looks to actually be Lean R at this point, like the polls are saying. Biden underperformed a bit here, now that we have most of the votes counted.

I mean, we've only gotten 4 recent polls in like the last 4-5 months: NYT/Siena and Morning Consult that show huge shifts from 2020, and CNN (Biden +1) and NRSC (tied), so I wouldn't call it Lean R at all this point.

Also, how did he underperform? He did 1% worse than Masto, who is a NV state-specific incumbent.

[wbrocks67]

15K more votes counted in Dem primary, 5K more in the GOP primary

DEM: 125,728 (89% in)
Biden: 112,414 (89.4%)
None of these: 7,017 (5.6%)
Williamson: 3,714 (3.0%)

GOP: 74,292 (86% in)
None of these: 47,077 (63.4%)
Haley: 22,611 (30.4%)
Pence: 2,895 (3.9%)

Looks like Nevada may actually top SC as highest turnout so far for Dems by the end

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

[Minnesota Mike]

15K more votes counted in Dem primary, 5K more in the GOP primary

DEM: 125,728 (89% in)
Biden: 112,414 (89.4%)
None of these: 7,017 (5.6%)
Williamson: 3,714 (3.0%)

GOP: 74,292 (86% in)
None of these: 47,077 (63.4%)
Haley: 22,611 (30.4%)
Pence: 2,895 (3.9%)

Looks like Nevada may actually top SC as highest turnout so far for Dems by the end

The Dem caucus turnout record was 118K in 2008. It shows how much better primaries are for turnout when the Biden/Williamson contest had more participation than Obama/Clinton.

Any guesses on Rep caucus turnout tonight? I say under 40K.

[Minnesota Mike]

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

I think the VI caucuses may have some zombie candidates. The usual suspects are listed as candidates by the Green Papers and I'm not sure if they can remove their names or not.

[Landslide Lyndon]

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

I think the VI caucuses may have some zombie candidates. The usual suspects are listed as candidates by the Green Papers and I'm not sure if they can remove their names or not.

Normally caucuses don't have ballots, so there is nothing to remove their names from.
I guess if someone is hell-bent on voting Pence or Burgum nothing can stop them. 

[Minnesota Mike]

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

I think the VI caucuses may have some zombie candidates. The usual suspects are listed as candidates by the Green Papers and I'm not sure if they can remove their names or not.

Normally caucuses don't have ballots, so there is nothing to remove their names from.
I guess if someone is hell-bent on voting Pence or Burgum nothing can stop them. 

It's not really a traditional caucus though, more of a firehouse primary. Both Nevada and the VI charged a fee to get on the ballot. Nevada removed the names of those who dropped out (anything to help Trump) but I'm not sure what the VI are going to do. Also the VI are using ranked choice voting so that would suggest more than 2 candidates.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://stcroixsource.com/2024/02/06/early-v-i-republican-caucus-gets-national-attention-but-infighting-continues/

Virgin Islands.

Though all but two have since dropped out of the race, the candidates for the U.S. presidential nomination on the local GOP ballot are Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Perry Johnson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Donald Trump because each paid the party $20,000 to qualify.

The voting locations for Thursday’s caucus are:

St. Croix – 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. at La Reine Chicken Shack, Christiansted.

St. John – 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Lovango Rum Bar, Cruz Bay.

St. Thomas – 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. at Bluebeard’s Castle, Estate Taarneberg, Charlotte Amalie.

Official results will be released during the Republican Party in the Virgin Islands election night party at the Morningstar Buoy House Beach Resort at Frenchman’s Reef on St. Thomas. Doors will open at 6:30 p.m. Results are expected by 8 p.m.

[wbrocks67]

I'm starting to lose faith that NV will count in time this year. We're now two days out from the election and we're still only at 89% in on the Dem side. Washoe is at 72%. There's no reason these few ballots should not be counted by now.

[RI]

Virgin Islands result:

Trump 73.98% (182)
Haley 26.02% (64)

[wbrocks67]

Virgin Islands result:

Trump 73.98% (182)
Haley 26.02% (64)

Only 250 people voted? Jesus

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/maiamindel/status/1755571052199960711

[NOVA Green]

Anecdotal random reports on Twitter claiming turnout is high for the PUB Caucuses...

A somewhat cool 46 Degrees Fahrenheit...

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A big win for TRUMP!

Donald J. Trump
81   +95.3%95.3%   
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
4   +4.7%4.7   
No delegates—
Total reported
85   

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Virgin Islands result:

Trump 73.98% (182)
Haley 26.02% (64)

Awesome!

😁

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

A big win for TRUMP!

Donald J. Trump
81 +95.3%95.3%
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
4 +4.7%4.7
No delegates—
Total reported
85

Amazing!

😺

My predictions:

NV-Caucus

93% Trump
  7% Blinkley

VI-Caucus

71% Trump
29% Haley

I think there are no other options to vote for?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'm starting to lose faith that NV will count in time this year. We're now two days out from the election and we're still only at 89% in on the Dem side. Washoe is at 72%. There's no reason these few ballots should not be counted by now.

NV is typically a slow state, even in general elections.

They count most of the votes on election day, but take 1-2 weeks to finish counting the remaining votes.

Other states are much worse, such as CA and NY or AZ, who take 6-8 weeks after election day to produce a final result ...