Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1752028957355237732
Nevada Dems primary turnout:

2024: ?
2022 125,000
2020 105,000
2018 144,000

[PeteB]

Considering that the Republican primary is unsanctioned, that Trump is not on the ballot and that the contest yields no delegates, who are the 38K who have already voted?

[oldtimer]

Considering that the Republican primary is unsanctioned, that Trump is not on the ballot and that the contest yields no delegates, who are the 38K who have already voted?

They might be confused.

Thought I guess they can vote in the primary and participate in the caucus, so why not both ?

[wbrocks67]

Considering that the Republican primary is unsanctioned, that Trump is not on the ballot and that the contest yields no delegates, who are the 38K who have already voted?

They might be confused.

Thought I guess they can vote in the primary and participate in the caucus, so why not both ?

Yeah, I imagine a majority of voters don't even realize that Trump is not on one of the ballots.

[bilaps]

I suppose there's gonna be solid share of people voting for Haley on primary ballot and then caucus for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I suppose there's gonna be solid share of people voting for Haley on primary ballot and then caucus for Trump.

What would be their motivation for that?

[bilaps]

I suppose there's gonna be solid share of people voting for Haley on primary ballot and then caucus for Trump.

What would be their motivation for that?

There are only 2 candidates left. Every voter receives mail primary ballot so it's easy for them to return them.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1752396258034287102

[Sorenroy]

https://nevadagop.org/2024-presidential-caucus/

Just to make it clear, this is a true caucus, not a firehouse primary run by the state party. Voters can show up, cast a ballot, and leave, but it must take place during the two and a half hour period next Thursday from 5:00-7:30.

Withdrawn candidates have also been removed from the caucus ballot, meaning that protest votes against Donald Trump must be made for Ryan Binkley. Even if a someone makes the effort to show up and oppose Trump, the other candidates who filed for the caucus (Christie, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy) will not be options.

In 2020, the Nevada Republican Party voted to cancel that year's caucus process, so it's hard to get a data-based handle on if there is a core of anti-Trump opposition in the state. Emmerson conducted two polls of the hypothetical race in 2019 and both found Trump receiving 92% of the vote both times against Walsh, Weld, and Sanford.

The two hypothetical polls conducted over the past three months including Haley put Trump in the mid 60s. Listing only the candidates who would appear on the ballot, Trump's numbers went up to the mid 70s. There has been no polling since before the Iowa Caucus, so all the polling we have includes the three withdrawn candidates. Binkley was included in two of those polls, receiving 0% in one and 1% in the other.

My guess, based on the tiny amount of information we have, would be that Trump gets in the low to mid 90s with Binkley's numbers being inflated by would-be Haley voters and other anti-Trump opposition. I'll throw out a guess and say Trump wins 94-6.

[Ferguson97]

I suppose there's gonna be solid share of people voting for Haley on primary ballot and then caucus for Trump.

Can they do that?

[bilaps]

I suppose there's gonna be solid share of people voting for Haley on primary ballot and then caucus for Trump.

Can they do that?

yes.

[emailking]

Couldn't there be real elections on the ballot? Like for local or other state races? That could be a reason to return a ballot even if there's a caucus.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Couldn't there be real elections on the ballot? Like for local or other state races? That could be a reason to return a ballot even if there's a caucus.

No, the NV state/local primaries are held later in May or something.

These primaries are only for President.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1752755146487169148?s=20

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Not sure if I will even follow this farce.

Turnout is low and the only question remaining is, will Haley be beaten by "none of the above"?

[RI]

Not sure if I will even follow this farce.

Turnout is low and the only question remaining is, will Haley be beaten by "none of the above"?

Of course she will.

[wbrocks67]

I'd say this is pretty good turnout all things considered for Dems given that its an incumbent with little opposition. 2022 senate primary had 146K dem votes, interested to see if it will top that by the end.

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1753124506368172379

[Minnesota Mike]

If Nevada Republicans had just gone along with the primary Trump beats Haley by 40 Tuesday and Haley drops out by Wednesday.  Instead the "race" will continue until South Carolina.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jess_hillyeah/status/1753488057494639094

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1753858909356380656?s=20

[Ferguson97]

Ma'am it's February

https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1753140193148760448

[gf20202]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

[The Mikado]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total nonfactor)

[gf20202]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total non-factor)

Interesting about none of these candidates factor. I forgot Nikki has a shot at being embarrassed.

Thought Trump was alone on the caucus ballot, but I guess Ryan Binkley is on it? Wonder if he draws any kind of even marginal protest vote away from Trump.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total non-factor)

Interesting about none of these candidates factor. I forgot Nikki has a shot at being embarrassed.

Thought Trump was alone on the caucus ballot, but I guess Ryan Binkley is on it? Wonder if he draws any kind of even marginal protest vote away from Trump.

Imo Binkley gets like 8-12%% just as a protest vote against Trump.