Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[Devils30]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia

There's just no world where Biden is gaining ground in Wake, Mecklenberg and not gaining ground in Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry. And Trump led a lot of early Georgia 2020 polls, this state polling underestimated Biden in a year where national and other state polling overestimated him.

[Pres Mike]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia

There's just no world where Biden is gaining ground in Wake, Mecklenberg and not gaining ground in Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry. And Trump led a lot of early Georgia 2020 polls, this state polling underestimated Biden in a year where national and other state polling overestimated him.

If Biden wins re-election, he is winning Georgia. I sincerly think that.

[Devils30]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia

There's just no world where Biden is gaining ground in Wake, Mecklenberg and not gaining ground in Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry. And Trump led a lot of early Georgia 2020 polls, this state polling underestimated Biden in a year where national and other state polling overestimated him.

If Biden wins re-election, he is winning Georgia. I sincerly think that.

Agree, towns like Sandy Springs, Marietta, Alpharetta are much more similar to the Main Line outside Philly than to the black belt. Any swing in one will likely happen in the other. And the 2022 Senate race shows how Biden could lose ground in the black belt while still gaining statewide. Warnock got very modest leftward swings in the Atlanta burbs and almost won by 100,000 votes despite doing worse than Biden in nearly all of south Georgia outside Macon, Columbus and Savannah. The GOP also seems to be maxing out in rural north Georgia if 2022 is any indication.

Kemp won by over 7 but remember his coalition was centered on repudiating Trump. The biggest Senate to Gov rightward swings were in the rich suburbs. Again, these Kemp-Warnock voters are mostly Biden 2020 voters and are NOT voting for Trump in 2024. Any Trump win probably depends on a larger third party vote among younger non-whites, not winning back former Rs who have defected.

[Ferguson97]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

[EastwoodS]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

why would he focus on a state he lost by 2-3 points if it is almost certain there will not be a national shift to the left from 2020. At this point, I would just play defense cause as of right now, 2020 is his ceiling, no if, ands or buts about it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

why would he focus on a state he lost by 2-3 points if it is almost certain there will not be a national shift to the left from 2020. At this point, I would just play defense cause as of right now, 2020 is his ceiling, no if, ands or buts about it.

There are a couple ifs. Maybe even a but.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls before the runoff Pred Walker was gonna win, so I wouldn't put too much into polls right now, especially with GA but we know Robinson is leading Stein and NC is moving right but Kemp is popular too, we don't need but AZ plus 279 we don't need either GA or NC it's wave insurance

[TDAS04]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those. If he couldn't get a landslide in 2020 when the country was in recession, Trump was more unpopular than ever, and Biden himself had better favorables, he isn't going to get one now.

Biden winning NC is not implausible, and Biden underperforming his 2020 margin nationwide is far from a forgone conclusion. While Biden needs to focus on securing the MI/PA/WI trio + AZ, attempting to flip North Carolina for a more secure finish wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea (even though I still think Georgia's stronger for Biden than North Carolina is).

But aside from that, Democrats would be foolish to waste time and resources in any of the other Trump 2020 states (and Trump isn't winning any state he lost to Biden by over 5% the first time).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those. If he couldn't get a landslide in 2020 when the country was in recession, Trump was more unpopular than ever, and Biden himself had better favorables, he isn't going to get one now.

Biden winning NC is not implausible, and Biden underperforming his 2020 margin nationwide is far from a forgone conclusion. While Biden needs to focus on securing the MI/PA/WI trio + AZ, attempting to flip North Carolina for a more secure finish wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea (even though I still think Georgia's stronger for Biden than North Carolina is).


Robinson is beating Stein look at the ECU poll he is leading by 4, Stein hasn't lead in a single recent NC poll and we don't need GA or NC
But aside from that, Democrats would be foolish to waste time and resources in any of the other Trump 2020 states (and Trump isn't winning any state he lost to Biden by over 5% the first time).

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Biden can win both states, smart money is on Georgia

There's just no world where Biden is gaining ground in Wake, Mecklenberg and not gaining ground in Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry. And Trump led a lot of early Georgia 2020 polls, this state polling underestimated Biden in a year where national and other state polling overestimated him.

If Biden wins re-election, he is winning Georgia. I sincerly think that.

Biden is way more likely to win without Georgia than Trump is, IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users are in denial about gerrymandering in NC, Stein is gonna lose he is down 4 I even have it Lean R, it may bounce back in 26 to D because Jeff Jackson may wind up challenging Tillis since he is almost certainly gonna lose AG race

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

If Stein and Jackson win, Dems hold the SCNC seat, the supermajority is broken, and Don Davis is re-elected, that’s a huge win for the NCDP even if Biden himself falls short.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

Have you seen the ECU poll it was accurate in 2022 when it predicted Beasley to lose by 3 Robinson is ahead by 4

[Schiff for Senate]

North Carolina is not voting to the left of Georgia. That said, it may not vote more than a couple points to the right.

Unlikely, but it can’t be ruled out. Ted Budd literally performed worse than every single statewide republican winner in Georgia. But at the point that’s happening, it’s likely he’s lost both

You're comparing a federal Senate election to state elections. There's a big difference, and it's obviously worth noting that in Georgia's senate race, Democrats won outright by a pretty decent margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC isn't AZ we see TX trending left only because Cruz been in the S too long and it's trending more left than FL the samething in GA compared to NC, GA is still the bellwether not NC. Cooper won because he is the inc but it's a 3 T D inc it's gonna be difficult for Ds not impossible to hold onto to NC

We experienced the same thing in WA but FERGUSON is gonna win OR and WA Gov polls always show an R bias

We are gonna win WA, NH and then VA and have 23 DG in 24 and 24 DG After 25/26 every inc Gov seat is gonna be refilled in 26 too

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

If Stein and Jackson win, Dems hold the SCNC seat, the supermajority is broken, and Don Davis is re-elected, that’s a huge win for the NCDP even if Biden himself falls short.

The thing is Biden and the NCDP are different entities. The truth is the National Dem party and Biden's goal is to win the federal trifecta, the results of a state party are irrelevant to them compared to the federal trifecta. Unless there is a federal senate seat, local races are up to the state party to maneuver.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

If Stein and Jackson win, Dems hold the SCNC seat, the supermajority is broken, and Don Davis is re-elected, that’s a huge win for the NCDP even if Biden himself falls short.

The thing is Biden and the NCDP are different entities. The truth is the National Dem party and Biden's goal is to win the federal trifecta, the results of a state party are irrelevant to them compared to the federal trifecta. Unless there is a federal senate seat, local races are up to the state party to maneuver.

Yeah, I mostly agree.  Like, party building is good and all of us would love that as partisans for our side in any state we need a boost in, but Biden's concern is getting to 270 and getting majorities in Congress.

[Devils30]

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-democrats-georgia-bright-spot-could-be-trouble-in-2024

"The fact that Warnock, senior pastor of the late Dr. Martin Luther King’s one-time church in Atlanta, is not on the ballot is one of the biggest causes for concern among Democrats. The senator and his political operation has proven to be a turnout machine – “a hero on the ballot,” said one Democratic operative who has worked in Georgia – and helped lift all Democrats in 2020."

These concerns are also one reason Democrats close to Biden are more bullish on North Carolina, a state they believe they could need to flip in November if Georgia reverts to the Republican column.

Do any of these idiots realize Warnock's November 2020 was the primary for the GA special, not the actual election? Warnock ran a great runoff campaign but he was NOT the reason Biden was the winner in Georgia. People show up in the largest numbers for the Presidential race! I just wonder about the quality of some people working on campaigns.

[GAinDC]

https://themessenger.com/politics/why-democrats-georgia-bright-spot-could-be-trouble-in-2024

"The fact that Warnock, senior pastor of the late Dr. Martin Luther King’s one-time church in Atlanta, is not on the ballot is one of the biggest causes for concern among Democrats. The senator and his political operation has proven to be a turnout machine – “a hero on the ballot,” said one Democratic operative who has worked in Georgia – and helped lift all Democrats in 2020."

These concerns are also one reason Democrats close to Biden are more bullish on North Carolina, a state they believe they could need to flip in November if Georgia reverts to the Republican column.

Do any of these idiots realize Warnock's November 2020 was the primary for the GA special, not the actual election? Warnock ran a great runoff campaign but he was NOT the reason Biden was the winner in Georgia. People show up in the largest numbers for the Presidential race! I just wonder about the quality of some people working on campaigns.

Yeah, I think that's a lazy excuse! Warnock didn't even get a lot of attention until the runoffs.

There are some valid points in this article but I think it misses the mark.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

[GAinDC]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.

While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.

I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.

2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.

The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.

I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.

And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.

I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.

1.7 million is black in metro atlanta



and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.

And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.



Don't believe me?

Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)

But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.

Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.

And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.

This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).

Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.



here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.



Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.

even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.

[Devils30]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.

While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.

I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.

2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.

The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.

I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.

And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.

I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.

1.7 million is black in metro atlanta



and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.

And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.



Don't believe me?

Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)

But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.

Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.

And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.

This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).

Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.



here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.



Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.

even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.

Except the 2020 trends in GA were backed up by 16 years of major swings toward Dems in the Atlanta metro. Warnock also replicated and expanded on Biden's coalition in the 2022 regular and runoff election. Turnout also dropped from the 2022 general to runoff but Warnock's margin increased.