Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[Devils30]

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-joe-biden-thinks-he-can-flip-north-carolina-blue-in-2024

“ It’s growth in those areas – along with what will be a highly competitive governor’s race – that had led some top national and state-based Democrats to be even more bullish about winning North Carolina in 2024 than they are about carrying Georgia for a second campaign in a row.”

The truth of the matter is, one of the reasons they are in North Carolina is they don't have a choice,” said a top Democratic operative in the state. “North Carolina is the only state where you can add votes from 2020 and I think there is no chance in the world they can win Georgia.” The reason, the operative said, is Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, a talented campaigner who spurred people to vote, was on the ballot with Biden in 2020”.

Tell me exactly how Biden will win NC with a greater vote from college graduates but not improve in the Atlanta suburbs with a ton of these voters. And if the black belt costs Biden Georgia, it will certainly sink him in northeast NC and southeast NC to a point where he easily loses the state. My point is the only thing that has Biden in big trouble in Georgia is the weird polling with Trump leading among 18-44 year olds.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this whole idea among "Dem strategists" that GA is not in play is really weird to me. GA is only trending even more left (even if slowly), especially given the 2022 results.

[Eraserhead]

The likelihood of him winning either is not good.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Unlikely, but it can’t be ruled out. Ted Budd literally performed worse than every single statewide republican winner in Georgia. But at the point that’s happening, it’s likely he’s lost both

[GAinDC]

I'll put my money on the state where Republicans haven't won a statewide federal race since 2016.

This is also revisionist history:

“North Carolina is the only state where you can add votes from 2020 and I think there is no chance in the world they can win Georgia.” The reason, the operative said, is Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, a talented campaigner who spurred people to vote, was on the ballot with Biden in 2020”

Warnock was in the jungle primary ahead of the general, and the real race at that time was between Loeffler and Doug Collins to advance. Warnock's campaign really didn't heat up until the double barrel runoffs.

[Pericles]

Stupid to be writing off Georgia and it completely misunderstands the state. However, the NC and GA margins weren't that far apart in 2020, so writing off NC while treating GA as a prime swing state is also dumb.

[Redban]

ITT - Biden stooges pretend a 6-7% polling error in GA is happening

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/georgia/trump-vs-biden

[GAinDC]

ITT - Biden stooges pretend a 6-7% polling error in GA is happening

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/georgia/trump-vs-biden

It's still early

[GAinDC]

Stupid to be writing off Georgia and it completely misunderstands the state. However, the NC and GA margins weren't that far apart in 2020, so writing off NC while treating GA as a prime swing state is also dumb.

Agreed, but how do you think they misunderstand the state?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is vulnerable too because we just won a H Riverwalk isn't wrong Powell is likely to win now and ALLRED is 2 pts behind Cruz the 2016 pollster said TX S was over no it wasn't


FL, OH, NC, GA, TX have 15  blk and 26 Arab and Latino and white females vote 55)45 D so there you have, Ds are put down here to help poverty not control deficits caused by military spending and tax cuts. Rs blame Entitlements but military is 1/3 rd of budget

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Possible if Trump's gains are mostly from gains among blacks (both lower turnout and better margins) and he makes more gains in urban areas than rural areas (which is also reflected in polling).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Possible if Trump's gains are mostly from gains among blacks (both lower turnout and better margins) and he makes more gains in urban areas than rural areas (which is also reflected in polling).

He's not making gains with blks did you hear we won a red state district in FL that's losing blk support and Cruz is only up two what has Trump done for blks like me Homelessness doubled from 5/10 percent ent during Trump time in office majority of homeless are blk men

There is like 15 per ent in TX in Austin mainly and Dallas that have Blks thats cutting into Cruz support, my cuz live in TX and since their Cowboys lost they are voting ALLRED blk cuz not white cuz that's losing blk support

[Tekken_Guy]

If Trump is overperforming with black voters than GA to the right of NC is very much possible but he’s easily winning both states at that point.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC seems to be less elastic than Georgia. It seems like most statewide races in NC come down to the wire with the GOP slightly favored. Georgia voted for Biden/Warnock then turned around and re-elected Kemp by an 8 point margin or something like that.

That said, I am not confident Biden wins either state. GA seems to have forgotten that Trump tried to overturn their election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have to wait for the wave the polls aren't correspondence to votes we just won a red district in FL and Rs said Powell and ALLRED were DoA no they aren't Cruz is only up 2

The reason why Trump is so weak in GE compared to primary Rs think Trump is exhonerated and he is only out on bond Ds know better and Trump is still a criminal , he is only out on bond and even if he is elected Prez he can be tried in 28 he can't run again as Prez

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually there is a really solid argument Dems should invest more in NC than GA for 2024.

NC just has more important things at stake; the Governorship, a State Supreme Court Race, A competitive US House race, and the State legislative Supermajority.

In GA on the other hand, Dems might have a small chance of flipping the State House and that's it. Also a ton of Dems gains in GA have been caused by growth and local campaigning/investments, so even if Biden didn't invest much in the state, he could still win it.

I think some people are overestimating the partisan delta between NC and GA - they voted less than 2 points apart in 2020, but it feels like a much larger divide because their absolute outcomes were different.

With all this being said, I still think GA would be an easier carry for Biden than NC.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those. If he couldn't get a landslide in 2020 when the country was in recession, Trump was more unpopular than ever, and Biden himself had better favorables, he isn't going to get one now.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Actually there is a really solid argument Dems should invest more in NC than GA for 2024.

NC just has more important things at stake; the Governorship, a State Supreme Court Race, A competitive US House race, and the State legislative Supermajority.

In GA on the other hand, Dems might have a small chance of flipping the State House and that's it. Also a ton of Dems gains in GA have been caused by growth and local campaigning/investments, so even if Biden didn't invest much in the state, he could still win it.

I think some people are overestimating the partisan delta between NC and GA - they voted less than 2 points apart in 2020, but it feels like a much larger divide because their absolute outcomes were different.

With all this being said, I still think GA would be an easier carry for Biden than NC.

Does either national-level party really care about state politics at this point? Half-serious question. Obama didn't. Trump didn't. Biden does to a point based on 2022 but they're going to throw everything into national reelection campaign at the expense of a state one.

[2016]

If Biden loses Georgia, he will also lose North Carolina.

[kwabbit]

These Dem operatives come from the Olawakandi School of Senate races creating reverse coattails and impacting the Presidential.

[wnwnwn]

Aren't democrats a bit favored to win the governor race there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Aren't democrats a bit favored to win the governor race there?

Yes.

[Devils30]

These Dem operatives come from the Olawakandi School of Senate races creating reverse coattails and impacting the Presidential.

And there’s no world where Texas and Georgia are both an 8 point Trump win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, they're about as deluded as the ones who think Trump (or Biden) won't be nominated.

[Pres Mike]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia