Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[🥥🌴]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.

While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.

I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.

2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.

The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.

I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.

And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.

I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.

1.7 million is black in metro atlanta



and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.

And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.



Don't believe me?

Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)

But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.

Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.

And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.

This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).

Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.



here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.



Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.

even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.

Except the 2020 trends in GA were backed up by 16 years of major swings toward Dems in the Atlanta metro. Warnock also replicated and expanded on Biden's coalition in the 2022 regular and runoff election. Turnout also dropped from the 2022 general to runoff but Warnock's margin increased.

These are not presidential elections, Trump wasn't on the ballot. That's not the same. Besides turnout for midterms are always lower than presidential years, and it's clear a lot of republicans here stayed home, esp. for the runoff.

Secondly, it's the raw vote margin that matters, not percentage. A percentage swing might increase with lower turnout but the raw vote margin might decrease (though that seems not like what happened in 2022). But it's Trump vs Biden, not Walker vs Warnock.

To give you an example, i'm 99% sure i would vote for Warnock if i lived in Georgia while i'm not that sure about Biden - as an example, and would be more inclined to not vote/write-in someone or something. Every election is unique.

[Devils30]

Well if Biden's opposition to foreign terrorist groups is a deal-breaker to you then you can deal with Donald Trump's second term.

[GAinDC]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.

While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.

I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.

2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.

The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.

I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.

And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.

I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.

1.7 million is black in metro atlanta



and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.

And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.



Don't believe me?

Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)

But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.

Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.

And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.

This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).

Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.



here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.



Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.

even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.

Except the 2020 trends in GA were backed up by 16 years of major swings toward Dems in the Atlanta metro. Warnock also replicated and expanded on Biden's coalition in the 2022 regular and runoff election. Turnout also dropped from the 2022 general to runoff but Warnock's margin increased.

These are not presidential elections, Trump wasn't on the ballot. That's not the same. Besides turnout for midterms are always lower than presidential years, and it's clear a lot of republicans here stayed home, esp. for the runoff.

Secondly, it's the raw vote margin that matters, not percentage. A percentage swing might increase with lower turnout but the raw vote margin might decrease (though that seems not like what happened in 2022). But it's Trump vs Biden, not Walker vs Warnock.

To give you an example, i'm 99% sure i would vote for Warnock if i lived in Georgia while i'm not that sure about Biden - as an example, and would be more inclined to not vote/write-in someone or something. Every election is unique.

I'm just confused by your analysis. Warnock had a turnout drop off in 2022, and he actually did better that Biden. So why couldn't Biden also build on his 2020 performance in GA if runs a good campaign? It's not as if those voters you speak of were all that excited about Biden in 2020 either...

[Devils30]

A lot of liberal bedwetting comes from the idea that non-whites will not vote because they are mad about Gaza (despite most of these protests being whites, Arabs) while white non-college will have even larger turnout than 2020.

I think it is quite possible non-white, non-college turnout falls in 2024, along with a corresponding fall among WWC voters not really as enthusiastic at Trump's third run. This will hurt Dems in urban areas but may also hurt the GOP in rural GA, WI, PA, MI. Biden's path here runs through getting even larger suburban margins and I think a lot of people expecting regression in Gwinnett, Cobb will be quite disappointed. Places like Henry, Fayette based on demographics will almost certainly be bluer in 2024 than 2020 (see 2022 Gov in Henry if you think I'm bs'ing). New 2024 voters who are 18-21 should be good for Dems (even if some vote third party).

GA is a good example of what will win out, polls or trends? If Biden ends up beating his polling, I can see GA being ground zero for this.  

[GAinDC]

A lot of liberal bedwetting comes from the idea that non-whites will not vote because they are mad about Gaza (despite most of these protests being whites, Arabs) while white non-college will have even larger turnout than 2020.

I think it is quite possible non-white, non-college turnout falls in 2024, along with a corresponding fall among WWC voters not really as enthusiastic at Trump's third run. This will hurt Dems in urban areas but may also hurt the GOP in rural GA, WI, PA, MI. Biden's path here runs through getting even larger suburban margins and I think a lot of people expecting regression in Gwinnett, Cobb will be quite disappointed. Places like Henry, Fayette based on demographics will almost certainly be bluer in 2024 than 2020 (see 2022 Gov in Henry if you think I'm bs'ing). New 2024 voters who are 18-21 should be good for Dems (even if some vote third party).

GA is a good example of what will win out, polls or trends? If Biden ends up beating his polling, I can see GA being ground zero for this.  

That's a great analysis!

Another thing to remember is that even if Trump gains with some POC groups, Metro ATL will likely still shift left due to changes in demographics over the last four years.

For example, even if Biden does 10 points worth with Black voters, he'll probably still do better in places like Henry County compared to 2020 just because it's gotten a lot less white since then.

[heatcharger]

I think it is quite possible non-white, non-college turnout falls in 2024, along with a corresponding fall among WWC voters not really as enthusiastic at Trump's third run. This will hurt Dems in urban areas but may also hurt the GOP in rural GA, WI, PA, MI.

Evidence??

[Devils30]

I think it is quite possible non-white, non-college turnout falls in 2024, along with a corresponding fall among WWC voters not really as enthusiastic at Trump's third run. This will hurt Dems in urban areas but may also hurt the GOP in rural GA, WI, PA, MI.

Evidence??

2022 did not really have the WWC rural surge people predicted. The GOP gains from 2020 were entirely in densely populated blue states (CA, NY) and densely populated red states (FL). Yes, some of Trump's base will only show up for him but I am not sure if those casual voters he got who voted in 2020 but not 2016 will bother to show up again. These voters (mostly WWC) are what kept him in the game in MI,PA,WI.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.

One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.

well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?

I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."

For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.

Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.

I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.

While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.

I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.

2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.

The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.

I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.

And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.

I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.

1.7 million is black in metro atlanta



and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.

And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.



Don't believe me?

Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)

But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.

Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.

And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.

This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).

Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.



here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.



Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.

even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.

Except the 2020 trends in GA were backed up by 16 years of major swings toward Dems in the Atlanta metro. Warnock also replicated and expanded on Biden's coalition in the 2022 regular and runoff election. Turnout also dropped from the 2022 general to runoff but Warnock's margin increased.

These are not presidential elections, Trump wasn't on the ballot. That's not the same. Besides turnout for midterms are always lower than presidential years, and it's clear a lot of republicans here stayed home, esp. for the runoff.

Secondly, it's the raw vote margin that matters, not percentage. A percentage swing might increase with lower turnout but the raw vote margin might decrease (though that seems not like what happened in 2022). But it's Trump vs Biden, not Walker vs Warnock.

To give you an example, i'm 99% sure i would vote for Warnock if i lived in Georgia while i'm not that sure about Biden - as an example, and would be more inclined to not vote/write-in someone or something. Every election is unique.

I'm just confused by your analysis. Warnock had a turnout drop off in 2022, and he actually did better that Biden. So why couldn't Biden also build on his 2020 performance in GA if runs a good campaign? It's not as if those voters you speak of were all that excited about Biden in 2020 either...

Because rural GA also had a turnout collapse.

I think what they're arguing is if Atlanta has disproportionately poor turnout relative to the rest of GA. Imo that's unlikely, but it's what they're argument is from what I gather.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

[Devils30]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Biden should hold with college educated whites but non-college whites are a different story: if he does as poorly as Abrams or even Charlie Bailey with them he’s in trouble.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Agree, but black turnout in GA, mainly in metro ATL was higher in 2020 than 2012 even once you adjust for growth, albeit not by that much. Overall, I think the GOP has to start cutting Dem margins with black voters in GA and fast if they want to stay viable long term. Having 30%+ of the state be a group that historically votes 90-10 against you is not a good place to be, especially when you have growing numbers of other unfavorable groups like Hispanics, Asians and College Ed whites. Rmbr, GA is a majority-minority state now.

[Roll Roons]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Biden should hold with college educated whites but non-college whites are a different story: if he does as poorly as Abrams or even Charlie Bailey with them he’s in trouble.

I thought non-college whites in GA were already something close to 90% Republican. College whites were the demographic where Abrams underperformed Biden the most.

[Tekken_Guy]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Biden should hold with college educated whites but non-college whites are a different story: if he does as poorly as Abrams or even Charlie Bailey with them he’s in trouble.

I thought non-college whites in GA were already something close to 90% Republican. College whites were the demographic where Abrams underperformed Biden the most.

Trump got 79% of them while Kemp hit 83%.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

Honestly it wasn't until October when Dems actually started making a serious play for Georgia all of a sudden. For Dems after that point, it was viewed as a central key state the same way NC and FL were whereas for the GOP it was somewhat of a backwater state like Ohio or Iowa.

[Devils30]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

And Atlanta is growing while Philly, Milwaukee, Detroit stagnating or declining. Black turnout was actually way worse than 2012, but blacks were a larger % of 2020's eligible voter pool. The real GA difference was Biden getting 29-30% of whites instead of Obama's 23% and these white voters will probably stick with him against Trump.

Biden should hold with college educated whites but non-college whites are a different story: if he does as poorly as Abrams or even Charlie Bailey with them he’s in trouble.

I thought non-college whites in GA were already something close to 90% Republican. College whites were the demographic where Abrams underperformed Biden the most.

Trump got 79% of them while Kemp hit 83%.

The Kemp, Trump/Walker difference was more with college whites, non-whites than WWC but of course Kemp overpeformed with all groups. Kemp received the votes of moderates who will not go to Trump though.

[GAinDC]

Republicans haven’t won a federal race (the most partisan kind of race) in Georgia since 2016. Why is that?  And should that be a warning to Trump?

[Bush did 311]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1752416686332838287

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

GA has Atlanta the polls lie Trump isn't up 8 in GA just like he isn't  up 6 over Biden like Harris X wants us to believe

[GAinDC]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

[Cyrusman]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

To me, Trump treated GA in 2020 the way Clinton treated MI in 2016. Saw it as a state that was still "safeish" for 1 more cycle at least even though it was trending away from their party. I don't think Trump really even went to GA until the end of the campaign.
Probably why he was the angriest about GA flipping

[Tekken_Guy]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

I think the the senate losses can be explained by outside factors: catastrophic GOP turnout in North GA in the 2021 runoffs and Walker being a horrific candidate in 2022.

[GAinDC]

2020 could be GA's version of NC's 2008 moment. Republicans were caught sleeping and now that they know they have to fight to win it you'll see them turn out harder and campaign harder there in the coming years.

Republicans have already been fighting with everything they have to hold NC for the last 16 years.

That said, the demographic trends should be good for dems in both states. Both states could go red this time as it's a tailwind year for dems but by the 2030s I expect both to be blue or blue leaning swings, while demographics will benefit Rs in the rustbelt.

Thing is also, MAGA seems to fly worse in GA, while it has not been a hindrance in NC at all and in fact I'd say it aligns better with the conservative coalition in this state. Also if there's a polling error it is likely to be more wrong in GA--particularly if it comes from oversampling black conservatives.

Both states were won narrowly (less than half a point) except Obama '08 was winning the popular vote by 7+ points while Biden '20 won the popular vote by less than 5.

NC was farther away from the tipping point, which meant Republicans didn't really lose their grip on the state long-term but instead got swept up in that year's wave.

That Georgia flipped in a closer election and then reelected its Democratic senator in a Dem midterm  should be a little more worrisome for Republicans.

I think the the senate losses can be explained by outside factors: catastrophic GOP turnout in North GA in the 2021 runoffs and Walker being a horrific candidate in 2022.

Democrats have won FOUR races in Georgia in the last 2 cycles (6 if you count Warnock’s first place finish in each of his general elections) yet some people still rely on excuses and claim each win was a “fluke.”

A fluke win happens once in a blue moon (Indiana ‘08, Alabama Senate ‘17), not four times in two cycles.

I’m not saying GA is a blue state, but it sure ain’t a a red state anymore.