Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[Tekken_Guy]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

I think the the senate losses can be explained by outside factors: catastrophic GOP turnout in North GA in the 2021 runoffs and Walker being a horrific candidate in 2022.

Democrats have won FOUR races in Georgia in the last 2 cycles (6 if you count Warnock’s first place finish in each of his general elections) yet some people still rely on excuses and claim each win was a “fluke.”

A fluke win happens once in a blue moon (Indiana ‘08, Alabama Senate ‘17), not four times in two cycles.

I’m not saying GA is a blue state, but it sure ain’t a a red state anymore.

Republicans won the cumulative PV in the 2020 senate special in round 1, so I don’t count that as a win for Democrats.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

To me, Trump treated GA in 2020 the way Clinton treated MI in 2016. Saw it as a state that was still "safeish" for 1 more cycle at least even though it was trending away from their party. I don't think Trump really even went to GA until the end of the campaign.
Probably why he was the angriest about GA flipping

His campaign saw it as somewhat vulnerable, but they figured that if they lost GA, we would be looking at a Biden landslide with Florida and NC already in the blue column and thus it wasn't a major target in the campaign for them.

[Devils30]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

I think the the senate losses can be explained by outside factors: catastrophic GOP turnout in North GA in the 2021 runoffs and Walker being a horrific candidate in 2022.

Democrats have won FOUR races in Georgia in the last 2 cycles (6 if you count Warnock’s first place finish in each of his general elections) yet some people still rely on excuses and claim each win was a “fluke.”

A fluke win happens once in a blue moon (Indiana ‘08, Alabama Senate ‘17), not four times in two cycles.

I’m not saying GA is a blue state, but it sure ain’t a a red state anymore.

Republicans won the cumulative PV in the 2020 senate special in round 1, so I don’t count that as a win for Democrats.

2020 Rs had a downballot strength with some white suburban college voters that dissipated after Dobbs.